WLI

Cattle futures closed higher Friday but continued the back and forth sideways path.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 85¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.64 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 90¢ higher (20¢ higher toward the front to $1.62 higher near the back), except for 77¢ lower in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.77 higher (17¢ higher at the front to $4.27 higher toward the back).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to mostly inactive on light to moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2-$5 lower in Nebraska at $230/cwt. and mainly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $230. Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $360.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $237/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $235-$237 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 95¢ lower Friday afternoon at $362.27/cwt. Select was $1.98 higher at $345.38. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $9.16 lower and Select was $7.06 lower.

Harvest pressure weighed on the grain complex Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was down 63 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 28¢ to 40¢ higher through the front six contracts.  

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Although wholesale beef values are under seasonal pressure, retail beef prices remain at historically high levels.

Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee points out the Choice beef price in August was 15.7% higher year over year at $9.85 per pound and the all-fresh retail beef price was 12.6% higher at $9.18 per pound.

Conversely, in his weekly market comments, Griffith explains the retail pork price was 2.2% higher year over year in August at $5.01 per pound. The retail broiler price was 4.4% higher at $2.08 per pound.

“Relative prices are often a topic when discussing meat prices, but it is abundantly clear that pork and chicken are poor substitutes for beef as consumers continue to pull beef off the shelf despite pork and chicken being relatively cheaper than beef today compared to a year ago,” Griffith explains. “The retail price of beef is not expected to continue climbing at such a rapid pace, but they will likely be sustained for several more months.”

Cattle futures stepped lower Thursday, bowing to softer cash fed cattle prices and the continued seasonal decline in wholesale beef values. Some also suggested conditional FDA approval of an injectable from Zoetis for the prevention and control of New World screwworm might have been part of the pressure, speculating it might mean a quicker reopening of the Mexican border — emphasis on speculation.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.65 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were a few FOB live trades at $230/cwt. in Nebraska and at $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt. There were also a few dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $360.  

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2-$5 lower at $230/cwt. in Nebraska and mainly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $230. Dressed delivered prices are $5 lower in Nebraska at $360.

Last week, FOB live prices were $237/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.25 lower Thursday afternoon at $363.22/cwt. Select was $3.49 lower at $343.40.

Grain and Soybean futures rose Thursday with apparent short covering, as well as optimism tied to government chatter about trade talks with China.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday with investors apparently betting on a brief government shutdown.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 78 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 88 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 75¢ to $1.05 lower.  

Cattle futures were firm in the deferred contracts Wednesday but weak up front with pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 60¢ higher, except for an average of 38¢ lower in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of $1.02 lower in the front five contracts to an average of $1.16 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to light to moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2-$5 lower at $230/cwt. in Nebraska, where dressed delivered prices are $5 lower at $360.

Last week, FOB live prices were $237/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.56 lower Wednesday afternoon at $368.47/cwt. Select was 36¢ lower at $346.89.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 12¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Wednesday despite the government shutdown.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 95 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 24¢ to 38¢ lower.  

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Although losing seasonal ground, pasture and range conditions continue to be more positive year over year, according to the most recent USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending Sept 28: 32% rated as Good (25%) or Excellent (7%), which was 6% more than the same time a year earlier. On the other side of the scale, 35% was rated as Poor (23%) or Very Poor (12%), compared to 43% a year earlier.

Winter wheat planting was running a touch behind with 34% in the ground, compared to 37% a year earlier and 36% for the five-year average. 13% was emerged, which was the same as last year but 1% more than the average.

As for row crops, 71% of the corn crop was mature, which was 2% less than last year and 3% less than average. 18% was harvested, which was 2% less than a year earlier and 1% less than the average. 66% was rated as Good (49%) or Excellent (17%), which was 2% more than the previous year. 10% was rated as Poor (7%) or Very Poor (3%), down 2% from last year.

Similarly, 79% of soybeans were dropping leaves, which was on par with last year but 2% less than the average. 19% were harvested, which was 5% less than the same time last year and 1% less than the average. 62% was rated as Good (49%) or Excellent (13%), compared to 64% a year earlier. 11% was in Poor (8%) or Very Poor (3%) condition, which was the same as last year.

Cattle futures, especially Feeder Cattle bounced higher Tuesday, supported by likely month-end and quarter-end position squaring and the quarterly Grain Stocks report (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.38 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.08 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $237/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas, $232-$235 in Nebraska and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 35¢ higher Monday afternoon at $371.03/cwt. Select was $1.64 lower at $347.25.

Corn futures wilted beneath harvest pressure and estimates of more than expected quarterly stocks.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were mostly 8¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices crawled higher Tuesday despite growing prospects of a government shutdown.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 88 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 68 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 95¢ to $1.02 lower.  

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USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report for stocks as of Sept. 1 helped jolt futures lower Tuesday.

Old crop corn stocks in all positions of 1.53 billion bushels were 13% less year over year, but significantly more than the average trade guess.

Of the total corn stocks, 643 million bushels were stored on farms, down 18% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 888 million bushels, were down 10% from a year ago.

Turning to soybeans, old crop stored in all positions totaled 316 million bushels, down 8% from September a year earlier. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 91.5 million bushels, which was 18% less year over year. Off-farm stocks of 225 million bushels were 3% less.  

Finally, all wheat stored in all positions on Sept. 1 totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up 6% from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 692 million bushels, up 4% from last September. Off-farm stocks of 1.43 billion bushels were 7% more.

Cattle futures wandered on both sides of steady on Monday, favoring a slightly softer tone.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 35¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 78¢ lower across a wide range.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $237/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $235-$237 in Kansas, $232-$235 in Nebraska and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $4.86 lower at $232.65/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.91 lower at $364.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Monday afternoon at $370.68/cwt. Select was $3.55 lower at $348.89.

Corn and Soybean futures trended lower on Monday with harvest pressure.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were fractionally lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 107 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.03 to $2.53 lowerthrough the front six contracts, pressured by news that OPEC+ intends to increase production..

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Cash fed cattle prices are experiencing expected seasonal weakness as wholesale beef values decline and consumers move beyond the last official grilling day of the summer. Calf prices are turning more variable, too, as a wider variety of spring-born calves begin coming to town. But prices remain historically high for all classes, in response to dwindling cattle numbers and continued robust consumer beef demand. The fewest beef cows in decades and sluggish herd expansion mean the same bullish supply fundamentals should persist for at least a couple more years.

USDA’s National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary provides current price perspective. For the week ending Sept. 27, steers weighing 600-700 lbs. sold for an average price of $415.52/cwt. in the north-central region, which was $149.29 more year over year. For same-weight steers, the average was $391.76 in the south-central region and $359.81 in the Southeast, which was $129.78 and $120.77 more year over year, respectively.

More broadly, Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (K-State) offered price forecasts from the Livestock Marketing Information Center during the recent K-State Beef Stocker Conference. Projected average prices for Southern Plains steer calves weighing 500-600 lbs. are $395-$405/cwt. this year, $419-$431 next year and $427-442 in 2027. For feeder steers weighing 700-800 lbs. in the same region, prices are forecast to average $323-$328 this year, $344-356 next year and $352-$367 in 2027. That’s with the annual five-area direct weighted average fed steer price projected at $225-$230 this year, $239-$251 next year and $242-257 in 2027.

So, prices should continue to increase, but at a slower pace than the last couple of years.