WLI

Cattle futures were higher into the close and before settlement on Thursday, despite steady to lower early cash fed cattle prices and recently weaker wholesale beef values.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 95¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Compared to last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $182/cwt. and $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $185 where dressed delivered prices were $4 lower at mostly $293.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184 in the Texas Panhandle and $187 in Nebraska where dressed delivered prices were $296-$297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ higher at $298.37/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $295.15.

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures were trending lower at the close Thursday with pressure from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures 3¢ to 5¢ lower through Mar ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 11¢ lower through May ‘25. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through next March.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday with most of the support coming from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 271 points.

Late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were little changed but lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service increased projected five-area direct average fed steer prices for the remainder of this year in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Compared to the previous month, based on recent data and expected strength in demand, forecast prices increased $2 in the second quarter to $185/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $184 and $4 in the fourth quarter to $190. The annual average price increased $2 to $185.

That was with beef production estimated 130 million pounds more at 26.5 billion pounds. Forecast production was raised on heavier weights and increased slaughter.

Cattle futures lost more ground Wednesday with pressures including heavy carcass weights and announced import restrictions by some states on cattle from states with confirmed cases of Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV).

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.57 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.72 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas and $187 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $296-$297 in Nebraska and $297 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.86 lower at $298.23/cwt. Select was $3.88 lower at $296.02.

Turning to row crops, heading toward Wednesday’s close, Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ to 17¢ higher through Dec ’25 which helped drag Corn futures mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher through near Dec.

However, Soybean futures were 5¢ to 9¢ lower ahead of Thursday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by another reading of sticky inflation.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before seasonal adjustment, the all items index increased 3.5% over the last 12 months, which was more than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 422 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 49 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 136 points.

Late afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were little changed but higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained some Tuesday with a likely technical bounce.

At the close and before final settlement, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher, while Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.94 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$184 in Kansas and $187 in the north. Dressed delivered prices were $296-$297 in Nebraska and $297 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $302.09/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $299.90.

Turning to row crops, positive weather outlooks in the U.S. and South America helped pressure grains Tuesday. Heading toward the close,

Corn futures were down 4¢ to 6¢ through Dec. ’25, Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 6¢ to 13¢ lower through Dec ’25 and Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ lower through the front of the Board.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 52 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 61¢ to $1.15 lower through the front six contracts.

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Funds exiting long positions pulled the rug from under Cattle futures when Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza was confirmed in dairy cattle and linked to a human case soon after. However, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University says some price adjustment should already have been expected.

Incidentally, because there is a difference, the American Association of Bovine Practitioners now refers to the virus as Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV).

“Beef packer margins are as poor as they have been for over a year. The first quarter typically has the poorest margins and that is where things are,” Koontz explains, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “Pressure to lower fed cattle prices remains to be expected. Cash cattle feeding margins are also relatively even compared to the strength observed in all of 2023. Under such conditions pressure on feeder cattle prices are anticipated. Given these underlying conditions, a rapid return to observed high price levels for fed cattle and calves is unlikely.”

Further, Koontz noted the inventory of cattle on feed for more than 150 days, as calculated from USDA reports, is among the most since the pandemic.

“Therefore, packer leverage in bargaining will remain strong into the second quarter, and the impetus for other heavy placements will be mitigated,” Koontz says. “It is rather possible that the spring market rally has occurred and is over.”

Higher wholesale beef values helped Live Cattle futures firm on Monday.

Live Cattle closed an average of 67¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ lower, except for $1.45 higher in spot Apr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $187 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.50 lower at $185.73. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.62 lower at $296.87.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.90 higher Monday afternoon at $302.07/cwt. Select was $5.57 higher at $300.27/cwt.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 5 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 34¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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As reported in the last issue of Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports continued to firm in February, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Although volume was down, value for the month was 10% higher at 830.4 million.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University lent perspective in his weekly market comments Monday. He explained beef exports continue to face headwinds as beef production decreases and beef prices increase in the U.S. market.

“A generally strong U.S. dollar adds additional headwinds, making U.S. beef imports more expensive to international customers,” Peel says. “At the same time, decreasing domestic beef supplies in the U.S., coupled with higher prices, attracts additional beef imports, with the strong dollar adding additional incentive for beef imports.” He explains beef imported to the U.S. typically is lean processing beef to supplement decreasing supplies of non-fed beef in the U.S.

Peel notes decreasing domestic lean beef supplies and strong ground beef prices are pushing both to record price levels.

Moreover, while fed steer and heifer beef production is declining, Peel notes the current large percentage of yield grade 4 and 5 cattle in feedlots means that the supply of fatty (50% lean) trimmings is high relative to lean beef supplies.

Cattle futures plumbed lower Friday with continued concerns about Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in dairy cattle.

Live Cattle closed an average of $3.08 lower ($2.70 to $3.80 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.96 lower ($3.92 to $5.85 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $183-$184, $2-$3 lower in Nebraska at $187 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$5 lower in Nebraska at $296-$297 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $297.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ higher Friday afternoon at $297.17/cwt. Select was $1.35 lower at $294.70/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 609,000 head was 23,000 more than the previous week and 4,000 head more than the same week a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 8.3 million head was 473,000 fewer (-5.4%) year over year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 7.0 billion pounds was 264.6 million pounds less (-3.7%).

Corn futures closed mostly unchanged to fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher through Nov ’24 and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Friday on the bullish employment situation.

Total non-farm employment grew by 303,000 in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was significantly more than expected. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls was 12¢ higher in March at $34.69.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 199 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed  16¢ to 32¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continue to gain firmer footing, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports reached 103,883 metric tons (mt) in February, down 1% from a year ago, but export value increased 10% to $830.4 million. January-February exports were down 1% to 203,647 mt, while export value increased 9% to $1.59 billion.

February beef export value equated to $412.79 per head of fed slaughter, up 5% from a year ago. The January-February average was $385.78 per head, which was 7% higher.

“Tight beef supplies are definitely a challenge for exporters, and that situation isn’t going to change anytime soon,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “But on a positive note, we are seeing more opportunities for underutilized beef cuts, including the round, shoulder clod and variety meat, in the global marketplace. Demand is strong throughout the Western Hemisphere and the foodservice and hospitality sectors are finally gaining some momentum in key Asian markets such as Korea, where the post-COVID recovery has been slower than anticipated.”

February beef exports to the Caribbean were the largest on record, while demand from Mexico and Central and South America continued to trend higher.

In the other side of the fence, February pork exports increased 14% from a year ago to 250,930 mt, while value jumped 15% to $685.1 million. Through the first two months of 2024, exports increased 10% in both volume (502,354 mt) and value ($1.37 billion).