Cattle markets ended the week on a strong note, with Cattle futures surging higher, busting beyond the interminable sideways range of recent months. Along the way, calves and feeder cattle traded steady to higher, defying the expected seasonal trend.
Specifically, calves and yearlings sold fully steady to $5/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Given the previous week’s holiday, the trend is compared to two weeks earlier.
Though plenty of calves will be heading to market over the next two months, AMS analysts pointed to low feed prices and the promise of wheat pasture as two supportive factors behind the price trend.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.94 higher week to week on Friday ($3.97 to $6.17 higher). That’s an average of $8.15 higher in the last two weeks.
Still, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, cautions the move higher in both cash and futures prices in counter-seasonal.
“The calf and feeder cattle market have remained strong through the late summer months and the futures market is suggesting continued strength, while seasonal price trends would suggest lower prices, Griffith explains, in his weekly market comments. “Prices are strong now with most of the price risk being to the downside.”
Cash fed cattle trade remained mostly undeveloped through Friday afternoon, based on USDA reports. Live prices the previous week were mostly $107-$108/cwt. on a live basis and $170 in the beef.
Notions of ultimately higher money seemed well founded, though, given the futures rally.
Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.73 higher week to week on Friday ($1.27 higher at the back to $3.85 higher in spot Oct). That makes for an average increase of $4.34 over the past two weeks.
Wholesale beef values continued their seasonal decline. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.29 lower Friday afternoon at $204.27/cwt. Select was 62¢ lower at $196.47.
“Demand in 2018 appears to be rounding into form similar to the previous two years with continued strong demand that has supported beef and cattle prices through the entire production chain,” Griffith says. “Several factors are contributing to strong beef demand, with the most likely being increased income levels, consumers preference for beef, and exports.”
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Sept. 14 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
184,400 (+62,200) |
60,400 (+12,600) |
44,800 (-12,400) |
289,600 (+62,400) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Sept. 13 | Change |
| $152.71 | + $1.39 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 14 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $164.97 | – $4.37 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $158.05 | – $1.51 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $153.98 | + $0.75 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 14 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $162.91 | – $0.24 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $160.72 | – $0.04 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $155.07 | + $0.99 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 14 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $159.11 | + $0.59 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $150.65 | + $1.76 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $142.14 | + $3.21 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Sept. 14 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $204.27 | – $2.29 |
| Select | $196.47 | – $0.62 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $7.80 | – $1.67 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Sept. 14 | Change |
| Sep | $157.425 | + $4.450 |
| Oct | $158.875 | + $5.925 |
| Nov | $158.425 | + $5.700 |
| Jan ’19 | $154.900 | + $6.175 |
| Mar | $152.900 | + $4.950 |
| Apr | $153.000 | + $4.300 |
| May | $152.850 | + $4.050 |
| Aug | $154.150 | + $3.975 |
| Live Cattle | Sept. 14 | Change |
| Oct | $113.800 | + $3.850 |
| Dec | $118.050 | + $3.625 |
| Feb ’19 | $121.900 | + $3.650 |
| Apr | $123.150 | + $3.725 |
| Jun | $115.850 | + $2.900 |
| Aug | $114.100 | + $2.300 |
| Oct | $115.475 | + $1.875 |
| Dec | $116.500 | + $1.350 |
| Feb ’20 | $117.150 | + $1.275 |
| Corn futures | Sept. 14 | Change |
| Sep | $3.370 | – $0.172 |
| Dec | $3.516 | – $0.154 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.636 | – $0.156 |
| May | $3.722 | – $0.148 |
| Jul | $3.782 | – $0.144 |
| Sep | $3.832 | – $0.090 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Sept. 14 | Change |
| Oct | $68.99 | + $1.24 |
| Nov | $68.77 | + $1.22 |
| Dec | $68.67 | + $1.28 |
| Jan ’19 | $68.54 | + $1.35 |
| Feb | $68.38 | + $1.42 |
| Mar | $68.20 | + $1.47 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Sept. 14 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 26154.67 | + 238.13 |
| NASDAQ | 8010.04 | + 107.50 |
| S&P 500 | 2904.98 | + 33.30 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 94.97 | – 0.45 |