WLI

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.86 higher ($1.17 to $2.62 higher), helped along by weaker Corn futures and cash strength.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 57¢ higher, supported by cash strength and rising wholesale beef values.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.19 higher Tuesday afternoon at $295.10/cwt. Select was $3.64 higher at $282.04/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $170/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $174-$177 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $275-$280.

Grain and Soybean futures seemed to bow to weather and outside markets more than the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday as investors awaited key inflation data Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 98 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 52 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.56 to $1.79 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the expected annual five-area direct fed steer price for this year by $2.50 to $164.50/cwt. In the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), ERS projected the second-quarter price $6 higher than the previous month at $169. Expected prices for the third and fourth quarters were raised by $3 to $162 and $167, respectively.

That was with beef production forecast 110 million pounds more than the previous month (+0.4%) at 26.77 billion pounds. The total would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.3%) than last year.

Corn — This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook was for reduced imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. With supply and use falling by the same amount, ending stocks were unchanged at 1.34 billion bushels.

The season-average farm price was unchanged at $6.60 per bushel.

Soybeans — U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts for 2022/23 were unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean meal prices also were unchanged at $14.30 per bushel and $465 per short ton, respectively. The soybean oil price was projected 2¢ lower at 64¢ cents per pound.

Wheat — The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat was for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks were raised 30 million bushels to 598 million, still 14% below last year.

The 2022/23 season-average farm price was forecast 10¢ per bushel lower at $8.90, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $3-$5 higher in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt., $5-$6 higher in Nebraska at $174-$177 and $4-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $174-$177. Dressed prices were $5-$8 higher at $275-$280.

The five-area weighted average direct fed steer price (FOB) last week was record high at $173.10/cwt. on a live basis, which was $4.36 higher than the previous week. The average fed steer price in the beef was $8.29 higher at $278.65.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.93 higher Monday afternoon at $292.91/cwt. Select was $2.62 higher at $278.40/cwt.

Cattle futures continued to rise Monday, on the back of the last two-week’s surge in cash prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 61¢ higher (22¢ to $1.27 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed 44¢ higher.

Corn futures gained Monday with some likely positioning ahead of Tuesday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 10¢ higher through Jly ‘24, and then mostly 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed 11¢ to 33¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday as investors returned from the holiday weekend and grappled with the prospects of recession as Fed monetary policy battles inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 101 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 3 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 72¢ to 96¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Historically high fed cattle prices are unlikely to fade as much as seasonal trends indicate, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“In a steady market, fed prices would typically peak seasonally about now and move lower through the third quarter before increasing to the end of the year,” Peel explains, in his weekly market comments. “This sort of typical pattern is currently priced into the Live Cattle futures with futures prices decreasing from the nearby April (currently just over $171/cwt.) to June (about $163/cwt.) and August ($162/cwt.) before increasing in the October contract ($166/cwt.) and December ($171/cwt.). At this time, Live Cattle futures prices do not exceed nearby levels until the February 2024 contract (currently $174/cwt.).”

However, Peel notes the strong uptrend in fed cattle prices in 2021 and 2022 offset seasonal trends.

“There is good reason to expect the uptrend to continue in 2023. The seasonality priced into the markets now may fade as markets trend higher going forward,” he says. “Feedlot inventories are just beginning to fall with ever tighter feeder cattle supplies and are likely to continue decreasing at least through 2023, pushing fed prices higher. Fed prices may increase more slowly or plateau briefly in the summer months but are not likely to have a typical seasonal decline going forward.”   

For current perspective, the five-area weighted average direct fed steer price last week was record high at $173.10/cwt. on a live basis, which was $4.36 higher than the previous week. The average fed steer price in the beef was $8.29 higher at $278.65.

You can hear more of Peel’s market insights here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $3-$5 higher in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $172-$177 and $5-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $175-$177. Dressed prices were $5-$8 higher at $275-$280.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.33 higher Friday afternoon at $290.98/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $275.78/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $8.91 higher and Select was $5.06 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 603,000 head, which was 48,000 head fewer than the previous week and 62,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 8.8 million head was 253,000 head less (-2.8%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 7.24 billion pounds was 342 million pounds less (-4.5%).

Futures markets were closed on observance of Good Friday. Week to week on Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.67 higher (85¢ higher at the back to $3.52 higher at the front). That was an average of $6.14 higher over the past two weeks.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.15 higher week to week on Thursday (72¢ higher at the front to $3.55 higher at the back). That was an average of $8.94 higher over the past two weeks.

Equity markets were closed for Good Friday.

