There were no price trends for calves and feeder cattle last week, with most auctions closed in observance of Independence Day. At the few auctions that did take place, trends were mainly higher, sharply higher in some cases.
“Moisture is much needed in the heart of the country as 49% of the U.S. is now classified as a D0 drought designation or worse,” noted analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.93 higher week to week on Friday (87¢ higher in spot Aug to $3.25 higher in the back contract).
Calf and feeder prices may get a boost from Friday’s sharply higher cash fed cattle trade.
Live trade was $5-$6 higher in the Southern Plains at mostly $112-$113/cwt. In Nebraska and the western Corn Belt, it was $3-$7 higher at $112-$114. Dressed trade was $5-$11 higher at $175-$180.
Not counting recently minted away-Dec, week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed unchanged to 40¢ lower through the front three contracts and then an average of 85¢ higher (20¢ to $1.05 higher).
“Fed cattle movement in June was strong as cattle slaughter continues moving along at a pretty good clip averaging 655,000 head for the four full weeks in the month,” explained AMS analysts.
Wholesale beef values continued their seasonal decline. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.93 lower week to week on Friday at $208.03/cwt. Select was 14¢ higher at $198.71. The Choice-Select spread narrowed $4.07 to $9.32.
Total red meat production under federal inspection this week was estimated at 868.9 million lbs., according to AMS. That was 12.2% less than last week, but 3.9% more than a year ago. Year-to-date cumulative meat production was estimated 3.5% more than last year.
Heading into next week, plenty of eyes will be turned toward the potential impact of U.S. and Chinese counter-tariffs that went into effect Friday.
“Despite beef production up nearly 4% so far this year, beef demand has been quite strong and has limited beef and cattle price pressure in the first half of the year,” explained Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Domestic beef demand has been buoyed by strong macroeconomic performance, including a declining unemployment rate. Foreign demand for U.S. beef has boosted total beef demand with a 13% year-to-date increase in beef exports through April. Strong year-to-date beef export increases have been led by South Korea, Mexico, Hong Kong, and Taiwan with number one Japan up slightly this year.”
Moreover, Tanner Ehmke, manager of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division (KED) explains, “Trade concerns pose the single greatest risk to the projected global economic growth of 3-4%. The U.S. and China have been driving the growth, benefitting emerging markets around the globe. A trade war between the two is dangerous for economies around the world.”
The most recent Rural Economic Review from CoBank’s KED, notes 70% of U.S. agriculture exports go to destinations that are in current negotiation or trade disputes.
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts July 6 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
17,000 (-165,800) |
34,300 (-13,100) |
29,000 (-37,800) |
80,300 (-216,700) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | July 5 | Change |
| $145.15 | + 3.15 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | July 6 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $177.96 | + $3.10 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $160.00 | – $0.65 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $143.50 | + $1.50 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | July 6 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $164.15 | + $3.84 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $157.66 | + $4.35 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $148.43 | + $4.10 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | July 6 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $149.62 | – $7.99 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $154.54 | + $5.13 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $147.47 | + $5.92 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | July 6 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $208.03 | – $3.93 |
| Select | $198.71 | + $0.14 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $9.32 | – $4.07 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | July 6 | Change |
| Aug | $152.200 | + $0.875 |
| Sep | $152.275 | + $1.325 |
| Oct | $152.150 | + $2.075 |
| Nov | $152.025 | + $2.275 |
| Jan ’19 | $149.375 | + $1.725 |
| Mar | $148.100 | + $1.875 |
| Apr | $148.550 | + $2.075 |
| May | $148.100 | + $3.250 |
| Live Cattle | July 6 | Change |
| Aug | $106.375 | – $0.350 |
| Oct | $109.625 | – $0.400 |
| Dec | $113.700 | -0- |
| Feb ’19 | $116.525 | + $0.200 |
| Apr | $118.250 | + $0.950 |
| Jun | $111.150 | + $1.000 |
| Aug | $110.000 | + $1.025 |
| Oct | $111.600 | + $1.050 |
| Dec | $113.100 | n/a |
| Corn futures | July 6 | Change |
| Jul | $3.516 | + $0.014 |
| Sep | $3.602 | + $0.008 |
| Dec | $3.730 | + $0.018 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.832 | + $0.020 |
| May | $3.900 | + $0.020 |
| Jul | $3.964 | + $0.022 |
| Oil CME-WTI | July 6 | Change |
| Aug | $73.80 | – $0.35 |
| Sep | $71.57 | – $0.89 |
| Oct | $69.14 | – $1.78 |
| Nov | $68.50 | – $1.66 |
| Dec | $68.04 | – $1.45 |
| Jan | $67.62 | – $1.23 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | July 6 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 24456.48 | + 185.07 |
| NASDAQ | 7688.39 | + 178.09 |
| S&P 500 | 2759.82 | + 41.45 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 94.39 | + 0.39 |