WLI

Cattle futures were sharply lower Friday, pressured by bearish outside markets and another week of lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices. Also on Friday, the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7, which represents workers at the JBS plant, gave notice that it was cancelling its extension agreement effective 11:59 p.m., March 15. So, workers could go on strike as soon as March 16 (see related news below).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.13 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.26 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.33 higher (47¢ to $2.35 higher), recapturing some of the previous week’s losses. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.01 higher (20¢ higher at the front to $1.72 higher toward the back of the board).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from active on good demand in Nebraska to moderate on good demand in the western Corn Belt through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $240/cwt., which was generally $2 lower in Nebraska and $3 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $380, which was $3 lower in Nebraska and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Trade was limited on moderate to good demand in the Southern Plains with too few transactions to trend. FOB prices the previous week were $244.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 33¢ higher Friday afternoon at $387.22/cwt. Select was $1.66 lower at $378.95. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed was $7.38 higher and Select was $4.64 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 521,000 head was 2,000 head more than the previous week but 58,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 5 million head was 555,000 head fewer (-10%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated total beef production of 4.4 billion pounds was 374.9 million pounds less (-7.8%).

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday, buoyed by higher energy prices and inflationary hedging by funds.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures closed 23¢ to 31¢ higher through May ‘27. Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 21¢ higher through near Nov and then mostly 2¢ to 8¢ higher. Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 13’4¢ higher through the front six contracts, an average of 20’6¢ higher in the last two weeks.

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Major U.S. financial indices sagged lower Friday, weighed down by sharply higher Crude Oil futures, tied to the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran, as well as an unexpectedly dismal employment reading.

Rather than gaining, as many anticipated, total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15¢ to $37.32. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 453 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 90 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 361 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.82 to $9.89 higher through the front six contracts. Week to week on Friday, those contracts were an average of $14.84 higher.

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As mentioned earlier, the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7, which represents workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colo., gave notice that it was cancelling its extension agreement, paving the way for workers to potentially go on strike as soon as March 16. Uncertainty caused by the potential continues to roil Cattle futures prices.

Packers are struggling with historically high fed cattle prices despite historically high wholesale beef prices and even higher retail beef prices. All has everything to do with historically low cattle numbers, in tandem with extraordinary consumer beef demand. The market logic is straightforward.

Yet, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other Senate Democrats took aim at high beef prices last week with legislation that could do nothing but drive prices higher.

The Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act (FGFRA) bill introduced by Senator Schumer and others would, according to the authors, “… break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign controlled corporate giants, and use federal tools to stop unfair pricing that drives up grocery bills for American families and hurts workers, farmers, and ranchers.”

Among other things, the FGFRA would make it unlawful for a major meatpacking conglomerate to control more than one major type of meat, forcing the biggest players to choose a line of business and impose hard caps on the concentration of beef markets at both the regional and national levels.

“Schumer’s bill and other efforts to villainize meat packers is simply reckless election year pandering that threatens to damage a crucial industry at the center of every American meal,” says Julie Anna Potts, Meat Institute President and CEO. “If the Senator is trying to make meat and poultry more affordable for consumers, this is the wrong approach. It will have the opposite effect. While this may be just a messaging bill to Senator Schumer, it is real life for American families, farmers and ranchers and for the 3.2 million Americans employed throughout the industry.”

Cattle futures were mixed on Thursday.  

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 34¢ higher on continued fundamental strength.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.31 lower with likely profit taking from the previous session’s sharp gains.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $244/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $239-$243 in Nebraska and mainly $243 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383 in Nebraska and $382-$383 on a light test in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.68 lower Thursday afternoon at $386.89/cwt. Select was 26¢ higher at $380.61.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced higher Thursday, supported by higher energy prices and some likely early inflationary hedging by funds.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 19¢ to 22¢ higher. Corn futures were 8¢ to 10¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by resurgent Crude Oil futures, which climbed in response to the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 784 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 58 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.39 to $4.80 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA issued the U.S. and Canadian Cattle inventory report this week.

Although the U.S. beef cow herd at the beginning of this year was 284,000 head fewer (-1%) year over year at 27.6 million, the Canadian herd increased by 64,900 head (1.9%) to 3.4 million head. Beef heifers for replacement increased 41,700 head (0.9%) in the U.S. and 24,700 head (4.8%) in Canada. Total cattle and calves in the United States and Canada was about even year over year at 97.3 million head, representing a decrease of 316,900 head (-0.4%) in the United States and an increase of 275,000 head (2.5%) in Canada.

Recently surging wholesale beef values and more positive outside market helped Cattle futures rally higher Wednesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.11 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.96 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $244/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $239-$243 in Nebraska and mainly $243 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383 in Nebraska and $382-$383 on a light test in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 52¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $388.57/cwt. Select was $1.77 higher at $380.35.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower Wednesday, as traders appeared to reduce some risk premium based on the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, as well as domestic weather.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 13¢ lower. Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Wednesday, following the early-week selloff tied to the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, led by tech stocks and supported by decelerating Crude Oil futures and a more bullish labor reading than expected.