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USDA estimated acreage for principal crops almost 6 million acres more for this year compared to last, in the recent Perspective Plantings report. If those expectations are fulfilled and Mother Nature allows trend line yields, then increased production should moderate feed prices. However, other factors could keep the price floor higher, say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“LMIC estimates the season average price will be $5.45 per bushel in 2023/2024. The current marketing year, LMIC has adjusted exports lower,” LMIC analysts say. “Troubles with the South American crop are expected to not allow U.S. corn prices to come down meaningfully. LMIC forecasts a $6.95 per bushel season average price for this marketing year. Omaha corn price has been over $7 per bushel for 22 weeks this season and only briefly dipped below $6.50 for a week.”

As for hay, USDA-estimated acres were slightly lower than LMIC projections ahead of the report.

“Original forecasts were for a 3% increase in hay acres, driven by other hay. Forecasts were revised to a 2.4% increase for the 2023/2024 marketing year,” LMIC analysts say. “Prices remain elevated and continue to be tweaked as we enter the tail end of the 2022/2023 marketing year. Alfalfa prices are projected at $270 per ton nationally this year and $235 per ton next year. Other hay prices are estimated at $170 per ton this year and $155 per ton next year.”

Cattle futures took another strong step higher Thursday, buoyed by another week of significant cash gains.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.96 higher, also helped along by a break in Corn futures

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.76 higher (85¢ to $2.80 higher) with added support from recently higher wholesale beef prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow to moderate on moderate demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live prices are $3-$5 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $170/cwt., $4-$5 higher in Nebraska at $172-$177 and $2-$7 higher in the western Corn Belt at $172-$177. Dressed prices are $5-$8 higher at $275-$280.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.03 higher Thursday afternoon at $289.65/cwt. Select was $1.53 lower at $276.63/cwt.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 9¢ lower through Jly ‘24, and then mostly fractionally higher, with pressure including a more favorable weather outlook.

KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through May ‘24 and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 18¢ lower through Jan ‘24 and then mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices mostly edged higher Thursday with initial weekly unemployment insurance claims higher than expected, another potential sign of a slowing economy.

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000 the week ending April 1, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was 18,000 less than the previous week’s level, which was revised 48,000 higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 91 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed narrowly mixed through the front six contracts, from 10¢ lower to 9¢ higher.

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U.S. beef exports were lower year-over-year in February but improved from the previous month, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 105,057 metric tons (mt ) in February, down 3% from a year ago, while export value dropped 16% to $757.8 million. For the first two months of the year, exports were down 9% from last year’s large volume to just under 206,000 mt, while export value dipped 24% to $1.46 billion. February exports to Japan and South Korea increased slightly from a year ago, though value trended lower. Through February, beef exports trended significantly higher year-over-year to Mexico, the Caribbean, the European Union and South Africa.

“On the beef side, it was encouraging to see a modest rebound compared to January,” says Dan Halstrom USMEF President and CEO. “With Asian markets continuing to ease indoor mask mandates and eliminate travel restrictions, we expect to see a continued boost in restaurant traffic and foodservice demand as the year progresses.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $165-$167/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle; $167 in Kansas, $168-$172 in Nebraska and $170 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $270-$272.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $288.62/cwt. Select was 21¢ higher at $278.16/cwt.

Cattle future closed narrowly mixed Wednesday, awaiting weekly cash direction.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 34¢ lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 11¢ higher, except for 80¢ higher in spot Apr and unchanged in the back contract.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher, except for unchanged to 1¢ lower in old-crop contracts

KC HRW Wheat closed mostly 11¢ to 14¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ‘24 and then fractionally higher to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly lower Wednesday with more economic data suggesting the domestic economy is losing steam.

Private sector employment increased by 145,000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 6.9% year-over-year, according to the March ADP® National Employment ReportTM.

“Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 80 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 129 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 6¢ to 10¢ lower through the front six contracts. 

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Record U.S. beef and export values last year generated significant returns to the U.S. corn and soybean industries, according to an independent study conducted by World Perspectives, Inc. and released by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). U.S. beef and pork exports contributed an estimated total economic impact of 15% per bushel to the value of corn and 13% per bushel to soybeans.

“For every bushel of corn we marketed in 2022, a little over $1 was attributed to red meat exports and with soybeans, pork exports contributed $1.94 per bushel,” says USMEF Chair Dean Meyer, who produces corn, soybeans, cattle and hogs near Rock Rapids, Iowa. “Pork and beef exports bring critical support to our bottom lines.”

Corn and soybean growers support the international promotion of U.S. pork, beef and lamb by investing a portion of their checkoff dollars in market development efforts conducted by USMEF.

“We are a major exporter of corn and soybeans but this study reminds us of the value of our indirect exports of corn and soybeans through pork and beef,” says Dave Juday, senior analyst for World Perspectives. “The contributions of pork and beef exports to the per-bushel value of U.S. corn and soybeans in 2022 were the highest estimates we’ve seen to date. And that was critically important, as corn and soybean farmers worked to maintain margins with higher input costs across the board.”