Cattle futures were lower again Thursday, with steady to lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the estimates considered, analysts expect August placements to be down about 3%, August marketing to be about 4% less and the Sept. 1 cattle on feed inventory to be about 2% higher year over year.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.52 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.25 lower.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light-to-moderate on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
FOB live prices were steady to $1 lower at mostly $223/cwt. in Nebraska and mostly $222 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady at mainly $350.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.66 lower Thursday afternoon at $372.15/cwt. Select was $2.69 lower at $351.88.
Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Thursday, perhaps with the lack of news direction and positioning ahead of the weekend.
Through late afternoon and the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 1¢ lower to fractionally higher. Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices bounced back Thursday, supported by tech stocks and declining oil prices and Treasury Yield rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 316 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 85 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 439 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.
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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) slashed projected feeder steer prices for the remainder of this year and next in the September Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO).
Compared to the previous month, prices were forecast $13 lower in the third quarter to $250/cwt. and $30 in the fourth quarter to $335 for an annual average price of $357.01, which was $10.75 lower. Prices are basis a Medium and Large #1 steer weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards.
“External forces are putting pressure on cattle markets, contributing to weaker prices,” ERS analysts say. “While the recent expansion of quotas allowing for reduced tariffs on imported lean beef trimmings adds to the mix, its direct impact on cattle prices is expected to be limited. That is because other major forces—like tight cattle supplies and less packing capacity—are still the main drivers of the market. Even so, supply fundamentals are expected to support cattle prices and limit declines in the coming year.”
For next year, compared to the previous month, feeder steer prices were forecast $30 lower in the first quarter to $340 and $35 in the second quarter to $340 for an annual average price of $342.50, which was $31.25 lower.
As noted in Cattle Current last week, the ERS sliced expected five-area direct weighted average fed steer prices for the second half of this year and the first half of 2027 in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Price forecasts declined on lower-than-expected packer demand.
“Monthly cattle slaughter has been running at historically low levels, ERS analysts explain in the latest LDPO. “Through August, U.S. slaughter per weekday has been running on average 8,000 head fewer per weekday than last year. This aligns with today’s smaller cattle herd and reduced feeder cattle imports from Mexico.”
Compared to the previous month, projected fed steer prices declined $12 in the third quarter to $230/cwt. and $10 in the fourth quarter to $225. This year’s forecast annual average price declined $8 to $237.75.
Next year’s projected annual average price was $11 lower at $238 with the first-quarter prices $10 lower at $235 and the second-quarter price $15 lower at $235.
That was with this year’s estimated beef production at 24.9 billion pounds, which would be 1.1 billion pounds less than last year (-4.3%).