Follow through pressure on Cattle futures for most of the week and heavy auction volume helped pressure cash calf and feeder cattle prices last week. Nationwide, feeder steers and heifers sold mostly $5-$10/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). There were instances of $15 lower. The exception was steady to $5 lower for steer and heifer calves weighing less than 550 lbs.
“Livestock markets are getting back to normal schedules after the holidays,” noted AMS analysts. “Auction receipts of 372,300 were the largest auction volume reported since 2010.”
Except for $2.27 lower in spot Jan and 5¢ lower in Aug, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average 54¢ higher week to week on Friday (22¢ to $1.02 higher).
Cash fed cattle prices trended lower with some cattle feeders taking advantage of the basis and looking to trade cattle early in the week before expected winter storms. AMS analysts added, “Some feedlots had limited interest in procuring large numbers of cattle with another round of bone-chilling temps headed their way.”
Cash fed cattle prices were mostly $1 lower, but as much as $3 lower at mainly $120/cwt. Dressed trade was mostly $1-$3 lower at $192.
“Packers did try to make up some ground after the holidays and harvested 611,000 cattle this week; 2,000 more than the same week a year ago,” say AMS analysts.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of 82¢ lower (30¢ to $1.87 lower in spot Feb).
“The expectation for beef production to remain strong the next several months will continue to put pressure on finished cattle prices,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Some of this pressure may be relieved once spring arrives, but it is difficult to tell how the winter will impact finished weights and how many cattle will be available to go on feed in the near term.”
Although wholesale beef prices were little changed week to week, they appear to be past a seasonal peak.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 lower week to week on Friday at $208.23; Select was 68¢ lower at $201.64.
“The ability to hold prices steady should be considered a win, given beef production totals and weather events negatively impacting much of the East Coast and the Northeast regions of the United States,” Griffith says. “Anytime big population centers are slowed by winter weather, pressure is put on the beef industry. When a weather event hits simultaneously with strong beef production, further downward pressure is asserted. There will continue to be struggles in January and February to push beef prices higher as much of the focus will be on end meats. This focus will result in the Choice Select spread continuing to narrow.”
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Jan. 12 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
372,300 (+256,300) |
39,800 (+18,400) |
118,200 (+112,600) |
530,300 (+387,300) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Jan. 11 | Change |
| $146.80 | -8.40 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Jan. 12 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $165.09 | – $4.38 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $159.59 | – $0.69 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $145.62 | – $8.04 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Jan. 12 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $165.91 | – $7.29 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $153.17 | – $8.34 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $144.87 | – $9.23 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Jan. 12 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $165.53 | – $14.73 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $156.04 | – $6.69 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $145.27 | – $5.29 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Jan. 12 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $208.23 | – $1.28 |
| Select | $201.64 | – $0.68 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $6.59 | – $0.60 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Jan. 12 | Change |
| Jan | $144.350 | – $2.275 |
| Mar | $142.650 | + $0.675 |
| Apr | $143.000 | + $0.650 |
| May | $142.700 | + $0.450 |
| Aug | $145.750 | – $0.050 |
| Sep | $145.725 | + $0.225 |
| Oct | $145.275 | + $0.225 |
| Nov | $144.925 | + $1.025 |
| Live Cattle | Dec. Jan. 12 | Change |
| Feb | $117.375 | – $1.875 |
| Apr | $119.450 | – $1.400 |
| Jun | $111.625 | – $0.700 |
| Aug | $109.050 | – $0.350 |
| Oct | $110.375 | – $0.550 |
| Dec | $112.375 | – $0.750 |
| Feb ’19 | $113.725 | – $0.300 |
| Apr | $113.750 | – $0.575 |
| Jun | $107.175 | – $0.850 |
| Corn futures | Jan. 12 | Change |
| Mar | $3.462 | – $0.050 |
| May | $3.546 | – $0.046 |
| Jul | $3.626 | – $0.048 |
| Sep | $3.706 | – $0.046 |
| Dec | $3.804 | – $0.040 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.896 | – $0.044 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Jan. 12 | Change |
| Feb | $64.30 | + $2.86 |
| Mar | $64.23 | + $2.82 |
| Apr | $64.03 | + $2.73 |
| May | $63.77 | + $2.62 |
| Jun | $63.44 | + $2.51 |
| Jul | $63.05 | + $2.43 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Jan. 12 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 25803.19 | + 507.32 |
| NASDAQ | 7261.06 | + 124.50 |
| S&P 500 | 2786.24 | + 43.09 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 90.97 | – 1.04 |