Markets and market players seem to be waiting for a seasonal bottom in wholesale beef values and cash fed cattle prices. By and large, cattle markets this week were a whole lot like the last one: higher calf and feeder cattle prices, scant fed cattle trade and rudderless Cattle futures.
Steers and heifers traded steady to $6/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Feeder Cattle futures gained ground, as well, closing an average of $1.78 higher week to week on Friday.
“Calf prices will likely decline a bit more to a seasonal low in October but are expected to remain higher year over year through the fourth quarter,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, in is weekly market comments. “Strong stocker demand for fall and winter grazing may limit seasonal price pressure this fall…While prices may weaken seasonally, I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s October crash in cattle prices.”
Live Cattle futures closed mostly higher, too—an average of $1.16 higher through the back five contacts, but with little conviction one way or the other.
Through late Friday afternoon, cattle feeders were passing most packer bids. There were a few trades on either side of steady during the week, but too few transactions to trend. Prices the previous week were mainly $105 per cwt on a live basis and $165-$168 in the beef.
Choice boxed beef cutout value was 46¢ lower week to week on Friday afternoon at $191.42 per cwt. Select was $4.12 lower at $185.85. The Choice-Select spread was $3.66 higher at $5.57.
Monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates released this week did provide some underlying support to cattle markets.
The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $2.80 to $3.60/bu. That’s based on estimated production of 14.2 billion bu.
The 2017-18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05/bu. on record-large production. Soybean meal prices are projected at $290 to $330 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 32.5¢ to 36.5¢/lb.
On the other side of the ledger, although beef production this year will increase, WASDE lowered the projected total by 140 million lbs.
The fourth-quarter fed steer price is projected at $107-$113/cwt., compared to $110-$113 estimated for the third quarter. The annual price is forecast at $118-$120. The projected first-quarter price for next year is $110-$120.
Friday to Friday Change*
Weekly Auction Receipts
| Receipts | Auction | Change | Direct | Change | Video/Internet | Change | Total | Change |
| Sept. 15 | 193,100 |
+66,600 |
58,100 | +17,900 | 20,800 | +9,200 | 272,000 | +93,700 |
CME Feeder Index
| CME Feeder Index | Sept. 14 | Change |
| $149.73 | + $1.49 |
*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index
Cash Stocker and Feeder
North Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 15 | Change |
| 600-700 lbs. | $161.32 | – $0.40 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $159.75 | + $2.75 |
| 800-900 lbs. | $153.31 | + $2.18 |
South Central
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 15 | Change |
| 500-600 lbs. | $161.42 | + $2.27 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $157.30 | + $1.70 |
| 700-800 lbs. | $152.75 | + $0.47 |
Southeast
| Steers-Cash | Sept. 15 | Change |
| 400-500 lbs. | $159.96 | + $5.99 |
| 500-600 lbs. | $150.60 | + $6.06 |
| 600-700 lbs. | $143.26 | + $5.06 |
(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)
Wholesale Beef Value
| Boxed Beef (p.m.) | Sept. 15 ($/cwt) | Change |
| Choice | $191.42 | – $0.46 |
| Select | $185.85 | – $4.12 |
| Ch-Se Spread | $5.57 | + $3.66 |
Futures
| Feeder Cattle | Sept. 15 | Change |
| Sep | $150.225 | + $2.350 |
| Oct | $150.650 | + $2.225 |
| Nov | $150.725 | + $2.500 |
| Jan ’18 | $147.525 | + $1.650 |
| Mar | $145.375 | + $1.375 |
| Apr | $145.525 | + $1.300 |
| May | $145.600 | + $1.300 |
| Aug | $146.000 | + $1.525 |
| Live Cattle | Sept. 15 | Change |
| Oct | $107.750 | + $0.425 |
| Dec | $112.825 | – $0.025 |
| Feb ’18 | $116.750 | + $0.125 |
| Apr | $118.700 | + $0.925 |
| Jun | $111.950 | + $0.950 |
| Aug | $109.700 | + $0.700 |
| Oct | $110.825 | + $0.800 |
| Dec | $112.200 | + $1.425 |
| Feb | $112.950 | + $2.150 |
| Corn futures | Sept. 15 | Change |
| Sep | $3.546 | + $0.104 |
| Dec | $3.672 | + $0.106 |
| Mar ’18 | $3.756 | + $0.066 |
| May | $3.822 | + $0.056 |
| Jul | $3.884 | + $0.052 |
| Sep | $3.972 | + $0.080 |
| Oil CME-WTI | Sept. 8 | Change |
| Oct | $49.89 | + $2.41 |
| Nov | $50.44 | + $2.38 |
| Dec | $50.81 | + $2.25 |
| Jan 18 | $51.09 | + $2.14 |
| Feb | $51.30 | + $2.05 |
| Mar | $51.44 | + $1.98 |
Equities
| Equity Indexes | Sept. 15 | Change |
| Dow Industrial Average | 22268.34 | + 470.55 |
| NASDAQ | 6448.47 | + 88.28 |
| S&P 500 | 2500.23 | + 38.80 |
| Dollar (DXY) | 91.84 | + 0.52 |