Cattle futures took a breather from the steamy rally and closed lower Monday on likely profit taking.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.34 lower ($1.70 lower at the back to $3.52 lower toward the front).
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ lower (25¢ to $1.40 lower).
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $182-$183/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $184-$185 in Nebraska and $185 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $292.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 39¢ lower Monday afternoon at $305.32/cwt. Select was 29¢ higher at $283.41/cwt.
Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.
KC HRW Wheat closed 8¢ to 12¢ lower through Sep ‘25 and then 1¢ higher.
Soybean futures closed 15¢ to 23¢ lower.
******************************
Major U.S. financial indices trickled higher Monday as investors wait for this week’s FOMC meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 6 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 1 point.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed mixed, from 15¢ lower to 71¢ higher through the front six contracts.
******************************
Based on current price strength, USDA’s Economic Research Service left the third-quarter feeder steer price unchanged at $250/cwt. but increased the expected fourth-quarter price by $4 to $259/cwt., in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices were raised by $1 in the first and second quarter of next year at $249 and $248, respectively. The annual average price is projected at $225.99 this year and $253.75 next year.
“Over the last four weeks, wholesale boxed beef values have bounced back after retracting from this year’s highs set in June. However, fed cattle prices have not responded similarly,” say ERS analysts. “The August average price for fed steers in the five-area marketing region was $184.85/cwt., nearly flat since June but $41 higher year over year. This situation has allowed packer margins to improve during this time and coupled with expected higher seasonal beef demand and tightening fed cattle supplies, prices are not expected to fall further. As a result, the fed steer price forecast is unchanged at $178.50 and unchanged for next year at $186.”
Commercial beef production was forecast at 26.941 billion lbs. for this year, 40 million lbs. less than last month’s projection, based on a lower production outlook for the second half of the year.
“This is based on a slower expected pace of fed cattle marketing in September that is partially offset by higher expected cow slaughter for the rest of the year,” ERS analysts say. “As a result, the outlook for 2024 production remains unchanged from last month at 25.2 billion lbs.”