Cattle Current Podcast—May 15, 2023

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, supported by lower corn prices suggested by the monthly World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.20 higher on Friday and an average of $6.53 higher week to week ($2.95 to $8.20 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.02 higher ($1.65 higher toward the front to 12¢ higher at the back). They were an average of $2.27 higher week to week on Friday ($1.82 higher at the back to $2.95 higher toward the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt., mostly steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at mainly $176 and $1 lower to $3 higher in the western Corn belt at $175-$177. Dressed prices were $1 lower in Nebraska at $280 and steady to $5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $280.

Estimated cattle slaughter last week of 646,000 head was 23,000 head more than the previous week but 15,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 11.9 million head was 386,000 head fewer (-3.1%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.8 billion pounds was 483.8 million pounds less (-4.7%).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.11 lower Friday afternoon at $304.61/cwt. Select was 10¢ higher at $284.68/cwt.

USDA’s Economic Research Service increased forecast fed steer prices (five-area direct) higher for the remainder of this year, in the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Prices were projected $3 higher in the second quarter at $172/cwt., and $2 higher in the third and fourth quarters at $164 and $169, respectively. The annual average price estimate increased $2 to $166.50.

“The 2023 cattle price forecast is raised on recent data and tighter supplies expected later in the year,” ERS analysts say. “For 2024, cattle prices are forecast above 2023 on tighter supplies.”

Estimated beef production this year would be 1.4 million pounds less than last year (-4.8%).