Private sector employment increased by 63,000 jobs in February and pay was up 4.5% year-over-year according to the February ADP National Employment Report^®.

“We’ve seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers,” says Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching employers hit a record low in February.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 290 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 50¢ to $1.12 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mostly able to hold the previous session’s gains on Tuesday after early pressure tied to declining outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from unchanged to an average of 72¢ lower in three contracts (2¢ to $1.97 lower) and then an average of 26¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $244/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $239-$243 in Nebraska and mainly $243 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383 in Nebraska  and $382-$383 on a light test in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.71 higher Tuesday afternoon at $388.05/cwt. Select was 37¢ higher at $378.58.

Grain and Soybean futures trended higher Tuesday, as traders digested the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday as Crude Oil futures continued higher in response the U.S.-Israel attacks against Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 403 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 64 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 232 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.15 to $3.78 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved slightly in February, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index increased 3 points from January to a reading of 116. The Current Conditions Index climbed 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index slipped by 1 point and fell to its lowest level since September 2024. The survey was conducted Feb. 2-6.

“Although producers reported stronger current conditions in February, the overall survey sentiment suggests farmers are carefully weighing short-term stability against longer-term uncertainty,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Many operations are still feeling financial pressure compared to a year ago, which is evident in their cautious investment strategies and a more reserved outlook for the coming year.”

Approximately 44% of respondents said their farm operations were worse off in February than a year earlier. Looking ahead, producers remained cautious about their financial outlook, with 29% expecting their farm’s financial performance to worsen over the next 12 months, compared to 18% who anticipated an improvement.

Producers’ views on the broader direction of the U.S. economy weakened slightly for the second consecutive month; the percentage who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” declined from 62% in January to 59% in February.

Since 2016, the February barometer survey has included questions about producers’ long-term growth plans. This year, approximately 15% of respondents said they plan to reduce the size of their operation, while 34% reported no plans to grow. By contrast, 51% indicated they expect to expand their farms over the next five years, including 14% who plan to increase their operation’s size by 10% or more. The survey also found that 36% of producers plan to bring another family member into the business during the next five years, signaling a continued emphasis on expansion and succession planning despite ongoing financial concerns.

Cattle futures were under early pressure Monday from lower outside markets tied to uncertainty about the impact of the U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran. Ultimately, though, Cattle futures trended mainly higher.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 higher (65¢ to $1.57 higher), except for $1.42 lower in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.48 higher, except for $3.45 lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5 lower in the Southern Plains at $244/cwt., $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $239-$243 and mostly $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $243.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $5 lower in Nebraska at mainly $383 and $5-$6 lower in the western Corn Belt at $382-$383 in a light test.

The five-area direct weekly weighted average fed steer price was $4.20 lower at $242.71/cwt. The weekly weighted averaged dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.35 lower at $382.60.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.50 higher Monday afternoon at $381.34/cwt. Select was $3.90 higher at $378.21.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower Monday, pressured by uncertainty related to the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, as well as likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 14¢ lower. Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were down hard at Monday’s open as Crude Oil futures spiked higher in response the U.S.-Israel attacks against Iran. Later, investors appeared willing to take advantage of the pullback.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 73 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 80 points.

Although off of session highs, through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.04 to $4.61 higher through the front six contracts.

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Continuing drought and the threat of drought will likely make producers cautious about aggressive herd expansion in major beef cow states where the majority of herd liquidation has occurred, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Compared to the recent peak in 2019, Peel explains the national beef cow herd at the beginning of this year was 4.03 million head less (-12.7%) at 27.61 million head.

“A proportionally larger share of herd liquidation has occurred in the heart of beef cow production regions,” Peel says.  “In 2019, 13 states in the middle of the country accounted for 64.6% of the total herd but by 2026, the share had dropped to 63.1%. The herd-inventory change in these 13 states in the past seven years totaled 3.0 million head, 74.3% of the total herd decrease.”

Beside drought concerns, Peel says changes in crop production and land use could pose expansion challenges in some areas.

“From 2019 to 2025, corn and soybean planted acreage in the U.S. increased by 8.6%, an increase of 14.2 million acres,” Peel explains. “In South Dakota, planted crop acreage increased by 3.38 million acres, up 24.5% from 2019 to 2026, with corn and soybean acreage up by 52.2%. Simultaneously, hay acreage in the state decreased by 710 thousand acres.”

Along with South Dakota, Peel says it appears increased crop production is likely to limit herd rebuilding in the Midwest and eastern regions of Great Plains states, including Kansas, Nebraska and North Dakota.