Steer and heifer price trends were wider and more varied last week as more cattle made their way to town, and with some futures price queasiness that may have been tied to speculation about the late-week Cattle on Feed report (see below).
“Steers and heifers sold very uneven from $4 lower to $4/cwt. higher with sales all over the board,” said analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) on Friday.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.31 lower week to week on Friday (42¢ to $1.92 lower).
Many expected the aforementioned Cattle on Feed report to pressure prices this week. While September marketings and the on-feed number Oct. 1 were in line with pre-report estimates, September placements were at least 6% more.
Even so, calf and feeder prices remain higher than most expected just a few months ago.
“Cow and calf prices remain unseasonably strong as the market moves through the second half of October. The strength in the market has largely been due to strong demand through the entire cattle complex,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Moving forward, producers should expect slightly softer calf prices moving through November, but the risk of a major price collapse is small.”
Cash fed cattle trade ended up mostly another last-minute affair with mainly steady prices of $111/cwt. on a live basis and $175 in the beef.
Except for $1.15 lower in nearly-spent spot October and 20¢ higher in Feb, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ lower week to week.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.64 higher week to week on Friday at $199.86 per cwt. Select was $1.09 higher at $191.14.
“The chuck primal is showing glimmers of hope, and it is providing support to beef cutout prices,” Griffith says. “It is still a little early for retailers and the food service industry to begin making major purchases for the holidays, but it will not be too much longer. The one flaw in assuming the holidays will help support beef prices is the expected flood of hams that will be competing for the holiday centerpiece.”
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Oct. 20 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
305,200 (+50,700) |
36,300 (+4,000) |
18,500 (+17,600) |
360,000 (+72,300) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Oct. 19 | Change |
| $154.79 | – $0.44 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Oct. 20 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $166.02 | + $0.40 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $165.08 | + $5.12 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $155.80 | – $2.96 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Oct. 20 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $161.29 | + $0.94 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $154.20 | – $2.14 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $152.86 | – $3.53 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $150.80 | – $5.35 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Oct. 20 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $157.06 | + $0.44 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $147.39 | – $1.21 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $140.47 | – $0.04 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Oct. 20 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $199.86 | + $1.64 |
| Select | $191.14 | + $1.09 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $8.72 | + $0.55 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Oct. 20 | Change |
| Oct | $153.625 | – $0.425 |
| Nov | $153.075 | – $1.925 |
| Jan ’18 | $151.325 | – $1.725 |
| Mar | $148.450 | – $1.900 |
| Apr | $148.050 | – $1.725 |
| May | $147.100 | – $1.375 |
| Aug | $148.550 | – $0.600 |
| Sep | $148.550 | – $0.825 |
| Live Cattle | Oct. 20 | Change |
| Oct | $111.675 | – $1.150 |
| Dec | $116.600 | – $0.525 |
| Feb ’18 | $121.275 | + $0.200 |
| Apr | $121.525 | – $0.475 |
| Jun | $114.525 | – $0.825 |
| Aug | $111.850 | – $0.550 |
| Oct | $112.300 | – $0.350 |
| Dec | $113.400 | – $0.300 |
| Feb | $113.325 | – $0.325 |
| Corn futures | Oct. 20 | Change |
| Dec | $3.444 | – $0.082 |
| Mar ’18 | $3.584 | – $0.080 |
| May | $3.672 | – $0.080 |
| Jul | $3.746 | – $0.078 |
| Sep | $3.816 | – $0.076 |
| Dec | $3.912 | – $0.070 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Oct. 20 | Change |
| Nov | $51.47 | + $0.02 |
| Dec | $51.84 | + $0.11 |
| Jan 18 | $52.04 | + $0.10 |
| Feb | $52.17 | + $0.07 |
| Mar | $52.26 | + $0.05 |
| Apr | $52.30 | + $0.04 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Oct. 20 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 23328.63 | + 456.91 |
| NASDAQ | 6629.05 | + 23.25 |
| S&P 500 | 2575.21 | + 22.04 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 93.66 | + 0.61 |