WLI

Through Friday afternoon’s report, weekly negotiated cash fed cattle trade had yet to be established in the Southern Plains. Prices were higher in other regions, though. Live prices were $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $163-$164/cwt. and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $164, where dressed prices were $3 higher at $260. Dressed trade in Nebraska the previous week was at $257. The prior week, live prices were $162 in the Southern Plains.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower Friday afternoon at 287.28/cwt. Select was $1.21 higher at $277.08/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 618,000 head was 9,000 head fewer than the previous week and 33,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter was 121,000 head fewer (-2.3%) than last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 4.1 billion lbs. was 181.1 million pounds less (-4.2%).

Cattle futures took a breather Friday amid likely profit taking and positioning ahead of what turned out to be a neutral-to-positive Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 20¢ lower to an average of 16¢ higher. They were an average of $3 higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ lower, except for an average of 5¢ higher in the front two contracts. Week to week, there were an average of 70¢ higher.

Wheat futures dragged the grain complex lower Friday on chatter about a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

KC HRW Wheat closed 19¢ to 22¢ lower.

Corn futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ lower through Jly ‘24 and then 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by another reading of too-hot inflation. The personal consumption expenditures index (PCI) — closely watched by the FOMC — was higher than the trade expected. Excluding food and energy the PCI was 0.6% higher month to month in January and 4.7% higher year over year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 336 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 42 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 195 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 66¢ to 93¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to a touch friendly with slightly fewer placements and cattle on feed than estimated ahead of the report.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.9 million head in January, which was 3.6% less than the previous year.

In terms of placement weights, 43% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less; 49% weighing 700-899 lbs.; 8% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Cattle feeders marketed 1.8 million head in January, which was 4.2% more than last year.

Cattle on feed of Feb. 1 of 11.7 million head were 505,000 head fewer (-4.1%).

The latest report also includes summary data for the past two years.

Last year, 12.8% of fed cattle marketings came from feedlots with less than 1,000 head of capacity (3,325,000) versus 22,590,000 for +1,000 of 22,590,000. Total marketings were 25,915,000

Total fed cattle marketings in 2022 were 73,000 head more (+0.3%) year over year.

There were 1,000 fewer feedlots with less than 1,000-head capacity last year (24,000) than the year before. They marketed 5,000 head more than the previous year (3.32 million head).

There were 27 fewer feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity. They marketed 68,000 head more than the previous year. Feedlots with 16,000 head or more capacity grew or remained the same — 265 feedlots in 2021 versus 273 in 2022.

Cattle futures — especially Feeder Cattle — gained Thursday with sharply lower nearby Corn futures, as well as likely positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.55 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon. Although too few to trend, there were some early live sales in Nebraska at $164/cwt.

Last week, prices on a live basis were $162 in the southern Plains, $159-$161 in Nebraska and $160-$162 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $257 in Nebraska and $254-$257 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was unchanged Thursday afternoon at 287.91/cwt. Select was $2.23 higher at $275.87/cwt.

Corn futures closed lower Thursday with much of the pressure likely stemming from the Grains and Oilseeds Outlook shared at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, which projected 2023/24 production to be the second largest in history (see below).

Corn futures closed 13¢ to 15¢ lower through old-crop contracts and then 4¢ to 7¢ lower through new-crop.

KC HRW Wheat closed 10¢ to 14¢ lower through near Jly and then 3¢ to 7¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased higher Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 108 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 83 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.30 to $1.44 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA projects 2023/24 U.S. corn production about 10% more year over year at 15.085 billion bushels, in the Grains and Oilseeds Outlook shared at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum. That would be the second highest production in history and go a long way in shoring up depleted stocks. Much of the gain comes with a projected yield of 181.5 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.

“Ending stocks are projected at 1.887 billion bushels, up 620 million from a year ago and resulting in stocks relative to use at 13.0%, which if realized would be the highest since 2019/20,” according to the Outlook. “The season-average corn price received by producers is forecast down $1.10 to $5.60 per bushel.”

The Livestock and Poultry Outlook (LPO) at the same Forum underscored bullish cattle price expectations.

USDA projects the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price for 2023 at a record $159.00/cwt. That would be about $15 more than the previous year and would eclipse the previous record price established in 2014.

“Feeder cattle prices are projected to jump higher in 2023 as feedlots bid on increasingly tighter cattle supplies,” according to the LPO. “Improved pasture conditions, assumed with normal weather, and tighter calf supplies will likely result in increased competition for lighter-weight cattle with stocker operations. Feeder steer prices for 750–800

pound calves are forecast to average $203.00/cwt., compared to $165.94 in 2022 and nearly equal to record prices in 2014.”

Feeder Cattle futures gained on lower Corn futures, closing an average of 83¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 17¢ higher, except for unchanged to 17¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon.

Last week, prices on a live basis were $162 in the southern Plains, $159-$161 in Nebraska and $160-$162 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $257.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 71¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at 287.91/cwt. Select was $2.80 higher at $273.64/cwt.

