Cattle futures wandered on both sides of steady on Monday, favoring a slightly softer tone.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 35¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ lower across a wide range.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Last week, FOB live prices were $237/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas, $232-$235 in Nebraska and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365.
The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $4.86 lower at $232.65/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.91 lower at $364.97.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Monday afternoon at $370.68/cwt. Select was $3.55 lower at $348.89.
Corn and Soybean futures trended lower on Monday with harvest pressure.
Toward the close and through Jly contracts,
Corn futures were fractionally lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 107 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.03 to $2.53 lowerthrough the front six contracts, pressured by news that OPEC+ intends to increase production..
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Cash fed cattle prices are experiencing expected seasonal weakness as wholesale beef values decline and consumers move beyond the last official grilling day of the summer. Calf prices are turning more variable, too, as a wider variety of spring-born calves begin coming to town. But prices remain historically high for all classes, in response to dwindling cattle numbers and continued robust consumer beef demand. The fewest beef cows in decades and sluggish herd expansion mean the same bullish supply fundamentals should persist for at least a couple more years.
USDA’s National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary provides current price perspective. For the week ending Sept. 27, steers weighing 600-700 lbs. sold for an average price of $415.52/cwt. in the north-central region, which was $149.29 more year over year. For same-weight steers, the average was $391.76 in the south-central region and $359.81 in the Southeast, which was $129.78 and $120.77 more year over year, respectively.
More broadly, Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (K-State) offered price forecasts from the Livestock Marketing Information Center during the recent K-State Beef Stocker Conference. Projected average prices for Southern Plains steer calves weighing 500-600 lbs. are $395-$405/cwt. this year, $419-$431 next year and $427-442 in 2027. For feeder steers weighing 700-800 lbs. in the same region, prices are forecast to average $323-$328 this year, $344-356 next year and $352-$367 in 2027. That’s with the annual five-area direct weighted average fed steer price projected at $225-$230 this year, $239-$251 next year and $242-257 in 2027.
So, prices should continue to increase, but at a slower pace than the last couple of years.