WLI

Cattle futures plumbed lower Friday with continued concerns about Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in dairy cattle.

Live Cattle closed an average of $3.08 lower ($2.70 to $3.80 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.96 lower ($3.92 to $5.85 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $187 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ higher Friday afternoon at $297.17/cwt. Select was $1.35 lower at $294.70/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 23,000 more than the previous week and 4,000 head more than the same week a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 8.3 million head was 473,000 fewer (-5.4%) year over year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 7.0 billion pounds was 264.6 million pounds less (-3.7%).

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher through Nov ’24 and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Friday on the bullish employment situation.

Total non-farm employment grew by 303,000 in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was significantly more than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls was 12¢ higher in March at $34.69.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 199 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  16¢ to 32¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continue to gain firmer footing, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports reached 103,883 metric tons (mt) in February, down 1% from a year ago, but export value increased 10% to $830.4 million. January-February exports were down 1% to 203,647 mt, while export value increased 9% to $1.59 billion.

February beef export value equated to $412.79 per head of fed slaughter, up 5% from a year ago. The January-February average was $385.78 per head, which was 7% higher.

“Tight beef supplies are definitely a challenge for exporters, and that situation isn’t going to change anytime soon,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “But on a positive note, we are seeing more opportunities for underutilized beef cuts, including the round, shoulder clod and variety meat, in the global marketplace. Demand is strong throughout the Western Hemisphere and the foodservice and hospitality sectors are finally gaining some momentum in key Asian markets such as Korea, where the post-COVID recovery has been slower than anticipated.”

February beef exports to the Caribbean were the largest on record, while demand from Mexico and Central and South America continued to trend higher.

In the other side of the fence, February pork exports increased 14% from a year ago to 250,930 mt, while value jumped 15% to $685.1 million. Through the first two months of 2024, exports increased 10% in both volume (502,354 mt) and value ($1.37 billion).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices are $2-$3 lower at $187/cwt. Dressed delivered prices are $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

Trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices last week were $186 in the Texas Panhandle and $185-$186 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.15 lower at $297.15/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $296.05/cwt.

Cattle futures edged higher Thursday, but were down sharply lower at mid-session on Friday as concerns about Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza continue to weigh.

Live Cattle closed an average of 89¢ higher (25¢ to $1.25 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher (75¢ to $2.02 higher).

Grain futures closed higher with apparent short covering.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25 .and then fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher, except for 3¢ lower in spot May.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Jan ’25  and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices sank Thursday, ahead of Friday’s national employment summary, and amid surging oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 530 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 64 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 228 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.05 to $1.19 higher through the front six contracts.

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Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending Mar. 28 of 18,700 metric tons for 2024 were 48% more than the previous week and 53% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Canada, Taiwan and Mexico.

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure including softer early cash fed cattle prices, weakening wholesale beef values and continued uncertainty tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans.

Live Cattle closed an average of 74¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.05.

Through Wednesday afternoon, negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the North, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service

There were some early live delivered trades in Nebraska at $189/cwt. FOB live sales there last week were $189-$190). There were also some early FOB live sales the western Corn Belt at $187, which was $1-$3 lower. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 lower at $296. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $299-$300 in a very light test.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $185-$186 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.86 lower Wednesday afternoon at $301.30/cwt. Select was $2.07 lower at $296.92/cwt.

Grains and Soybean futures closed higher Wednesday with apparent short covering.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 17¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  28¢ to 62¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural producer sentiment increased in March, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index increased 3 points month-to-month to 114. Although the Index of Current Conditions declined 2 points to 101, the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 120.

“Producers’ expectations for interest rate changes have shifted, which could help explain why producers look for financial conditions to improve,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

This month, 48% of respondents said they expect a decline in the U.S. prime interest rate over the next year, which was 13% more than in December. High input costs continue to be producers primary concern.

The March barometer also revealed that many producers are concerned about potential government policy changes affecting their operations following this year’s elections. For instance, 43% of respondents anticipate more restrictive regulations for agriculture; 39% expect taxes impacting agriculture to rise.

