Stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and improving Cattle futures for much of the week provided support for calf and feeder cattle prices.
In the Northern Plains and Southern Plains, feeder steers and heifers sold steady to $4/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). They sold $3-$6 higher in the Southeast.
Other than $2.07 lower in spot Apr and 2¢ lower in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ lower week to week on Friday.
Cattle futures swooned on Thursday with apparent continued long liquidation by funds and positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).
Negotiated cash fed cattle prices in the Southern Plains were $2-$4 on Thursday at mostly $121/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and at $122 in Kansas.
After $2.80 higher in spot Apr and 7¢ higher in near Jun, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ lower week to week on Friday, except for narrowly mixed in the back three contracts.
One wildcard going forward is the number of calves remaining in the country to be placed, given the apparently large placements early, due to drought in the southern Plains.
Another wonderment is how much tonnage extreme winter weather conditions sucked out of the Northern Plains.
Wholesale beef values continued to linger, in wait of warmer weather and the seasonal uptick in demand. Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower week to week on Friday at $211.98 per cwt. Select was 22¢ higher at $200.13.
Feedlot Placement Decline
Logic suggests Friday’s Cattle on Feed report should be viewed as neutral.
Placements in March of 1.92 million head were 9.26% less (196,000 head fewer) than last year. That’s for feedlots with a one-time capacity of 10,000 head or more. Estimates ahead of the report expected a decline in placements of 9-12% less. In terms of weight composition, 31.24% were placed on feeds at weights less than 699 lbs.; 55.2% weighed 700-899 lbs.; 13.53% weighed more than 900 lbs.
Marketings in March of 1.84 million head were 3.87% less (74,000 head fewer) than last year. Ahead of the report, analysts expected a decline of 4-5%.
Total cattle on feed of 11.73 million head, were 7.42% more (810,000 head more) than last year. The average expectation of analysts ahead of the report was for an increase of 7.1-7.6%. It’s the second-highest total for Apr. 1 since the series began in 1996.
The on-feed mix Apr. 1 was 64.24% steers and 35.76% heifers, with heifers representing 2.07% more of the total than last year.
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Apr. 20 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
182,800 (-22,600) |
62,500 (+9,200) |
700 (-17,900) |
246,000 (-31,300) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Apr. 19 | Change |
| $136.56 | + 0.14 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 20 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $164.05 | + $0.71 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $148.41 | + $2.94 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $137.46 | + $4.03 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 20 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $168.99 | + $3.37 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $155.83 | + $1.63 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $141.41 | + $0.95 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 13 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $169.83 | + $5.77 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $157.53 | + $4.96 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $144.06 | + $2.35 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Apr. 20 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $211.98 | – $0.63 |
| Select | $200.13 | + $0.22 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $11.85 | – $0.85 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Apr. 20 | Change |
| Apr | $137.300 | – $2.075 |
| May | $139.325 | – $1.050 |
| Aug | $144.500 | – $0.600 |
| Sep | $145.575 | – $1.000 |
| Oct | $146.200 | – $0.700 |
| Nov | $145.800 | – $0.450 |
| Jan ’19 | $141.850 | – $0.250 |
| Mar | $139.350 | – $0.025 |
| Live Cattle | Apr. 20 | Change |
| Apr | $119.350 | + $2.800 |
| Jun | $103.725 | + $0.075 |
| Aug | $103.800 | – $0.475 |
| Oct | $108.150 | – $0.575 |
| Dec | $112.675 | – $0.275 |
| Feb ’19 | $114.250 | – $0.550 |
| Apr | $115.300 | – $0.150 |
| Jun | $108.825 | + $0.025 |
| Aug | $107.475 | – $0.375 |
| Corn futures | Apr. 20 | Change |
| May | $3.764 | – $0.098 |
| Jul | $3.854 | – $0.090 |
| Sep | $3.930 | – $0.084 |
| Dec | $4.024 | – $0.082 |
| Mar ’19 | $4.102 | – $0.080 |
| May | $4.144 | – $0.080 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Apr. 20 | Change |
| May | $68.38 | + $0.99 |
| Jun | $68.40 | + $1.07 |
| Jul | $68.18 | + $1.18 |
| Aug | $67.66 | + $1.21 |
| Sep | $67.05 | + $1.20 |
| Oct | $66.43 | + $1.20 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Apr. 20 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 24462.94 | + 102.80 |
| NASDAQ | 7146.13 | + 39.48 |
| S&P 500 | 2670.14 | + 13.84 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 90.32 | + 0.53 |