Feeder cattle traded firm to $2/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Calves sold unevenly steady with buyers in some areas discounting un-weaned and short-weaned calves.
“Feeder demand improved this week as slaughter cattle pricing managed to hold mostly steady,” say AMS analysts. “Packers continue to work in the black as slaughter rates remained aggressive and finished the week at 643,000 head, which was 7,000 behind last week, but 7,000 above of this time last year.”
“I really don’t expect much more increase in stocker prices, but additional increases are possible in the next couple of weeks. As we move through October into November, feeder prices are likely to stabilize or perhaps move lower, but the seasonal low may be quite muted,” said Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. The reason, he explained, is increased stocker demand given promising wheat pasture prospects.
Week to week on Friday, other than narrowly mixed across the front half of the board, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ higher (40¢ to $1.50 higher).
Although trade remained undeveloped in the Southern Plains, through late Friday afternoon, negotiated cash fed cattle prices in other regions was mostly steady with the previous week at $110-$112/cwt. on a live basis and at $174-$175 in the beef.
Live Cattle futures closed mostly narrowly mixed week to week on Friday, from an average of 32¢ lower toward the front of the board to an average of 24¢ higher).
“In the western Corn Belt feeding area, pen space is limited, and cattle weights continue to rise as farmer-feeders have experienced good performance over the last month,” say AMS analysts. “In addition, with the current corn values, farmer- feeders have plenty of feed supply going into the winter months, keeping demand strong for feeder cattle.”
Wholesale beef values continued seasonally lower. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower Friday afternoon at $203.25/cwt. Select was $1.70 lower at $191.74.
On the one hand, consumer beef demand remains stronger than many anticipated. On the other, competing meat supplies are increasing along with beef.
“Based on USDA numbers and calculations, per capita U.S. red meat and poultry consumption totaled 215 lbs. per person in 2017, which was 15 lbs. higher than 2014 and the highest level since 2007,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Projections are for per capita red meat and poultry consumption to be close to 220 lbs. in 2019 and 2020, which is a very similar total compared to 2002 through 2007. What is not similar is the breakdown between beef, pork, and chicken. In 2007, per capital beef, pork, and chicken consumption totaled 65 lbs., 51 lbs. and 86 lbs., respectively. Expectations moving into 2019 are beef at 58 lbs., pork at 52 lbs. and chicken at 95 lbs. These values account for production plus imports minus exports.”
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Oct. 5 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
249,600 (+64,200) |
47,600 (+600) |
39,200 (+37,300) |
336,400 (+102,100) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Oct. 4 | Change |
| $158.18 | + $1.29 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Oct. 5 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $166.29 | + $0.81 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $163.61 | + $1.91 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $159.59 | + $2.42 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Oct. 5 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $163.51 | – $2.20 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $160.84 | + $0.31 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $159.49 | + $1.32 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Oct. 5 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $160.37 | – $0.36 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $151.81 | – $0.97 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $142.96 | – $2.67 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Oct. 5 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $203.25 | – $0.63 |
| Select | $191.74 | – $1.70 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $11.51 | + $1.07 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Oct. 5 | Change |
| Oct | $157.775 | – $0.400 |
| Nov | $158.225 | + $0.175 |
| Jan ’19 | $154.375 | – $0.275 |
| Mar | $153.450 | + $0.150 |
| Apr | $153.975 | + $0.400 |
| May | $153.850 | + $0.675 |
| Aug | $156.125 | + $1.275 |
| Sep | $156.000 | + $1.500 |
| Live Cattle | Oct. 5 | Change |
| Oct | $113.800 | + $0.350 |
| Dec | $118.150 | – $0.700 |
| Feb ’19 | $122.525 | – $0.275 |
| Apr | $123.600 | – $0.300 |
| Jun | $116.650 | – $0.025 |
| Aug | $114.675 | + $0.200 |
| Oct | $115.800 | + $0.250 |
| Dec | $117.025 | + $0.250 |
| Feb ’20 | $118.125 | + $0.125 |
| Corn futures | Oct. 5 | Change |
| Dec | $3.682 | + $0.120 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.800 | + $0.120 |
| May | $3.870 | + $0.114 |
| Jul | $3.922 | + $0.110 |
| Sep | $3.954 | + $0.104 |
| Dec | $4.004 | + $0.092 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Oct. 5 | Change |
| Nov | $74.34 | + $1.09 |
| Dec | $74.26 | + $1.20 |
| Jan ’19 | $74.15 | + $1.26 |
| Feb | $74.05 | + $1.35 |
| Mar | $73.97 | + $1.46 |
| Apr | $73.88 | + $1.57 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Oct. 5 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 26447.05 | + 11.26 |
| NASDAQ | 7788.45 | – 257.90 |
| S&P 500 | 2885.57 | – 28.41 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 95.63 | + 0.46 |