Cash prices for calves and feeder cattle ran counter to futures expectations, which gained less support than some expected from the previous week’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.
Steers and heifers sold steady to $3/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). That was with 264,500 more receipts (auction, direct, video/net) than the previous holiday-shortened week.
“Buyers have become more meticulous when purchasing calves having a health program and ample time weaned,” AMS analysts say. “In times past, a 30-to-45 day weaning period was sufficient, however buyers are now almost demanding a calf that is 60 days weaned with at least two rounds of recent vaccinations.”
Winter weather impacted sales and buyer attitudes in some areas.
“Blizzard conditions on Sunday and Monday, from basically I-70 to I-80 hardened up some of the fleshy calves as cold temperatures moved in directly after snow dumped across the Plains,” AMS analysts say. “Another winter storm is forecasted to move through the Northern Plains this weekend and some feeders are content to have cattle sold before the brunt of the storm rolls through.”
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.57 lower week to week on Friday ($1.77 lower at the back to $4.15 lower in spot Jan).
“Though there was softening, the futures market continued to trade above prices from two weeks ago,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The Thanksgiving holiday shut down several auction markets, while the futures market kept chugging along which impacted trends on the cash market.”
Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained largely undeveloped through USDA’s late-afternoon report Friday. There were some live sales in the western Corn Belt at $115/cwt., unevenly steady with Wednesday’s $114-$116, which was $1-$2 higher than the previous week. There was some early dressed trade in Nebraska at $183, but too few transactions to trend (prices the previous week were at $180-$185, mostly $185.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 lower week to week on Friday (17¢ lower in spot Dec to $1.77 lower).
“Cattle feeders and packers were slow to agree on a price with cattle feeders asking for prices $4 to $5 higher than the previous week, while packers were bidding $3 lower than the prior week,” Griffith explains. “It is highly unlikely the market will move much in either’s favor compared to week-ago prices, given the somewhat stagnant nature of live cattle futures following the Thanksgiving holiday. Cattle feeders should still hold some leverage over packers at this point in the game as holiday-season buying and restocking of beef counters post-holiday will keep the beef market supported. Cattle feeder leverage may be further sustained during the winter months if poor winter feeding conditions result in lighter weights.”
Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.24 lower Friday afternoon at $212.61/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $198.41.
In the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) note that since early August, Choice wholesale beef cutout prices stayed well above year-earlier levels.
“In fact, the weekly beef cutout price for the week ending Nov. 9 climbed to within June price levels despite higher year-over-year beef production for third-quarter 2018 and higher expected production in fourth-quarter 2018,” ERS analysts say.
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Nov. 30 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
289,500 (+191,800) |
49,400 (+28,900) |
43,800 (+43,800) |
382,700 (+264,500) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Nov. 29 | Change |
| $147.13 | – $1.14 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Nov. 30 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $155.06 | + $3.15 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $152.43 | + $2.04 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $151.89 | + $0.61 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Nov. 30 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $158.59 | + $2.05 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $148.33 | + $3.88 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $147.15 | + $1.87 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Nov. 30 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $156.77 | + $2.33 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $146.35 | + $1.20 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $136.53 | – $1.36 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Nov. 30 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $212.61 | – $1.24 |
| Select | $198.41 | – $0.10 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $14.20 | – $1.14 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Nov. 30 | Change |
| Jan ’19 | $145.225 | – $4.150 |
| Mar | $142.850 | – $3.075 |
| Apr | $143.625 | – $2.625 |
| May | $143.950 | – $2.550 |
| Aug | $148.175 | – $2.275 |
| Sep | $147.775 | – $2.125 |
| Oct | $147.525 | – $1.975 |
| Nov | $146.925 | – $1.775 |
| Live Cattle | Nov. 30 | Change |
| Dec | $116.925 | – $0.175 |
| Feb ’19 | $120.500 | – $0.425 |
| Apr | $122.000 | – $1.150 |
| Jun | $113.650 | – $1.775 |
| Aug | $111.575 | – $1.750 |
| Oct | $113.075 | – $1.525 |
| Dec | $115.300 | – $0.950 |
| Feb ’20 | $117.000 | – $1.000 |
| Apr | $118.700 | – $0.875 |
| Corn futures | Nov. 30 | Change |
| Dec | $3.664 | + $0.074 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.776 | + $0.072 |
| May | $3.850 | + $0.068 |
| Jul | $3.914 | + $0.060 |
| Sep | $3.940 | + $0.050 |
| Dec | $3.996 | + $0.044 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Nov. 30 | Change |
| Jan ’19 | $50.93 | + $0.51 |
| Feb | $51.09 | + $0.50 |
| Mar | $51.23 | + $0.47 |
| Apr | $51.36 | + $0.45 |
| May | $51.50 | + $0.44 |
| Jun | $51.60 | + $0.43 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Nov. 30 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 25538.46 | + 1252.51 |
| NASDAQ | 7330.54 | + 391.56 |
| S&P 500 | 2760.17 | + 127.61 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 97.20 | + 0.26 |