WLI

Cattle futures plumbed lower Friday, with continued concern about a potential strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colo., lower cash fed cattle prices, bearish outside markets, as well as month-end profit taking and technical selling.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.49 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $7.51 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.30 lower ($2.57 lower in expiring Feb to $9.77 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $12.88 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle ranged from moderate on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $5 lower in the Southern Plains at $244/cwt. and $4-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $240-$243. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $247-$248.

Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower in Nebraska at $383. The previous week, prices were $388 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.95 higher Friday afternoon at $379.84/cwt. Select was $3.52 higher at $374.31. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $13.14 higher at $379.84/cwt. and Select was $13.57 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 516,000 head was the same as the previous week but 53,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Total year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 4.5 million head was 501,000 head fewer (-10.1%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 4 billion pounds was 342.3 million pounds less (-7.9%).

Wheat futures led the grain complex ahead on Friday, closing 10¢ to 21¢ higher on short covering tied to weather concerns in India.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ higher through near Dec and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher through near Aug  and then mostly 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with likely month-end and week-end position squaring, along with pressure from a more bearish inflation reading than expected.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% month to month in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 521 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 210 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.39 to $1.81 higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle sold mixed, but mainly steady to lower at the auctions monitored by Cattle Current last week, especially later as Cattle futures declined. Growing demand for replacement heifers was evident at many auctions.

These comments from Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reporters capture the week-end flavor.

“Demand for grass cattle was very good … Buyers looking for grass heifers dipped into the light end of replacement heifers in order to buy high quality cattle. This class of cattle showed the largest increase in value week over week,” according to the AMS reporter at Public Auction Yards in Billings, MT on Friday. “Cattle too big to go to grass were the soft part of the sale as lighter offerings made putting together loads of like- quality cattle difficult. Additionally, CME positions sold off sharply today which put some pressure on this class of cattle.”

Likewise, the AMS reporter at Herreid Livestock Auction in South Dakota on Friday noted, “Very good demand for backgrounding or grass type cattle today, good to very good demand for finishing type cattle depending on flesh condition and very good demand for replacement heifers.”

A day earlier, at Cattlemen’s Livestock Auction in Dalhart, Texas, the AMS reported explained, “Wheat cattle may continue to come to town as the weather warms up and not much chance of precipitation in the near future. Grass fires have plagued the area recently with the continuing dry weather and plenty of fuel left over from this last summer.”

While grass cattle will likely continue to command the strongest demand headibg into March, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, points out in his weekly market comments feeder cattle prices have a seasonal tendency to weaken.

 “The softening of feeder cattle prices in March correlates with finished cattle prices six months down the road when those cattle will come off feed in early fall. These are months with softer finished cattle prices,” Griffith explains.

Cattle futures stepped lower Thursday, pressured by wariness over a potential strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, CO and softer early cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.84 lower, except for unchanged in expiring Feb. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.05 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was moderate on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

In Nebraska, early dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $383/cwt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $243-$245; prices last week were mainly $247-$248.

In the western Corn Belt, early FOB live prices were $2-$4 lower at $243. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $382-$383; prices last week were $388.

Trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices there last week were $249.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.34 lower Thursday afternoon at $377.89/cwt. Select was $3.72 higher at $370.79.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Thursday with early pressure from disappointing weekly export sales.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher.  Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Thursday, pressured by tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 down 37 points. The NASDAQ was down 273 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 5¢ to 11¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity numbered, 2,082 last year, which was 23 fewer than the previous year, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report. There were 24,000 feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity, which was the same as a year earlier — so, a total of 26,082 feedlots.

Total capacity for feedlots of all sizes was 17.1 million head, just 100,000 head less than the previous year.

“Feedlot capacity has averaged 17.07 million head for the past 20 years, ranging from 16.7 million head in 2009 to 17.3 million head in 2017,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Total feedlot capacity has varied between 17.1 and 17.2 million head since 2018. The total feedlot inventory on Jan. 1 (2026) was 81% of total feedlot capacity with feedlots of greater than 1,000 head capacity utilizing 67% of total feedlot capacity.”

While feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity represented 92% of all feedlots, they accounted for just 12.9% of total fed cattle marketing last year, according to Peel. On the other end of the size scale, he explains, 4% had a capacity of more than 50,000 head, while 3% possessed capacity of 32,000 to 50,000 head.

“The largest feedlots accounted for 41% of fed cattle marketed, along with another 18% for the second largest category,” Peel says. “Thus, 7.1% of the largest feedlots marketed 58.8% of fed cattle in 2025. For feedlots with greater than 50,000 head capacity, 82 feedlots marketed 8.39 million head, or average marketings per feedlot of 102,317 head in 2025.” For comparison he notes feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity marketed about 126 head on average.

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday, helped along by another day of higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.19 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.99 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $249/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mainly $247-$248 in Nebraska and $245-$247 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 higher Wednesday afternoon at $379.23/cwt. Select was $1.06 higher at $367.07.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower again on further profit taking. Soybean futures were mostly 6¢ to 10¢ higher on continued optimism about trade talks with China. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Wednesday, once again led by tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 56 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 288 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 5¢ to 11¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures firmed and crept higher Tuesday without the previous day’s pressure from outside markets and supported by higher wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 36¢ higher, except for 7¢ lower in near Apr. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 59¢ higher, except for an average of 18¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $249/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mainly $247-$248 in Nebraska and $245-$247 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $388.

Choice wholesale values surged higher, perhaps with buyers positioning against the potential JBS strike.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.21 higher Tuesday afternoon at $377.43/cwt. Select was $1.70 higher at $366.01.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Tuesday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Corn futures were 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by continued optimism about U.S. trade talks with China and perhaps the reported slower year-over-year harvest pace in Brazil.

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Major U.S. financial indices regained some ground lost in the previous session, led by tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 370 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 236 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 11¢ lower to 16¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Jan. 31 were up slightly from the previous month but down 4% from last year, according to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were 6% more than the previous month and up 1% from last year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 2% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were 3% more than the previous month but 3% less than a year earlier.

Cattle futures closed lower again Monday, pressured by bearish outside markets and despite Friday’s neutral-to-friendly Cattle on Feed report. Uncertainty also lingered about the potential strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colo.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.16 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $249/cwt., mostly $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at mainly $247-$248 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $245-$247. Dressed delivered prices were $388, which was $6 higher in Nebraska and $6-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $1.29 higher at $246.91. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.82 higher at $387.95.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.52 higher Monday afternoon at $369.22/cwt. Select was $3.57 higher at $364.31.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Monday with some likely repositioning and profit taking based on tariff uncertainty.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures were 11¢ to 13¢ lower. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally mixed to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Monday, pressured in part by confusion and uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 821 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 71 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 258 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ lower to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA provided the first glimpse of crop planting expectations at its Agricultural Outlook Forum last week. Analysts project acres planted to corn, wheat and soybeans to decline 1.3 million acres to 224 million. Forecast corn acres of 94 million acres would be 4.8 million acres less than last year and wheat acres of 45 million would be 300,000 acres less. Projected soybean acres of 85 million would be 3.8 million acres more.

For the 2026-27 crop year, USDA projects season-average prices received by farmers to be 10¢ higher for corn at $4.20 per bushel and wheat prices to be slightly higher at $5 per bushel. Soybean price was estimated marginally higher at $10.30 per bushel.

“A large 2025/26 corn crop and increased domestic soybean crush are expected to keep feedstuffs available for livestock producers,” according to the report. “Hay production increased slightly in 2025—including a 1% increase in alfalfa hay production. On farm hay stocks on Dec. 1, 2025 were estimated to be 81.7 million tons; a slight increase from the previous year and higher than the recent low in 2022 of 71.7 million tons. Alfalfa hay prices fell significantly in 2024 and 2025 as supplies have recovered. For 2026, prices are expected to be stable relative to a year ago and remain below highs seen in recent years.”