Cattle Current Weekly Highlights—Week ending Dec. 13, 2019

Cattle Current Weekly Highlights—Week ending Dec. 13, 2019

Steers and heifers sold steady to $3/cwt. lower last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Demand was moderate to good in most regions as cattle feeders looked to fill orders to take advantage of the market reflected in the 2020 CME Live Cattle contracts,” said AMS analysts. “With the holidays and end of the year fast approaching, many auction barns had heavy runs as marketing opportunities will be limited after next week.”

In Tennessee, for instance, Andrew P. Griffith notes auction receipts were atypically high the last couple of weeks.

“Many producers that hold onto cattle into December generally hold them until the beginning of the next year since there is generally a bump in prices and for tax reasons,” Griffith explains, in his weekly market comments. “What makes strong receipts even more puzzling is that soft prices continue to dominate the market. Many cattle producers continue to be disappointed in calf and feeder cattle prices but continue to sell calves.” He expects resource constraints are part of the explanation.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.06 higher week to week on Friday ($1.45 higher toward the back to $4.57 higher near the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade continued to develop through Friday afternoon at no worse than steady money, according to USDA reports. Early live sales were at $119/cwt. in Nebraska and at $120 in the western Corn Belt. Early dressed sales were steady in the western Corn Belt at $188 and as much as $6 higher in Nebraska at $188-$194. Earlier in the week, live sales were steady in Kansas at $119. The Texas Cattle Feeders Association reported its members selling steers steady at $119 and heifers $1 higher at nearly $119.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.94 higher week to week on Friday ($1.42 to $2.85 higher).

In the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA increased the projected average fed steer price (5-area-direct) in the fourth quarter by $3 to $115/cwt., compared to the previous month. The estimated annual average price for 2019 increased $1 to $117.

For next year, the average fed steer price is projected $2 higher at $122 in the first-quarter; $1 higher in the second quarter at $118; $1 lower in the third quarter at $112. Next year’s annual average price was estimated $1 higher at $117.

Wholesale beef values continued searching for a seasonal bottom. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.27 lower week to week on Friday at $216.29/cwt. Select was $3.06 lower at $204.24.

“The all fresh beef retail value registered at $5.82/lb. in November which is 4.5¢ higher than the previous month and nearly 12¢ higher than November a year ago,” Griffith says. “The Choice beef retail value for November was even more impressive as it was $6.06/lb., which represented more than a 17¢ increase from October and a 15¢ increase from one year ago. The expectation could be for retail value of beef to continue escalating given that wholesale beef prices in November were 7.7% percent higher than the previous month. Another factor that may soon influence retail beef prices is the announced deal with China that sent equity markets soaring. It is difficult to fathom that a deal with China will result in a lot of U.S. beef going to China, but it could help clear some pork and poultry stocks which would pull down some of the meat protein stocks. This is a situation that is worthy of beef cattle producers’ attention as it could provide sup-port or continue to weigh on the market.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

 

Dec. 13 Auction Direct

Video/net

Total
 

347,200

(+60,300)

34,400

(+8,400)

1,900

(-54,800)

383,500

(+13,900)

 

CME Feeder Index

CME Feeder Index* Dec. 12 Change
  $143.40 –  $1.09

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

 

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

Steers-Cash Dec. 13 Change
600-700 lbs. $151.57 –  $0.50
700-800 lbs. $145.33 –  $1.43
800-900 lbs. $144.65 –  $1.68

 

South Central

Steers-Cash Dec. 13 Change
500-600 lbs. $150.59 –  $4.73
600-700 lbs. $144.56 –  $1.28
700-800 lbs. $143.73 + $0.06

 

Southeast

Steers-Cash Dec. 13 Change
400-500 lbs. $146.57 –  $0.58
500-600 lbs. $133.77 –  $3.59
600-700 lbs. $132.48 + $0.88

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

 

Wholesale Beef Value

Boxed Beef  (p.m.) Dec. 13 ($/cwt) Change
Choice $216.29 –  $8.27
Select $204.24 –  $3.06
Ch-Se Spread $12.05 –  $5.21

 

Futures

Feeder Cattle  Dec. 13 Change
Jan ’20 $145.675 + $4.125
Mar $146.250 + $4.575
Apr $148.050 + $4.275
May $148.600 + $3.525
Aug $152.900 + $2.825
Sep $153.000 + $2.100
Oct $152.850 + $1.450
Nov $152.450 + $1.600

 

Live Cattle   Dec. 13 Change
Dec $122.375 + $2.175
Feb ’20 $127.550 + $2.575
Apr $128.200 + $2.850
Jun $119.425 + $2.275
Aug $116.400 + $1.700
Oct $117.675 + $1.550
Dec $119.900 + $1.425
Feb ’21 $121.775 + $1.425
Apr $122.275 + $1.525

 

Corn futures Dec. 13 Change
Dec $3.662 –  $0.002
Mar ’20 $3.810 + $0.044
May $3.880 + $0.056
Jul $3.936 + $0.070
Sep $3.930 + $0.064
Dec $3.952 + $0.050

 

Oil CME-WTI Dec. 13 Change
Jan ’20 $60.07 + $0.87
Feb $59.98 + $0.88
Mar $59.67 + $0.89
Apr $59.26 + $0.89
May $58.80 + $0.88
Jun $58.33 + $0.90

 

Equities

Equity Indexes Dec. 13 Change
Dow Industrial Average  28135.88 + 120.82
NASDAQ   8734.88 +   78.35
S&P 500   3168.80 +   22.89
Dollar (DXY)        97.18 –      0.50
2019-12-14T19:11:55-06:00

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