WLI

Cattle futures gained Thursday, recovering more of the early-week losses as traders positioned for the end of the week and quarter, and ahead of a long weekend.

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.49 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 89¢ higher, except for 30¢ lower in expiring Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 lower at $186/cwt.

A day earlier FOB live prices were $3 lower in Kansas at $185.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190 in Nebraska and $190-$191 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $308.36/cwt. Select was $2.74 higher at $301.17/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 12,700 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were 15% more than the previous week and 4% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report for the week ending Mar. 21. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, China, Mexico and Taiwan.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures climbed higher, up mostly 10¢ to 15¢, fueled by USDA’s Prospective Plantings report (see below).

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mixed: 1¢ lower to 3¢ higher through Jan ’25 and then mostly 8¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday as investors wrapped up the trading week and quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 5 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.17 to $1.89 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Prospective Plantings report surprised some with estimated corn acres this year projected at 90 million acres, about 2 million acres less than expectations. That would be 4.6 million acres less than last year (-4.9%).

Corn stocks Mar. 1 were estimated to be 8.4 billion bu., which was 950.1 million bushels more than a year earlier (+12.9%), according to the latest Grain Stocks report. Of the total stocks, 5.1 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 24% from a year earlier. Projected off-farm stocks of 3.3 billion bushels were down 1% from a year ago.

Markets likely viewed the soybean outlook as neutral.

Soybean acres were projected at 86.5 million acres, which would be 2.9 million acres more than last year (+3.5%).

Soybean stocks were estimated at 1.8 billion bushels, up 158.4 million bushels (+9.4%) from a year earlier. Soybean stocks stored on farms were estimated at 933 million bushels, up 24% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks of 912 million bushels were 3% less than last March.

All wheat acres were projected at 47.5 million acres, which was 2.1 million acres less than last year (-4.2%) for comparable states. The projected 2024 winter wheat planted area of 34.1 million acres was 7% less than last year and 1% less than the previous estimate for comparable states.

Wheat stocks were estimated at 1.1 billion bushels, which was 146.2 million bushels more than a year earlier (+15.5%). On-farm stocks were estimated at 272 million bushels, up 20% from last March. Off-farm stocks of 816 million bushels were 14% more than a year ago.

All hay acres were projected to be 1.3 million acres less (-2.4%) than last year.

Cattle futures firmed Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 91¢ higher (32¢ to $1.42 higher).

Live Cattle closed an average of 27¢ higher, except for 15¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade on Wednesday ranged from a standstill to slow on light demand in Kansas where FOB live prices were $3 lower at $185/cwt. in a light test, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$191 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.51 lower Wednesday afternoon at $308.58/cwt. Select was $1.83 lower at $298.43/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures mostly meandered lower as traders geared up for Thursday’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks report from USDA.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday with little economic news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 377 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 83 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 16¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, cattle prices are expected to strengthen this year and next, according to the recently released annual agricultural market baseline outlook from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI). The outlook provides projections through 2033.

More specifically, FAPRI projects the five-area direct fed steer price at $178.57/cwt. this year, $184.59 next year and peaking in 2026 at $185.38. Prices then decline to $154.76 in 2033.

As for calves, basis 600-650-pound steers selling at Oklahoma City, prices are projected at $270.70/cwt. this year, $284.74 next year and peaking in 2026 at $286.19. Prices then decline to $224.71 in 2033.

Net return per beef cows are projected to be $387.30 this year, $469.07 next year and $479.92 in 2026 and $426.31 in 2027. From there, returns decline to $218.71 in 2031 and the declining further to $182.06 in 2033.

Cattle futures sank Tuesday amid uncertainty spun by negative and potentially negative news.

Closest to home, Monday’s announced confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle from herds in Kansas and Texas likely drew the attention of funds and algorithms. The infections appear to be tied to wild birds. There is no threat to the milk or food supply, according to USDA.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) issued a statement also emphasizing HPAI has not been detected in beef cattle. However, NCBA encourages producers to implement enhanced biosecurity measures on their farms and ranches to help protect their herds.”

For broader context, according to NCBA, “Detections of avian influenza in birds are common in the United States. While it is uncommon for HPAI to affect mammals, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has been tracking some limited detections of HPAI in mammalian wildlife for many years in the United States.”

