WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices are $2-$3 lower at $187/cwt. Dressed delivered prices are $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

Trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices last week were $186 in the Texas Panhandle and $185-$186 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.15 lower at $297.15/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $296.05/cwt.

Cattle futures edged higher Thursday, but were down sharply lower at mid-session on Friday as concerns about Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza continue to weigh.

Live Cattle closed an average of 89¢ higher (25¢ to $1.25 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher (75¢ to $2.02 higher).

Grain futures closed higher with apparent short covering.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25 .and then fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher, except for 3¢ lower in spot May.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 3¢ lower through Jan ’25  and then fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices sank Thursday, ahead of Friday’s national employment summary, and amid surging oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 530 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 64 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 228 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.05 to $1.19 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending Mar. 28 of 18,700 metric tons for 2024 were 48% more than the previous week and 53% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Canada, Taiwan and Mexico.

Cattle futures closed lower Wednesday with pressure including softer early cash fed cattle prices, weakening wholesale beef values and continued uncertainty tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans.

Live Cattle closed an average of 74¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.05.

Through Wednesday afternoon, negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the North, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service

There were some early live delivered trades in Nebraska at $189/cwt. FOB live sales there last week were $189-$190). There were also some early FOB live sales the western Corn Belt at $187, which was $1-$3 lower. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $4-$6 lower at $296. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $299-$300 in a very light test.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $185-$186 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.86 lower Wednesday afternoon at $301.30/cwt. Select was $2.07 lower at $296.92/cwt.

Grains and Soybean futures closed higher Wednesday with apparent short covering.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 17¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  28¢ to 62¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. agricultural producer sentiment increased in March, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index increased 3 points month-to-month to 114. Although the Index of Current Conditions declined 2 points to 101, the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 120.

“Producers’ expectations for interest rate changes have shifted, which could help explain why producers look for financial conditions to improve,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

This month, 48% of respondents said they expect a decline in the U.S. prime interest rate over the next year, which was 13% more than in December. High input costs continue to be producers primary concern.

The March barometer also revealed that many producers are concerned about potential government policy changes affecting their operations following this year’s elections. For instance, 43% of respondents anticipate more restrictive regulations for agriculture; 39% expect taxes impacting agriculture to rise.

The March barometer survey was conducted from March 11-15.

Cattle futures firmed and clawed back a little ground without much conviction on Tuesday after being hammered by panic selling in the previous session, tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans.

Live Cattle closed an average of $1.02 higher (50¢ to $1.70 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.43 higher ($1.35 to $3.07 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $185-$186 in Kansas, $189-$190 in Nebraska and $188-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $299-$302 in Nebraska and $299-$300 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.58 lower Tuesday afternoon at $304.16/cwt. Select was $2.80 lower at $298.99/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 9¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 13¢ lower through May ’25. and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 11¢ lower through Jan ’25.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday amid rising treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 396 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 156 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.03 to $1.44 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

U.S. beef and pork exports contribute significant value to the value of domestic corn and soybeans, according to an independent study conducted by The Juday Group and released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Nationally, U.S. pork and beef exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 14.6% per bushel to the value of corn and 13.9% per bushel to soybeans in 2023, according to the study.

More specifically, beef and pork exports contributed an estimated 87¢ of bushel value at an average price of $5.95 per bushel. They accounted for 512.7 million bushels of U.S. corn usage, which equated to a market value of $3.05 billion (at an average 2023 corn price of $5.95 per bushel).

Pork exports accounted for 96.8 million bushels of U.S. soybean usage, which equated to a market value of $1.36 billion (at an average price of $14.07 per bushel). They contributed an estimated $1.95 per bushel, at an average price of $14.07 per bushel.

The quality of U.S. corn and soybeans as feed inputs is a key differentiator for U.S. red meat in international markets, says USMEF Chair Randy Spronk, a pork and grain producer from Edgerton, Minn. “Our production practices and the quality of our feed inputs is an important part of the story that USMEF promotes to international customers. How we raise our soybeans, how we raise our corn, how we process our feed and the efficiencies we strive for ‒ those are sustainable practices that help differentiate us from other beef and pork exporters.”

Cattle futures, already weakened by last week’s lower cash fed cattle trade and Choice wholesale beef values, crumbled Monday with another round of panic selling tied to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows linked to a rare case in humans (see below).

Live Cattle closed an average of $4.91 lower (45¢ lower at the back to $6.10 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.91 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Services.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $186/cwt., $2-$3 lower in Kansas at $185-$186, steady to $1lower in Nebraska at $189-$190 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn belt at $188-190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 lower in Nebraska at 299-$302 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $299-300.

The five-area weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.33 lower at $188.23/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.64 lower at $299.49.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ lower Monday afternoon at $305.74/cwt. Select was $1.64 lower at $301.79/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Monday amid rising treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower. The S&P 5 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 17 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 13¢ to 54¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

On Monday, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) reported the first human case of novel avian influenza A(H5N1) in Texas.

