Stronger mid-week Cattle futures provided a boost to calf and feeder cattle prices at some auctions, but prices overall trended unevenly steady to $5/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Volume was hampered by market bearishness, as well as winter weather in the Northern and Southern Plains.
Thanks to strong gains Wednesday and Thursday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher week to week on Friday (from the previous Thursday).
“Though calf and feeder cattle prices are not immune to broader market signals, the cash market for calves and feeder cattle has held up nicely compared to the futures market,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.
With that said, increasing cattle numbers, the atypical percentage of calves placed on feed early due to drought and the recent tariff tiff between China and the U.S. add to market uncertainty.
“Feeder cattle are caught in a bottleneck of lower fed cattle prices, increasing supplies of fed cattle, sharply lower cattle futures and record supplies of competing meats,” AMS analysts say. “Until the fed cattle market finds a bottom and Live Cattle futures find support…and fund selling stops, feeder cattle prices will continue to be volatile until, in most cases, they align with profitable returns on fed cattle.”
Negotiated cash fed cattle prices sagged $2-$3 lower on a live basis last week in the Southern Plains at $117-$118/cwt. Early in the week, prices were as much as $6 lower in Nebraska at $114; there were a few trades there on Friday at $118, but too few to trend. Dressed sales were $2-$7 lower at $184-$188.
Except for $1.52 and 25¢ lower in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ higher week to week on Friday.
“June and August Live Cattle contracts spent some time under $100 this week before barreling back. At this juncture, it would seem that it would be difficult to push finished cattle prices below the $100/cwt. this summer,” Griffith says. “The summer months will drag cash prices for finished cattle lower as is normally expected, but below $100 seems like a stretch.”
In the meantime, grilling season can’t arrive soon enough for wholesale beef values, which continued to erode last week.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.73 lower week to week on Friday at $214.31 per cwt. Select was $3.09 lower at $205.60. These values remain higher year over year.
Heading into the new week, the brewing trade war between the U.S. and China will continue to maintain center stage in both commodity and equity markets.
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Apr. 6 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
131,900 (-33,000) |
31,500 (-5,500) |
33,300 (+33,300) |
196,700 (-5,200) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Apr. 5 | Change |
| $135.41 | – 0.31 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 6 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $163.34 | + $1.37 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $145.47 | – $0.71 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $133.43 | – $0.18 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 6 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $165.62 | – $4.68 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $154.20 | – $1.79 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $140.46 | + $0.26 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 6 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $164.06 | – $1.30 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $152.57 | – $3.04 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $141.71 | – $2.13 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Apr. 6 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $214.31 | – $6.73 |
| Select | $205.60 | – $3.09 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $8.71 | – $3.64 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Apr. 6 | Change |
| Apr | $135.325 | + $2.000 |
| May | $135.625 | + $1.600 |
| Aug | $141.450 | + $1.025 |
| Sep | $142.300 | + $0.975 |
| Oct | $142.625 | + $1.125 |
| Nov | $142.600 | + $1.500 |
| Jan ’19 | $138.850 | + $1.400 |
| Mar | $135.975 | + $2.175 |
| Live Cattle | Apr. 6 | Change |
| Apr | $112.225 | – $1.525 |
| Jun | $102.325 | – $0.250 |
| Aug | $102.775 | + $1.300 |
| Oct | $106.700 | + $1.275 |
| Dec | $111.150 | + $1.125 |
| Feb ’19 | $112.550 | + $0.200 |
| Apr | $113.325 | + $0.550 |
| Jun | $107.650 | + $0.550 |
| Aug | $106.875 | + $0.625 |
| Corn futures | Apr. 6 | Change |
| May | $3.884 | + $0.008 |
| Jul | $3.970 | + $0.008 |
| Sep | $4.040 | + $0.008 |
| Dec | $4.124 | + $0.010 |
| Mar ’19 | $4.200 | + $0.018 |
| May | $4.244 | + $0.022 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Apr. 6 | Change |
| May | $62.06 | – $2.88 |
| Jun | $62.10 | – $2.77 |
| Jul | $61.96 | – $2.58 |
| Aug | $61.64 | – $2.40 |
| Sep | $61.26 | – $2.22 |
| Oct | $60.87 | – $2.05 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Apr. 6 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 23932.76 | – 170.35 |
| NASDAQ | 6915.11 | – 148.33 |
| S&P 500 | 2604.47 | – 36.40 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 90.13 | + 0.06 |