Cattle Current Weekly Highlights-Week ending Nov. 30, 2018

Cattle Current Weekly Highlights-Week ending Nov. 30, 2018

Cash prices for calves and feeder cattle ran counter to futures expectations, which gained less support than some expected from the previous week’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Steers and heifers sold steady to $3/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). That was with 264,500 more receipts (auction, direct, video/net) than the previous holiday-shortened week.

“Buyers have become more meticulous when purchasing calves having a health program and ample time weaned,” AMS analysts say. “In times past, a 30-to-45 day weaning period was sufficient, however buyers are now almost demanding a calf that is 60 days weaned with at least two rounds of recent vaccinations.”

Winter weather impacted sales and buyer attitudes in some areas.

“Blizzard conditions on Sunday and Monday, from basically I-70 to I-80 hardened up some of the fleshy calves as cold temperatures moved in directly after snow dumped across the Plains,” AMS analysts say. “Another winter storm is forecasted to move through the Northern Plains this weekend and some feeders are content to have cattle sold before the brunt of the storm rolls through.” 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.57 lower week to week on Friday ($1.77 lower at the back to $4.15 lower in spot Jan).

“Though there was softening, the futures market continued to trade above prices from two weeks ago,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The Thanksgiving holiday shut down several auction markets, while the futures market kept chugging along which impacted trends on the cash market.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained largely undeveloped through USDA’s late-afternoon report Friday. There were some live sales in the western Corn Belt at $115/cwt., unevenly steady with Wednesday’s $114-$116, which was $1-$2 higher than the previous week. There was some early dressed trade in Nebraska at $183, but too few transactions to trend (prices the previous week were at $180-$185, mostly $185.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 lower week to week on Friday (17¢ lower in spot Dec to $1.77 lower). 

“Cattle feeders and packers were slow to agree on a price with cattle feeders asking for prices $4 to $5 higher than the previous week, while packers were bidding $3 lower than the prior week,” Griffith explains. “It is highly unlikely the market will move much in either’s favor compared to week-ago prices, given the somewhat stagnant nature of live cattle futures following the Thanksgiving holiday. Cattle feeders should still hold some leverage over packers at this point in the game as holiday-season buying and restocking of beef counters post-holiday will keep the beef market supported. Cattle feeder leverage may be further sustained during the winter months if poor winter feeding conditions result in lighter weights.”

Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.24 lower Friday afternoon at $212.61/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $198.41.

In the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) note that since early August, Choice wholesale beef cutout prices stayed well above year-earlier levels. 

“In fact, the weekly beef cutout price for the week ending Nov. 9 climbed to within June price levels despite higher year-over-year beef production for third-quarter 2018 and higher expected production in fourth-quarter 2018,” ERS analysts say.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

Receipts

Nov. 30

Auction (head)

(Change)

Direct (head)

(Change)

Video/net (head)

(Change)

Total (head)

(Change)

 

289,500

(+191,800)

49,400

(+28,900)

43,800

(+43,800)

382,700

(+264,500)

 

CME Feeder Index

CME Feeder Index Nov. 29 Change
  $147.13   –  $1.14

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

 

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

Steers-Cash Nov. 30  Change 
600-700 lbs. $155.06 +   $3.15
700-800 lbs. $152.43 +   $2.04
800-900 lbs. $151.89 +   $0.61

South Central

Steers-Cash Nov. 30 Change
500-600 lbs. $158.59 +   $2.05
600-700 lbs. $148.33 +   $3.88
700-800 lbs. $147.15 +   $1.87

Southeast

Steers-Cash Nov. 30 Change 
400-500 lbs. $156.77 +   $2.33
500-600 lbs. $146.35 +   $1.20
600-700 lbs. $136.53 –    $1.36

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

 

Wholesale Beef Value

Boxed Beef  (p.m.) Nov. 30 ($/cwt) Change
Choice $212.61 –   $1.24
Select $198.41 –   $0.10   
Ch-Se Spread $14.20 –   $1.14

 

Futures

Feeder Cattle  Nov. 30 Change
Jan ’19 $145.225 –    $4.150
Mar $142.850 –    $3.075
Apr $143.625 –    $2.625
May $143.950 –    $2.550
Aug $148.175 –    $2.275
Sep $147.775 –    $2.125
Oct $147.525 –    $1.975
Nov $146.925 –    $1.775

 

Live Cattle   Nov. 30 Change
Dec $116.925 –    $0.175
Feb ’19 $120.500 –    $0.425
Apr $122.000 –    $1.150
Jun $113.650 –    $1.775
Aug $111.575 –    $1.750
Oct $113.075 –    $1.525
Dec $115.300 –    $0.950
Feb ’20 $117.000 –    $1.000
Apr $118.700 –    $0.875

 

Corn futures Nov. 30 Change
Dec $3.664 + $0.074
Mar ’19 $3.776 + $0.072
May $3.850 + $0.068
Jul $3.914 + $0.060
Sep $3.940 + $0.050
Dec $3.996 + $0.044

 

Oil CME-WTI Nov. 30 Change
Jan ’19 $50.93 +   $0.51
Feb $51.09 +   $0.50
Mar $51.23 +   $0.47
Apr $51.36 +   $0.45
May $51.50 +   $0.44
Jun $51.60 +   $0.43

 

Equities

Equity Indexes Nov. 30 Change
Dow Industrial Average  25538.46 +    1252.51
NASDAQ     7330.54 +      391.56
S&P 500     2760.17 +      127.61
Dollar (DXY)          97.20 +          0.26
2018-12-01T14:41:23+00:00

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