The March barometer survey was conducted from March 11-15.

Cattle futures firmed and clawed back a little ground without much conviction on Tuesday after being hammered by panic selling in the previous session, tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans.

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.02 higher (50¢ to $1.70 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.43 higher ($1.35 to $3.07 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$186 in Kansas, $189-$190 in Nebraska and $188-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $299-$302 in Nebraska and $299-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 lower Tuesday afternoon at $304.16/cwt. Select was $2.80 lower at $298.99/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 9¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 13¢ lower through May ’25. and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 11¢ lower through Jan ’25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid rising treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 396 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 156 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.03 to $1.44 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef and pork exports contribute significant value to the value of domestic corn and soybeans, according to an independent study conducted by The Juday Group and released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Nationally, U.S. pork and beef exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 14.6% per bushel to the value of corn and 13.9% per bushel to soybeans in 2023, according to the study.

More specifically, beef and pork exports contributed an estimated 87¢ of bushel value at an average price of $5.95 per bushel. They accounted for 512.7 million bushels of U.S. corn usage, which equated to a market value of $3.05 billion (at an average 2023 corn price of $5.95 per bushel).

Pork exports accounted for 96.8 million bushels of U.S. soybean usage, which equated to a market value of $1.36 billion (at an average price of $14.07 per bushel). They contributed an estimated $1.95 per bushel, at an average price of $14.07 per bushel.

The quality of U.S. corn and soybeans as feed inputs is a key differentiator for U.S. red meat in international markets, says USMEF Chair Randy Spronk, a pork and grain producer from Edgerton, Minn. “Our production practices and the quality of our feed inputs is an important part of the story that USMEF promotes to international customers. How we raise our soybeans, how we raise our corn, how we process our feed and the efficiencies we strive for ‒ those are sustainable practices that help differentiate us from other beef and pork exporters.”

Cattle futures, already weakened by last week’s lower cash fed cattle trade and Choice wholesale beef values, crumbled Monday with another round of panic selling tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans (see below).

Live Cattle closed an average of $4.91 lower (45¢ lower at the back to $6.10 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.91 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Services.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$186, steady to $1lower in Nebraska at $189-$190 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn belt at $188-190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 lower in Nebraska at 299-$302 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $299-300.

The five-area weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.33 lower at $188.23/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.64 lower at $299.49.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ lower Monday afternoon at $305.74/cwt. Select was $1.64 lower at $301.79/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Monday amid rising treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower. The S&P 5 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 13¢ to 54¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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On Monday, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) reported the first human case of novel avian influenza A(H5N1) in Texas.

“The patient became ill following contact with dairy cows presumed to be infected with avian influenza. The patient’s primary symptom was conjunctivitis,” according to the DSHS Health Alert. “This is the second case of avian influenza A(H5N1) identified in a person in the United States and is believed to be associated with the recent detections of avian influenza A(H5N1) in dairy cows announced by the Texas Animal Health Commission. DSHS along with local, regional, state, and federal partners, is investigating this ongoing situation. Avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses have only rarely been transmitted from person to person. As such, the risk to the general public is believed to be low; however, people with close contact with affected animals suspected of having avian influenza A(H5N1) have a higher risk of infection.”

Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide some market perspective regarding last week’s confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle, before yesterday’s announced link to a human infection.

“Public perception is of primary concern at the moment,” LMIC analysts say in the latest Livestock Monitor. “So far, no trading partners have backed away from U.S. dairy products as a whole but consumers may have a different view. This story has already been picked up by major U.S. media outlets and circulated. Public perception will also hinge on how the disease spreads within dairy herds and if virus mutations reach a level of public concern. At the moment it does not appear to be transferable from cow to cow. However, it is entering migratory bird season, which increases the chances of wild birds interacting with domesticated animals. Points of transmission can be any shared spaces. Think: water tanks, feed bunks, rafters, etc.”

As for production implications, LMIC analysts explain losses are expected to be significant and short lived for infected cattle.

“There are implications for both down (public perception) and upside (lower production) price risk, but it is still early in the situation to make a definitive call,” say LMIC analysts.