Calves and feeder cattle traded steady to higher with improving weather during the week and stronger futures for most of the week.
Specifically, steer calves sold $5-$10/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Heifer calves, as well as yearling steers and heifers sold steady to $5 higher.
“The supply of feeders was moderate to heavy, made up of mostly fall calves in the 500-750 lb. range,” AMS analysts say. “Receipts are always generally heavy if weather cooperates this time of year, but dry conditions and lack of water are causing several producers to market cattle a few weeks earlier than they might typically prefer.”
Dwindling wheat pastures in places like Kansas and Oklahoma serve as the most visible affirmation of the fact. Although some of those cattle are moving under the same ownership, AMS analysts say, “Cattle that are coming to the barns are being eagerly absorbed with many orders existing for summer grazing cattle as there is plenty of optimism that rains will come and grass will grow.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average $2.01 higher week to week on Friday.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.54 higher week to week on Friday (80¢ to $2.75 higher in spot Feb).
That was after a sudden and steep selloff on Thursday, for no apparent reason, before bouncing back on Friday.
The unexpected stutter in futures prices and wonderments about the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report to be issued late Friday helped stymie cash fed cattle trade through Friday afternoon.
Logic suggests a neutral to slightly bearish reaction to the COF heading into the new week. Although December placements were higher than expected, they were a far cry from the double-digit increases of recent months.
Wholesale beef values held their ground.
“Beef demand has been very supportive of the markets as shown by the Cold
Storage report released last week,” AMS analysts say. “Even with a larger herd nationwide, the industry is doing a great job keeping product moving.”
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.97 higher week to week on Friday at $206.83; Select was $1.67 higher at $201.83.
“Though beef movement has been slowed by weather, boxed beef prices reversed direction this week and moved to the upside,” noted Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “How long price increases can be sustained during a time period that generally experiences seasonal declines in demand is not known. Price support in January and February is generally led by end meats before succumbing to strength of middle meats in the spring and summer months. The price strength being witnessed this January may just be another sign of strong beef demand, which has been persistent since 2015. It is likely the market will experience another downturn before making a run in the spring.”
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Jan. 26 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
283,400 (+58,400) |
83,800 (+32,700) |
20,200 (+17,800) |
387,400 (+108,900) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Jan. 25 | Change |
| $147.06 | – 0.95 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Jan. 26 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $169.39 | + $4.40 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $154.18 | + $1.42 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $146.06 | + $0.91 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Jan. 26 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $172.54 | + $4.23 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $159.25 | + $1.60 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $148.33 | + $0.10 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $142.47 | – $0.77 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Jan. 26 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $170.03 | + $9.56 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $157.26 | + $5.19 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $145.63 | + $0.31 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Jan. 26 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $206.83 | + $1.97 |
| Select | $201.83 | + $1.67 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $5.00 | + $0.30 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Jan. 26 | Change |
| Mar | $147.625 | + $2.025 |
| Apr | $147.225 | + $1.150 |
| May | $147.050 | + $1.250 |
| Aug | $150.050 | + $1.875 |
| Sep | $150.350 | + $2.350 |
| Oct | $150.650 | + $3.075 |
| Nov | $149.975 | + $2.350 |
| Jan ’19 | $146.250 | n/a |
| Live Cattle | Dec. Jan. 26 | Change |
| Feb | $124.600 | + $2.700 |
| Apr | $124.625 | + $2.350 |
| Jun | $116.175 | + $1.450 |
| Aug | $113.050 | + $1.025 |
| Oct | $114.250 | + $1.275 |
| Dec | $116.375 | + $1.425 |
| Feb ’19 | $117.500 | + $1.575 |
| Apr | $116.950 | + $1.300 |
| Jun | $109.575 | + $0.800 |
| Corn futures | Jan. 26 | Change |
| Mar | $3.564 | + $0.040 |
| May | $3.650 | + $0.044 |
| Jul | $3.732 | + $0.042 |
| Sep | $3.806 | + $0.042 |
| Dec | $3.894 | + $0.038 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.984 | + $0.038 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Jan. 26 | Change |
| Mar | $66.14 | + $2.83 |
| Apr | $65.97 | + $2.81 |
| May | $65.67 | + $2.71 |
| Jun | $65.26 | + $2.58 |
| Jul | $64.76 | + $2.43 |
| Aug | $64.20 | + $2.27 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Jan. 26 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 26616.71 | + 544.99 |
| NASDAQ | 7505.77 | + 169.39 |
| S&P 500 | 2872.87 | + 62.57 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 89.01 | – 1.68 |