“The patient became ill following contact with dairy cows presumed to be infected with avian influenza. The patient’s primary symptom was conjunctivitis,” according to the DSHS Health Alert. “This is the second case of avian influenza A(H5N1) identified in a person in the United States and is believed to be associated with the recent detections of avian influenza A(H5N1) in dairy cows announced by the Texas Animal Health Commission. DSHS along with local, regional, state, and federal partners, is investigating this ongoing situation. Avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses have only rarely been transmitted from person to person. As such, the risk to the general public is believed to be low; however, people with close contact with affected animals suspected of having avian influenza A(H5N1) have a higher risk of infection.”

Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide some market perspective regarding last week’s confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle, before yesterday’s announced link to a human infection.

“Public perception is of primary concern at the moment,” LMIC analysts say in the latest Livestock Monitor. “So far, no trading partners have backed away from U.S. dairy products as a whole but consumers may have a different view. This story has already been picked up by major U.S. media outlets and circulated. Public perception will also hinge on how the disease spreads within dairy herds and if virus mutations reach a level of public concern. At the moment it does not appear to be transferable from cow to cow. However, it is entering migratory bird season, which increases the chances of wild birds interacting with domesticated animals. Points of transmission can be any shared spaces. Think: water tanks, feed bunks, rafters, etc.”

As for production implications, LMIC analysts explain losses are expected to be significant and short lived for infected cattle.

“There are implications for both down (public perception) and upside (lower production) price risk, but it is still early in the situation to make a definitive call,” say LMIC analysts.

Futures and equity markets were closed on Friday, in observance of Good Friday.

Although Cattle futures firmed at the end of weekly trade, they ended sharply lower week to week, due in part to the previous Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. As mentioned in Cattle Current, feedlot placements in February were 9.7% more year over year and 3.4% more than expected.

Futures also suffered from panic selling earlier in the week that stemmed from confirmation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in dairy cows (see below).

Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.22 lower ($3.37 to $5.07 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices softened, too. For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $189-$190 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $188-$190. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $3 lower in Nebraska at $299-$302. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $302.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.00 lower week to week on Friday at $306.72/cwt. Select was $1.96 higher at $303.43. Friday’s Choice-Select spread of $3.29 was the lowest in about two years.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 586,000 head was 12,000 head fewer than the previous week and 59,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 7.7 million head was 473,000 head fewer (-5.8%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 6.5 billion pounds was 284.5 million pounds less (-4.2%).

******************************

Calves and feeder cattle sold mixed last week amid struggling futures prices and as this year’s grass cattle orders begin to end.

With that said, the only weekly Friday auction I had to report was for Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction in South Dakota where prices were strongly higher compared to two weeks earlier. Steers weighing 700-749 lbs. sold $10-$12 higher and then $3-$6 higher at 750-849 lbs. Heifers weighing 600-699 lbs. sold $8-$12 higher and then $3 higher at 700-799 lbs. There were 4,318 head on offer.

Week to week on Thursday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.70 lower ($3.12 to $9.57 lower). Added pressure came from a bounce in Corn futures tied to USDA’s Prospective Plantings report.

******************************

Animal health officials continue to investigate an illness among dairy cows that is causing decreased lactation, low appetite, and other symptoms.

Last Monday, USDA, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (FDC) confirmed cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows exhibiting these symptoms. Confirmed cases include two dairy herds in Kansas and two dairy herds in Texas. Later in the week, HPAI was also confirmed in a Michigan dairy herd that recently received cows from Texas. Presumptive positive test results have also been received for additional herds in New Mexico, Idaho, and Texas.

USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed that the strain of the virus found in Michigan is very similar to the strain confirmed in Texas and Kansas, which appears to have been introduced by wild birds. Initial testing found no changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans. While cases among humans in direct contact with infected animals are possible, this indicates that the current risk to the public remains low.

“There continues to be no concern about the safety of the commercial milk supply because products are pasteurized before entering the market, or that this circumstance poses a risk to consumer health,” according to a statement issued by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Services (APHIS) on Friday. “Dairies are required to send only milk from healthy animals into processing for human consumption; milk from impacted animals is being diverted or destroyed so that it does not enter the human food supply. In addition, pasteurization has continually proven to inactivate bacteria and viruses, like influenza, in milk. Pasteurization is required for any milk entering interstate commerce for human consumption.”

Spread of symptoms among the Michigan herd also indicates that HPAI transmission between cattle cannot be ruled out, according to the agencies. USDA and partners have advised veterinarians and producers to practice good biosecurity, test animals before necessary movements, minimize animal movements, and isolate sick cattle from the herd. Among the dairies whose herds are exhibiting symptoms, the affected animals have recovered after isolation with little to no associated mortality reported.

“Milk loss resulting from symptomatic cattle to date is too limited to have a major impact on supply and there should be no impact on the price of milk or other dairy products,” according to the APHIS statement.