Cattle futures were mixed to mainly higher on Tuesday.
Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 11¢ lower to an average of 28¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.62 higher.
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few transactions to trend, there were some early dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $348-$350/cwt.
Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $222/cwt. in Nebraska and mostly $221 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $345-$350.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.18 higher Tuesday afternoon at $382.66/cwt. Select was $6.25 higher at $364.48.
Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday.
Through late afternoon, and through the front four contracts, Soybean futures were 8¢ to 9¢ higher, helped by reports of Chinese demand. Corn futures were fractionally lower with likely harvest pressure. Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.
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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, as Treasury Yields continued their rise.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 131 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 22 points.
Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures (CME) were 48¢ to $3.49 lower through the front six contracts.
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Although the U.S. beef cow herd continued to be less year over year, according to the mid-year USDA Cattle report, some data suggests cattle numbers may be stabilizing at a cyclical low.
“Beef cow herd culling has been slowing since 2022 as producers have held cows longer. Beef cow slaughter decreased 40.5% from 2022 through 2025 and is down another 13.7% year over year thus far in 2026,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. “This corresponds to a decrease in the beef cow culling rate from a record high 13.2% in 2022 to a projected record low rate of 7.3% in 2026. The average beef herd culling rate over many years is 10.0%.”
Peel also points out sharp decreases in cow culling since 2023 mean that more older beef cows now populate the herd.
“Beef cow culling must increase soon, even though no significant heifer retention is indicated at this time,” Peel says in this weekly market comments. “This is punctuated by the extremely low culling rate in 2026. In data back to 1986, beef cow culling has only dropped below 8.0% twice before (2005 and 2015) and has never stayed below 8.0% for more than one year. After decreasing for four years, beef cow slaughter is likely to hold steady or increase in 2027 as old cows are culled. Unless sufficient replacement heifers are available, the beef cow herd will decline further in 2027.”
Peel notes data at the beginning of this year indicated a small increase of 42,000 head of beef replacement heifers. However, he explains, “The number of heifer calves is always lower than the number of bred heifers the following year, which implies that some additional heifers (not initially reported as replacements) must get bred each year. I refer to these extra heifers as “impulse heifer breeding” because these heifers are presumably redirected from the “other heifer” category and used for breeding rather than feeding.”
With that in mind, he calculates the number of bred heifers needs to increase 6-7% heading into 2027, assuming the beef cow herd increases slightly and that the cow culling rate rises above 8%.
On the other side of the gate, year-to-date federally inspected heifer slaughter is 11.2% less than the same time last year, according to Hannah Baker, Extension beef and forage economics specialist at the University of Florida.
“The decline in heifer slaughter does imply more heifers are being retained, but the percentage of heifers being slaughtered so far in 2026 is 30.7%,” Baker explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “When we started holding back heifers from 2012-2016 for the last expansion period, this percentage ranged from 28.6% to 25.6% before heifer slaughter began increasing again in 2017.”