Calves and feeders traded steady to $4/cwt. higher last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). That was amid lighter receipts borne by the holiday-shortened week.
“Demand for feeders was good, although buyers are showing a stronger preference for cattle with good health programs as fall temperature swings become a concern,” AMS analysts say.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.21 higher week to week on Friday.
“Coupled with last week’s increase, the front three Feeder Cattle contracts are $5.50 to $6.22 higher than two short weeks ago and auction feeder cattle have been following that trend pretty closely,” note AMS analysts.
Based on the past couple of weeks, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee says it’s likely the seasonal price decline for calves and feeders has begun.
“At the same time prices are declining, cow-calf producers will begin sending spring-born calves to town at a rapid pace, which further depresses prices. Similar to calf prices, slaughter cow prices continue to trade in a steady range, but they are sitting on the bottom of that range,” Griffith says, in his latest weekly market comments. “Alternatively, Feeder Cattle futures have displayed a little resilience the past couple of weeks and found footing to push prices higher…the futures market is telling industry participants that prices are not going to decline to the degree many thought possible a few months earlier.”
Pasture and range conditions improved slightly last week, according to the latest weekly Crop Progress report (week ending Sept. 2).
Nationally, 42% of pasture and range is in Good (36%) or Excellent (6%) condition, 2% more than a week earlier, but 5% less than a year earlier. 28% is rated as Poor (18%) or Very Poor (10%), which is 2% less than a week earlier and 7% more than last year.
Among states with 35% or more of pasture and range rated as Poor or Very Poor, week-to-week conditions improved in Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, New Mexico and Texas.
“According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, slow-moving bands of showers and thunderstorms moved over a vast area of the Midwest and dumped an abundant amount of rain, with widespread totals of 3-8 in.; in some areas, up to 15 in.,” AMS analysts explained. “The drought has improved in some areas of drought in the Midwest.”
Cash Fed Prices Hold Steady
Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were generally steady with the previous week, with live sales at mostly $107/cwt. on a live basis and at $170 in the beef. Earlier in the week, it looked possible for cattle feeders to claw back another dollar or two. Heading into next week, that seems possible, given indications that packers need to replenish inventory.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.61 higher week to week on Friday.
Wholesale beef values continued to ride the seasonal trend lower. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.13 lower Friday afternoon at $206.56/cwt. Select was $4.18 lower at $197.09.
With that said, international demand for U.S. beef continues to provide stout price support.
As noted in Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports posted another near-record month in July, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
U.S. beef exports in July climbed 12% in volume compared to the previous year at 116,575 metric tons (mt). Value for July was 16% more than the previous year at $722 million. For January through July, beef exports established a record pace in both volume (10% more) and value, which was 20% more than the same period year ago at $4.76 billion.
Beef export value in July averaged $326.18 per head of fed slaughter, up 9% from a year ago. Through July this year, per-head export value was up 16% to $318.31.
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Sept. 7 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
122,200 (-26,500) |
47,800 (-1,800) |
57,200 (-46,600) |
227,200 (-18,300) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Sept. 6 | Change |
| $151.32 | + $1.34 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 7 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $169.34 | + $9.42 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $159.56 | + $2.59 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $153.23 | + $2.38 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 7 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $163.15 | + $9.81 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $160.76 | + $16.69 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $154.08 | + $10.36 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 7 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $158.52 | – $0.23 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $148.89 | – $0.93 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $138.93 | – $3.52 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Sept. 7 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $206.56 | – $3.13 |
| Select | $197.09 | – $4.18 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $9.47 | + $1.05 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Sept. 7 | Change |
| Sep | $152.975 | + $3.525 |
| Oct | $152.950 | + $3.825 |
| Nov | $152.725 | + $3.725 |
| Jan ’19 | $148.725 | + $2.925 |
| Mar | $147.950 | + $2.800 |
| Apr | $148.700 | + $2.850 |
| May | $148.800 | + $2.550 |
| Aug | $150.175 | + $3.450 |
| Live Cattle | Sept. 7 | Change |
| Oct | $109.950 | + $1.175 |
| Dec | $114.425 | + $1.450 |
| Feb ’19 | $118.250 | + $1.375 |
| Apr | $119.425 | + $1.525 |
| Jun | $112.950 | + $1.550 |
| Aug | $111.800 | + $1.875 |
| Oct | $113.600 | + $1.825 |
| Dec | $115.150 | + $2.000 |
| Feb ’20 | $115.875 | + $1.725 |
| Corn futures | Sept. 7 | Change |
| Sep | $3.542 | + $0.032 |
| Dec | $3.670 | + $0.020 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.792 | + $0.020 |
| May | $3.870 | + $0.024 |
| Jul | $3.926 | + $0.022 |
| Sep | $3.922 | + $0.012 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Sept. 7 | Change |
| Oct | $67.75 | – $2.05 |
| Nov | $67.55 | – $1.82 |
| Dec | $67.39 | – $1.66 |
| Jan ’19 | $67.19 | – $1.60 |
| Feb | $66.96 | – $1.50 |
| Mar | $66.73 | – $1.43 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Sept. 7 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 25916.54 | – 48.28 |
| NASDAQ | 7902.54 | – 207.00 |
| S&P 500 | 2871.68 | – 29.84 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 95.42 | + 0.31 |