Wheat led the grain complex lower Wednesday with favorable domestic moisture, as well as chatter than the Baltic Sea export opening will be extended.

KC HRW Wheat closed 14¢ to 28¢ lower. Corn futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ‘23 and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 9¢ lower through Sep ’23 and then mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed but maintained the losses from the previous session and the bearish tone, underscored by hawkish Federal Reserve minutes. In part, according to minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting:

“Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 84 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 14 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.01 to $2.41 lower through the front six contracts.

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Cutter cow values of $77.47/cwt. the week ending Feb. 10 were the highest since October 2015, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“Cow and bull harvest estimates in the middle of February indicate levels slipped 4% in the last 12 slaughter days from last year,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “January total cow slaughter was largely above a year ago, however, the majority of the increase came from higher numbers of dairy cows, which are averaging more than 5,000 head higher per week than last year. Beef cow slaughter has been on either side of last year’s tallies.” At the time, they said cutter cow numbers were 24% higher year over year.

“Other grades of cows have not seen nearly the price spike that cutters have. Boners (85% lean) are still below last year’s summer levels at $79.76/cwt., as are breakers (75% lean) at $82.17,” LMIC analysts say. “Premium whites are ahead of last year at this time and were $79.10.”

Historically strong February wholesale beef values and dwindling beef production, compounded by reduced feedlot performance due to winter weather, helped Cattle futures move higher Tuesday, despite bearish outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 54¢ higher (22¢ to $1.17 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 58¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.31 higher Tuesday afternoon at 287.20/cwt. Select was $2.79 higher at $270.84/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon. Although too few to trend, there were a few live trades in Nebraska at $161/cwt. and a few in the western Corn Belt at $164.

Last week, prices on a live basis were $162 in the Southern Plains, $159-$161 in Nebraska and $160-$162 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $257.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 18¢ to 21¢ higher through Aug. ’23 and then mostly 10¢ to 13¢ higher.

Historically strong February wholesale beef values and dwindling beef production, compounded by reduced feedlot performance due to winter weather, helped Cattle futures move higher Tuesday, despite bearish outside markets.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 54¢ higher (22¢ to $1.17 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 58¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.31 higher Tuesday afternoon at 287.20/cwt. Select was $2.79 higher at $270.84/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon. Although too few to trend, there were a few live trades in Nebraska at $161/cwt. and a few in the western Corn Belt at $164.

Last week, prices on a live basis were $162 in the Southern Plains, $159-$161 in Nebraska and $160-$162 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $257.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 18¢ to 21¢ higher through Aug. ’23 and then mostly 10¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices dove lower Tuesday with investors apparently rattled by higher bond yield rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 697 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 81 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 294 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 12¢ to 19¢ lower  through the front six contracts.

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The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above the growth neutral threshold 50.0 in February, for the third consecutive month. The index is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy continues to experience slow economic growth. Only 7.4% of bankers reported improving economic conditions for the month with 85.2% indicating no change in economic conditions from January’s slow growth,” says Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The slowing economy, higher borrowing costs and labor shortages continued to constrain the business confidence index to a weak 44.4, but up from 40.4 in January. “Over the past 11 months, the regional confidence index has fallen to levels indicating a very negative outlook,” Goss explains.

The region’s farmland price index decreased to 63.5 from January’s 66.0. This was the 29th straight month that the index has advanced above 50.0. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices on a live basis last week were $1-$2 higher in the Southern Plains at $162/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $159-$161 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $160-$162. Dressed prices were $3 higher at $257.

The weighted average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $1.55 higher on a live basis at $161.17/cwt. The weighted average steer price in the beef was $2.87 higher at $256.78.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.85 higher Monday afternoon at $282.89/cwt. Select was $2.16 higher at $268.05/cwt.

CME Agriculture futures and equity markets were closed Monday in observance of President’s Day

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Tighter cattle supplies continue to drive strong auction demand.

“…cattle buyers are in fierce competition as they pull cattle from a smaller calf crop that will be even smaller this year,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Cow-calf producers are going to have some opportunistic decisions to make the next few years as they will be inclined to retain heifers to grow the beef herd. However, those same heifers will be highly valued in the marketplace.”

Griffith notes shorter supplies continue to tilt leverage from packers to feedlots, as evidenced by the gains the past couple of weeks.

“Cattle feeders have gained significant leverage over the packer due to a reduced number of animals coming off feed and reduced weights,” Griffith explains. “This has left packers in need of inventory to meet obligations. This may seem like unfamiliar territory to cattle feeders since it has been several years since they did hold considerable leverage. However, cattle feeders will maintain this leverage for the next couple of years as the cattle industry works to rebuild beef cow inventory. The question on most people’s mind is how quickly and to what level can cattle feeders raise prices. At the rate they are going, they have and may continue to exceed industry expectations.”