So, the fundamental consequences of the HPAI finding depend on consumers.

Live Cattle closed an average of $3.22 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.48 lower ($1.72 to $5.37 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $311.09/cwt. Select was $1.70 lower  at $300.26/cwt.

There was no AMS cash fed cattle report available at press time.

Last week, FOB live prices were $188/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190-$191 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $302.

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Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Tuesday with pressure from apparent farmer selling, month-end and quarter-end positioning as well as positioning ahead of Thursday’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks report from USDA.

There was also likely some knee-jerk selling related to the closure of Baltimore Harbor after a cargo ship struck and caused the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge. Maryland Governor, Wes Moore, declared a state of emergency and vessel traffic into and out of the harbor was suspended indefinitely. It’s not that Baltimore Harbor is a huge point of arrival or departure for agricultural commodities. The concern is how the closure of a busy port for other goods could impact other supply chains which could ultimately impact agricultural commodities.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 12¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 68 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 25¢ to 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed lower Monday, with pressure including Friday’s bearish monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.09 lower (67¢ to $1.52 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 lower (50¢ to $2.37 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191 (a few up to $191.50). Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.09 higher at $189.56/cwt. The dressed delivered steer price was $4.07 higher at $302.13.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 17¢ higher Monday afternoon at $310.89/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $301.96/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ higher through Jly ’25, and then mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher, supported by edible oils.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Monday, with investors appearing to take a breath after last week’s strong gains, while looking toward month-end and quarter-end positioning this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.02 to $1.32 higher through the front six contracts.

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More days on feed, increased feeder cattle imports from Mexico and pulling cattle forward are among the factors underpinning persistently high feedlot inventories despite declining cattle numbers overall, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“One of the primary reasons that feedlot inventories have remained as high thus far is due to the continued placement and feeding of heifers,” Peel says. “At some point, increased heifer retention will lead to more pronounced decreases in feedlot inventories, perhaps to levels similar to the 2014 low. It’s not clear when that will happen as herd rebuilding appears to be progressing slowly and drought continues to be a threat to the size of the beef cow herd.”

As mentioned in yesterday’s Cattle Current, cattle on feed March 1 (feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity) was 1.3% more than a year earlier at 11.8 million head, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report. Placements in February were 9.7% more than the previous year and the most for the month since the data series began in 1996.

“Average monthly feedlot inventories continued to climb until the September 2022 peak of 11.8 million head,” Peel explains. “The 12-month moving average of monthly feedlot inventories declined from October 2022 through October 2023 before increasing to the current level of 11.6 million head in March 2024, down 1.8% from the peak.”

Cattle futures closed lower Friday, with likely positioning ahead of what turned out to be a bearish monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.63 lower (87¢ to $2.00 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.24 lower (92¢ to $4.30 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $188/cwt., $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $190 (a few up to $191) and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn belt at $190-$191 (a few up to $191.50). Dressed delivered prices were $2-$7 higher in Nebraska at $302 and $4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.01 lower Friday afternoon at $310.72/cwt. Select was $2.26 lower at $301.47/cwt. Week to week, Choice was $1.18 lower and Select was 93¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 598,000 head was 3,000 head less than the previous week but 30,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 7.1 million head was 410,000 head fewer (-5.4%) than the same time a year earlier. Estimated beef production of 6.0 billion pounds was 250.7 million pounds less (-4.0%).

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 20¢ lower, with likely profit taking.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mainly lower Friday with likely profit taking from the week’s strong gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 26 points.

Week to week, the Dow gained 1,761 points. The S&P 500 was up 177 points and the tech-heavy NASDAQ was up 455 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 44¢ to 54¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Traders will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bearish with more feedlot placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.9 million head in February which was 9.7% more (+160,000 head) year over year and 3.4% more than expectations ahead of the report. Placements were the highest for the month since the series began in 1996.

In terms of placement weights, 36% weighed 699 lbs. or less, 53% weighed 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighed 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in February of 1.8 million head were 3.4% more (+59,000 head), which was in line with expectations.

Cattle on feed March 1 of 11.8 million head were 1.3% more (+153,000 head) than a year earlier, also in line with pre-report expectations.