Markets firmed, helped along by significantly higher wholesale beef values and the gap in harvest-ready supplies in the short term.
Calves and yearlings sold fully steady to $5/cwt. higher, with instances of $7-$10 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).
“The previous week’s higher fed cattle market and a neutral to slightly bullish Cattle on Feed Report caused feeder prices to come out of the gate with active bidding and good demand,” AMS analysts say. “Demand remains very good for
steer calves weighing 400-650 lbs. Most top quality 600-750 lb. steers that are long-timed weaned, with good weighing conditions and suitable for grass are in very good demand.”
Not counting newly-minted away Apr, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.30 higher week to week on Friday.
“The futures market has already priced in a seasonal price increase for feeder cattle, which may or may not come to fruition,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The basic thought is that the seasonal tendency will remain and feeder cattle prices will move higher from May through August. At this point there is very little reason to be bearish on this expectation. In actuality, one might have a tendency to be a little bullish towards this market since prices have held serve with strong cattle on feed numbers and several international trade issues.”
Negotiated cash fed cattle prices moved higher on Friday, after a softer feel the day before. Live sales in the Southern Plains were $2-$3 higher than the previous week at $124/cwt., on active trade and good demand. There were too few transactions to trend elsewhere, but demand was strong, suggesting higher prices in the Northern Plains and western Corn Belt, too.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.86 higher week to week on Friday (62¢ higher to $5.10 higher in spot Apr).
“The talk around cattle pens is not about how impressive live cattle prices are but how steep a discount June Live Cattle futures are relative to current cash prices,” Griffith says. “The live cattle market is experiencing a record-strong basis for the June contract. Currently, cash live cattle trade is $17/cwt. higher than where the June contract is trading.”
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $9.76 higher week to week on Friday at $221.74/cwt. Select was $4.19 higher at $204.32.
“Boxed beef cut-out values appear to have bottomed and are on the rise with
excellent movement,” AMS analysts say. “Retailers have shifted their focus to beef as cutout values rallied this week and are expected to move higher. Spring has been delayed, but we are entering a period of warmer weather. Increase in foodservice and retail demand comes with warm weather and incites consumers to venture out and dust off the grills with Mother’s Day, graduations, Father’s Day and Memorial weekend around the corner.”
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Apr. 27 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
234,500 (+51,700) |
58,100 (-4,400) |
3,600 (+2,900) |
296,200 (+50,200) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Apr. 26 | Change |
| $139.99 | + 3.43 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 27 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $168.73 | + $4.68 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $152.30 | + $3.89 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $140.27 | + $2.81 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 27 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $169.92 | + $0.93 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $159.08 | + $3.25 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $144.15 | + $2.74 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Apr. 27 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $170.21 | + $0.38 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $159.06 | + $1.53 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $147.47 | + $3.41 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Apr. 27 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $221.74 | + $9.76 |
| Select | $204.32 | + $4.19 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $17.42 | + $5.57 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Apr. 27 | Change |
| Apr | $139.900 | + $2.600 |
| May | $142.025 | + $2.700 |
| Aug | $148.250 | + $3.750 |
| Sep | $148.350 | + $2.775 |
| Oct | $148.200 | + $2.000 |
| Nov | $147.275 | + $1.475 |
| Jan ’19 | $143.275 | + $1.425 |
| Mar | $141.000 | + $1.650 |
| Live Cattle | Apr. 27 | Change |
| Apr | $124.450 | + $5.100 |
| Jun | $107.000 | + $3.725 |
| Aug | $105.975 | + $2.175 |
| Oct | $109.400 | + $1.250 |
| Dec | $113.800 | + $1.125 |
| Feb ’19 | $115.375 | + $1.125 |
| Apr | $115.925 | + $0.625 |
| Jun | $109.450 | + $0.625 |
| Aug | $108.500 | + $1.025 |
| Corn futures | Apr. 27 | Change |
| May | $3.894 | + $0.130 |
| Jul | $3.984 | + $0.130 |
| Sep | $4.054 | + $0.124 |
| Dec | $4.144 | + $0.120 |
| Mar ’19 | $4.220 | + $0.118 |
| May | $4.262 | + $0.118 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Apr. 27 | Change |
| Jun | $68.10 | – $0.30 |
| Jul | $67.98 | – $0.20 |
| Aug | $67.63 | – $0.03 |
| Sep | $67.10 | + $0.05 |
| Oct | $66.52 | + $0.09 |
| Nov | $65.97 | + $0.12 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Apr. 27 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 24311.19 | – 151.75 |
| NASDAQ | 7119.80 | – 26.33 |
| S&P 500 | 2669.71 | – 0.23 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 91.50 | + 1.18 |