Calves and feeder cattle continued to trend higher, buoyed by winter grazing prospects and higher Cattle futures. Nationwide, steers traded $1-$6/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Except for $4-$6 higher in the North Central region, heifers sold steady to $3 higher.
“The feeder supply was moderate as the fall run will be upon us shortly and most auctions will go to weekly sales in the coming months,” said AMS analysts. “Long strings of yearlings are still making their way to market in the Northern Plains as the grass has been abundant.”
“Feeder cattle prices have shown strength through the summer, but seasonal pressures will likely take hold, moving prices lower in the fourth quarter,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “Prices typically decrease when the spring-born calves (about two-thirds of the annual calf crop) are brought to market in the fall. Assuming normal weather in the Great Plains, availability of winter forages for backgrounding could bolster prices in fourth-quarter 2018.”
Cattle futures meandered mostly sideways throughout the week but were able to keep much of the previous week’s sharp gains that pushed prices beyond the months-long, narrow channel.
Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 37¢ lower week to week on Friday.
Live Cattle futures closed mixed from an average of 32¢ lower to an average of 25¢ higher.
That was with plenty of uncertainty about the direction of negotiated cash prices for fed cattle. By late afternoon Friday, the only region with a reportable trend was Nebraska with live sales $1 lower than the previous week at $110.00-$110.50 and dressed trade steady at $175.
Similarly, late Friday, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association reported its members trading cattle at steady money of $111.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ higher Friday afternoon at $204.80 per cwt. Select was $1.76 lower at $194.71.
“Cattle slaughter has been clicking along this summer with larger harvests than a year ago. Packer margins have been advantageous to them this summer and they’ve been willing to pay the overtime for a six-day week production,” explained AMS analysts. “YTD fed cattle slaughter at the end of August was 2.3% larger than 2017 and 8.3% above the previous 3-year average.”
AMS analysts also point out cow slaughter through August was 11.6% more than last year and 24.2% more than the 3-year average. During the same period, heifer slaughter was 8.6% more than last year and 17% more than the 3-year average.
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
|
Receipts Sept. 21 |
Auction (head) (Change) |
Direct (head) (Change) |
Video/net (head) (Change) |
Total (head) (Change) |
|
178,500 (-5,900) |
114,500 (+54,100) |
40,000 (-4,800) |
330,300 (+40,700) |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Sept. 20 | Change |
| $156.29 | + $3.58 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 21 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $167.37 | + $2.40 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $167.09 | + $9.04 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $159.92 | + $5.94 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 21 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $166.81 | + $3.90 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $161.68 | + $0.96 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $156.61 | + $1.54 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 21 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $164.56 | + $5.45 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $151.85 | + $1.20 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $143.57 | + $1.43 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Sept. 21 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $204.80 | + $0.53 |
| Select | $194.71 | – $1.76 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $10.09 | + $2.29 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Sept. 21 | Change |
| Sep | $156.950 | – $0.475 |
| Oct | $158.075 | – $0.800 |
| Nov | $157.800 | – $0.625 |
| Jan ’19 | $154.850 | – $0.050 |
| Mar | $152.725 | – $0.175 |
| Apr | $152.750 | – $0.250 |
| May | $152.475 | – $0.375 |
| Aug | $153.975 | – $0.175 |
| Live Cattle | Sept. 21 | Change |
| Oct | $113.075 | – $0.725 |
| Dec | $118.450 | + $0.400 |
| Feb ’19 | $122.250 | + $0.350 |
| Apr | $123.425 | + $0.275 |
| Jun | $116.000 | + $0.150 |
| Aug | $114.050 | – $0.050 |
| Oct | $115.300 | – $0.175 |
| Dec | $116.750 | + $0.250 |
| Feb ’20 | $117.250 | + $0.100 |
| Corn futures | Sept. 21 | Change |
| Dec | $3.572 | + $0.056 |
| Mar ’19 | $3.692 | + $0.056 |
| May | $3.772 | + $0.050 |
| Jul | $3.832 | + $0.050 |
| Sep | $3.874 | + $0.042 |
| Dec | $3.936 | + $0.036 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Sept. 21 | Change |
| Nov | $70.78 | + $2.01 |
| Dec | $70.37 | + $1.70 |
| Jan ’19 | $70.06 | + $1.52 |
| Feb | $69.79 | + $1.41 |
| Mar | $69.58 | + $1.38 |
| Apr | $69.36 | + $1.36 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Sept. 21 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 26743.50 | + 588.83 |
| NASDAQ | 7986.96 | – 23.08 |
| S&P 500 | 2929.67 | + 24.69 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 94.21 | – 0.76 |