Feeder steers and heifers sold $1-$5/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS); as much as $8 lower on lighter calves in the Southeast. AMS analysts described demand as moderate to good.
“The calf and feeder cattle market are really beginning to be muddled, between a softening finished cattle market and grass fever purchases. This has resulted in a very unsettled market with uncertainty among many in the industry,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.
Except for $1.92 lower in expiring March, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.40 lower week to week on Thursday; about $11 lower over the last three weeks.
Although futures found some mid-week traction, surging grain prices on Thursday—in response to fewer estimated acres of corn and soybeans—pressured Cattle futures sharply lower. Sharply lower cash fed cattle prices added bearishness.
Live prices were $5 lower in the Southern Plains at $121/cwt.; $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $120-$122. Dressed trade ended in Nebraska at $190, which was $10-$13 less than the previous week.
“Fed cattle supplies increasing in the weeks ahead and anticipation of lower prices has been the focus of this cattle market. Packers bought the second largest weekly total of cattle purchased for 15 to 30-day delivery since the data series started in March of 2010,” AMS analysts say. “Significant equity vanished from the Cattle complex in recent weeks as feedlot managers trade a substantial amount of cattle out front for future delivery in order to lock in a price ahead of the normal calf-feds hitting the supply chain from late April to early May.”
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.62 lower through the front five contracts week to week on Thursday and then an average of $2.42 lower.
“Volatility throughout the futures markets this week held the bulls in check as the bears solidly took over,” AMS analysts say. “The June Live Cattle contract closed on Thursday at the lowest value since late April 2017.”
Increasing beef production also pressured wholesale beef values.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower week to week on Friday at $221.04 per cwt. Select was $7.71 lower at $208.69.
Through February, AMS analysts say cattle slaughter is 4.7% more than the same period last year at nearly 5.1 million head; 9.7% more than the three-year average and the most since 2013.
“Federally inspected beef production is up 2.6% year to date, which is an increase of 147 million pounds of beef,” says Griffith. “Similarly, federally inspected pork production has seen an increase of 197 million pounds, or an increase of 3.3% year to date. The negative price pressure is expected to continue as cattle dressed weights continue to exceed year-ago levels and more animals are expected to be harvested.”
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Mar. 30 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
164,900 (-29,200) |
37,000 (-40,400) |
0 (-25,000) |
201,900 (-94,600) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Mar. 28 | Change |
| $136.21 | – 3.18 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Mar. 30 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $161.97 | – $2.83 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $146.18 | – $0.71 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $133.61 | – $1.95 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Mar. 30 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $170.30 | – $0.99 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $155.99 | – $0.71 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $140.20 | – $0.29 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Mar. 30 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $165.36 | – $8.52 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $155.61 | – $7.51 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $143.84 | – $4.11 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Mar. 30 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $221.04 | – $2.05 |
| Select | $208.69 | – $7.71 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $12.35 | + $5.86 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Mar. 29 | Change |
| Mar | $135.600 | – $1.925 |
| Apr | $133.325 | – $4.700 |
| May | $134.025 | – $4.500 |
| Aug | $140.425 | – $3.825 |
| Sep | $141.325 | – $4.225 |
| Oct | $141.500 | – $4.300 |
| Nov | $141.100 | – $4.700 |
| Jan ’19 | $137.450 | – $4.550 |
| Live Cattle | Mar. 29 | Change |
| Apr | $113.750 | – $4.400 |
| Jun | $102.575 | – $5.825 |
| Aug | $101.475 | – $4.900 |
| Oct | $105.425 | – $4.475 |
| Dec | $110.025 | – $3.500 |
| Feb ’19 | $112.350 | – $2.775 |
| Apr | $112.775 | – $2.550 |
| Jun | $107.100 | – $2.425 |
| Aug | $106.250 | – $1.950 |
| Corn futures | Mar. 29 | Change |
| May | $3.876 | + $0.116 |
| Jul | $3.962 | + $0.120 |
| Sep | $4.032 | + $0.128 |
| Dec | $4.114 | + $0.134 |
| Mar ’19 | $4.182 | + $0.130 |
| May | $4.222 | + $0.122 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Mar. 29 | Change |
| May | $64.94 | + $0.64 |
| Jun | $64.87 | + $0.69 |
| Jul | $64.54 | + $0.71 |
| Aug | $64.04 | + $0.67 |
| Sep | $63.48 | + $0.64 |
| Oct | $62.92 | + $0.62 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Mar. 29 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 24103.11 | + 145.22 |
| NASDAQ | 7063.44 | – 103.24 |
| S&P 500 | 2640.87 | – 2.82 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 90.07 | + 0.25 |