WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $150.00/cwt. and steady in Kansas at $150.

Last week, live prices were $153 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $242 in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 27¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $264.67/cwt. Select was 83¢ lower at $235.22/cwt.

Lower outside markets helped pressure Cattle futures on Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 24¢ lower, except for an average of 11¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 49¢ lower (20¢ to $1.47 lower).

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher through Jly ‘23 and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices sank Wednesday amid uncertainty about the ultimate outcome of the mid-term elections.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 646 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 79 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 263 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.77 to $3.08 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast annual fed steer price for this year and next, in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

ERS projected the annual average five-area direct fed steer price for this year $1 higher than the previous month at $144.15, with the fourth-quarter average at $152.00. The forecast average annual price for next year was $2 higher $156. For 2023, prices were forecast at $153 in the first quarter, $154 in the second quarter and $155 in the third. Price increases were based on stronger expected demand.

ERS increased estimated beef production for this year slightly to 28.35 billion lbs. Beef production next year was forecast at 26.27 billion lbs., which would be 2.1 billion lbs. less (-7.3%) than this year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $149-$150/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $150 in Kansas and $153 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $242 in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 39¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $264.94/cwt. Select was 13¢ higher at $236.05/cwt.

Cattle futures softened Tuesday, perhaps on election defensiveness.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 38¢ lower to an average of 4¢ to higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 18¢ lower, except for unchanged and  22¢ higher in two contracts.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday with investors apparently betting on a more market-friendly landscape following the midterm elections. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 333 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.25 to $2.88 lower through the front six contracts.

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Early-release tables for USDA’s Agricultural Projections report from the Economic Research Service ERS project the beef cow inventory to be 1.1 million head fewer year over year when the new year begins at about 29 million head. That would be 3.6% less than the same time a year earlier. ERS projects the nation’s beef cow herd declining another 387,000 head (-1.3%) to 28.6 million head by Jan. 1 2024 before rebounding back to 29.1 million head Jan. 1, 2025. From there the herd grows slowly to 31.3 million head at the beginning of 2032.

Total cattle inventory in the projections decline 2.5 million head this year (-2.7%) to 89.4 million head and another 800,000 head next year (-0.9%) to 88.6 million head at the beginning of 2024.

Live Cattle futures closed higher Monday, supported by apparent front-end currentness.

They were up an average of 59¢ higher, except for down 33¢ and unchanged in the back two contracts.

Strength in Live Cattle and softer Corn futures helped Feeder Cattle close an average of 53¢ higher (30¢ to 70¢ higher).

Corn futures closed mixed, down 2¢ to 5¢ through May ’24, then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 12¢ lower.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 80¢ higher Monday afternoon at $264.55/cwt. Select was $4.02 higher at $235.92/cwt.

There was no afternoon cash fed cattle report from AMS.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher for a second day ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 424 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 89 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed closed 28¢ to 82¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Drought continues to impact about 63% of the United States (D1-D4), according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

74% of winter wheat production was in areas experiencing drought, as was 68% of hay acreage. Approximately 76% of the nation’s cattle inventory was in drought areas.

According to the latest Crop Progress report, 30% of winter wheat was in Good or Excellent condition, compared to 45% a year earlier. 34% was Poor or Very Poor versus 22% the prior year.

As for crops, 87% of corn was harvested as of Nov. 6. 94% of soybeans were in the bin.

Cattle futures closed mixed Friday with little added short-term support and plenty of uncertainty.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 20¢ lower to an average of 51¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed from an average of 24¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 17¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 22¢ to 25¢ higher through Aug ’23 and then mostly 9¢ to 12¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live sales were steady in the Southern Plains at $150/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $152-$153 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $152-$153. Dressed prices were $2 higher in Nebraska at $242 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $240-$242.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.43 lower Friday afternoon at $263.75/cwt. Select was $1.16 lower at $231.90/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 667,000 head was 1,000 head fewer than the previous week but 15,000 head more than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 27.71 million head was 452,00 head more (+1.6%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 23.69 billion lbs. was 338.8 million lbs. more (+1.5%).

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, presumably lifted in part by the monthly Employment Situation Summary. While strong, unemployment crept slightly higher, leading some to think it would help the Fed be less aggressive on interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 401 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 50 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 132 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $3.53 to $4.44 higher through the front six contracts.

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September beef exports were lower year over year — the first monthly decline in 2022 — but remain on a record pace through the first three quarters of the year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

September beef exports totaled 115,487 metric tons (mt), valued at $890.3 million, down 7% from a year ago in both volume and value. For the first nine months of 2022, beef exports were still 4% above last year at 1.12 million mt. Export value reached $9.12 billion, up 20% and already achieving the second highest total for any calendar year, trailing only the 2021 record ($10.58 billion).

Despite China’s zero-COVID policies that result in travel restrictions and periodic lockdowns in metropolitan areas, September beef exports to China/Hong Kong were still above last year. Shipments also increased year-over-year to the ASEAN region and Caribbean, but declined to Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

While beef exports remain well-positioned to reach new heights in 2022, the September results reflected significant headwinds that have been building for some time.

“Demand for U.S. beef has been extremely resilient, but inflationary pressure on consumers and weakened currencies in key markets have definitely created a more challenging environment,” says Dan Halstrom, U.S. Meat Export Federation president and CEO. “Exports also continue to face logistical challenges, lockdowns in China and mounting inventories in some destinations. Still, it’s hard to view September sales of nearly $900 million as a disappointment, when this would have been an all-time record just 18 months ago. That really drives home what a remarkable year this has been for U.S. beef exports.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live sales were steady in the Southern Plains at $150/cwt. and steady with the prior week in the western Corn Belt at $152-$153. Dressed prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $240.

Although too few to trend, there were some dressed trades $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $242-$243. Live prices there last week were $152-$153.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.71 higher Thursday afternoon at $265.18/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $233.06/cwt.

Cattle futures wobbled Thursday as traders appeared to take a wait-and-see breather after the previous session’s gains.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 59¢ lower, except for 12¢ higher in the back contract.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from an average of 12¢ lower to an average of 22¢ higher.

Corn futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower through Jly ‘23 and then narrowly mixed.

Soybean futures closed mostly 12¢ to 17¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower again Thursday with follow-through pressure from the Fed’s bearish interest rate outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 146 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 39 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 181 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.20 to $1.83 lower through the front six contracts.

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Higher expected sale prices and moderating cost of gain are expected to exceed the higher cost of feeder cattle, leading to positive cattle feeding returns from now through June, according to the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns from Kansas State University (K-State).

Projected returns for steers range from $42.68 per head in June 2023 to $148.06 in December this year. Feeding cost of gain ranges from $120.37/cwt. in May to $135.49 in October.

Projected returns for heifers range from $31.50 per head in June to $148.56 in May. Feeding cost of gain ranges from $129.12/cwt. in May to $142.90 in October.

Glynn Tonsor, K-State agricultural economist who prepares the monthly feedlot outlook emphasizes the projection process reflects a cash basis with no price risk management.