WLI

Cattle futures sank lower Friday with pressure including the bounce higher in grain futures, more cases of Bovine Influenza A Virus in dairy cattle and struggling outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.39 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.27 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.25 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $182/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182, $3 lower in Nebraska at $184 and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185.

Dressed delivered prices were $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $293 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $293.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.20 higher Friday afternoon at $300.57/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $295.54/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 603,000 head was 10,000 head fewer than the previous week and 8,000 head fewer than the same week a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 8.9 million head was 482,000 head fewer (-5.1%) year over year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 7.5 billion pounds was 251.6 million pounds less (-3.3%).

Grain and Soybean futures rallied Friday as funds appeared to exit positions amid risk-off sentiment in equity markets.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 14¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then 6¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Friday with pressure from inflation concerns and wobbly corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 475 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 267 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  59¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Counter-seasonally heavier carcass weights are moderating less cattle slaughter, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

LMIC analysts note in the latest Livestock Monitor that dressed steer and heifer carcass weights have risen the past eight weeks.

“Normally fed cattle dressed weights fall, reliably, from January to June and then move up July to November. Some years the seasonal pattern is less pronounced than others, but rarely is the opposite trend seen in cattle dressed weights,” LMCI analysts explain. “At least some of the reason dressed weights are heavier is that marketings have been lower, and the number of cattle on feed over 150 days is higher. Daily marketings in March are estimated to be in the low 80,000s head per day, a small number given that cattle on feed is above a year ago. Cattle on feed more than 150 days reached 2.7 million head in February, resembling numbers seen during the pandemic and post-pandemic supply chain problems.”

Through the first quarter, LMIC analysts say cattle harvest was down an estimated 5%, but average cattle carcass weights were up 2%, meaning that beef production was down 3.5%.

Cattle futures were higher into the close and before settlement on Thursday, despite steady to lower early cash fed cattle prices and recently weaker wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 95¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Compared to last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185 where dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at mostly $293.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184 in the Texas Panhandle and $187 in Nebraska where dressed delivered prices were $296-$297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ higher at $298.37/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $295.15.

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures were trending lower at the close Thursday with pressure from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Mar ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 11¢ lower through May ‘25. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through next March.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday with most of the support coming from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 271 points.

Late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were little changed but lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service increased projected five-area direct average fed steer prices for the remainder of this year in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, based on recent data and expected strength in demand, forecast prices increased $2 in the second quarter to $185/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $184 and $4 in the fourth quarter to $190. The annual average price increased $2 to $185.

That was with beef production estimated 130 million pounds more at 26.5 billion pounds. Forecast production was raised on heavier weights and increased slaughter.

Cattle futures lost more ground Wednesday with pressures including heavy carcass weights and announced import restrictions by some states on cattle from states with confirmed cases of Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV).

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.57 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.72 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas and $187 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $296-$297 in Nebraska and $297 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.86 lower at $298.23/cwt. Select was $3.88 lower at $296.02.

Turning to row crops, heading toward Wednesday’s close, Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 17¢ higher through Dec ’25 which helped drag Corn futures mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher through near Dec.

However, Soybean futures were 5¢ to 9¢ lower ahead of Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by another reading of sticky inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index increased 3.5% over the last 12 months, which was more than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 422 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 136 points.

Late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were little changed but higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained some Tuesday with a likely technical bounce.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher, while Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.94 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas and $187 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $296-$297 in Nebraska and $297 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $302.09/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $299.90.

Turning to row crops, positive weather outlooks in the U.S. and South America helped pressure grains Tuesday. Heading toward the close,

Corn futures were down 4¢ to 6¢ through Dec. ’25, Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 13¢ lower through Dec ’25 and Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ lower through the front of the Board.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 52 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 61¢ to $1.15 lower through the front six contracts.

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Funds exiting long positions pulled the rug from under Cattle futures when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza was confirmed in dairy cattle and linked to a human case soon after. However, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University says some price adjustment should already have been expected.

Incidentally, because there is a difference, the American Association of Bovine Practitioners now refers to the virus as Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV).

“Beef packer margins are as poor as they have been for over a year. The first quarter typically has the poorest margins and that is where things are,” Koontz explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “Pressure to lower fed cattle prices remains to be expected. Cash cattle feeding margins are also relatively even compared to the strength observed in all of 2023. Under such conditions pressure on feeder cattle prices are anticipated. Given these underlying conditions, a rapid return to observed high price levels for fed cattle and calves is unlikely.”

Further, Koontz noted the inventory of cattle on feed for more than 150 days, as calculated from USDA reports, is among the most since the pandemic.

“Therefore, packer leverage in bargaining will remain strong into the second quarter, and the impetus for other heavy placements will be mitigated,” Koontz says. “It is rather possible that the spring market rally has occurred and is over.”

Higher wholesale beef values helped Live Cattle futures firm on Monday.

Live Cattle closed an average of 67¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ lower, except for $1.45 higher in spot Apr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $187 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.50 lower at $185.73. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.62 lower at $296.87.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.90 higher Monday afternoon at $302.07/cwt. Select was $5.57 higher at $300.27/cwt.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 34¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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As reported in the last issue of Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports continued to firm in February, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Although volume was down, value for the month was 10% higher at 830.4 million.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University lent perspective in his weekly market comments Monday. He explained beef exports continue to face headwinds as beef production decreases and beef prices increase in the U.S. market.

“A generally strong U.S. dollar adds additional headwinds, making U.S. beef imports more expensive to international customers,” Peel says. “At the same time, decreasing domestic beef supplies in the U.S., coupled with higher prices, attracts additional beef imports, with the strong dollar adding additional incentive for beef imports.” He explains beef imported to the U.S. typically is lean processing beef to supplement decreasing supplies of non-fed beef in the U.S.

Peel notes decreasing domestic lean beef supplies and strong ground beef prices are pushing both to record price levels.

Moreover, while fed steer and heifer beef production is declining, Peel notes the current large percentage of yield grade 4 and 5 cattle in feedlots means that the supply of fatty (50% lean) trimmings is high relative to lean beef supplies.