WLI

Russia’s announcement over the weekend that it is suspending its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) propelled grain futures significantly higher Monday. The BSGI, brokered by the United Nations earlier this year, enabled resumption of Ukraine grain exports via the Black Sea as Russia’s war on Ukraine continued.

Corn futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ higher through Jly ‘23 and then mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 39¢ to 53¢ higher.

As logic would suggest, Feeder Cattle futures wilted in the face of the spike up in grain futures, closing an average of 81¢ lower (25¢ lower to $1.00 lower), except for an average of 9¢ higher in the back three contracts.

Added uncertainty came with the fact that there were no reports from the Agricultural Marketing Service during trading hours Monday, presume Bly due to technical difficulties.

Last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values muted losses in Live Cattle futures, which closed an average of 27¢ lower, except for $3.60 lower in expiring Oct.

Last week, negotiated cash fed cattle prices were $2 higher on a live basis in the Southern Plains at $150/cwt.; they were $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $152-$153 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $151-$153. Dressed prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $240 and $4-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $240.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Monday with likely month-end position squaring as investors await the Fed’s next interest rate move later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 128 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 114 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 74¢ to $1.37 lower through the front six contracts.

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“Market fundamentals are generally positive for cattle markets going forward,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Improved futures prices, stronger boxed beef and fed cattle prices are all supportive for feeder cattle markets. Cattle slaughter is still running large but should taper off toward the end of the year. Unless unexpected external market pressure develops, cattle prices are expected to finish the year strong and the highest prices of the year may be recorded before the end of the year.”

Peel offers Oklahoma auction volume as an example of how drought altered cattle marketing. Across 14 weeks from mid-July to mid-October he notes the volume of feeder cattle flowing through auction markets in the state was 19.7% more year over year. The last two weeks, feeder auction volume was 6.1% less than the same period last year.

“Feeder cattle prices at Oklahoma auctions increased counter-seasonally through the summer to August peaks, nearly equal to the spring seasonal peaks before dropping through September into early October,” Peel says. “A sharp decrease in Feeder futures contract prices over this period was the major factor in the cash market decrease. Since mid-October, Feeder futures prices and cash auction prices have moved higher.”

Peel offers insights to the market impacts of recent rains here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices continued to gain last week amid aggressive cattle slaughter, resilient beef demand, and narrowing supplies.

For the week, live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $150/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $152-$153 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $151-$153. Dressed prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $240 and $4-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $240.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 77¢ higher Friday afternoon at $263.26/cwt. Select was $2.58 higher at $234.49/cwt.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed to marginally lower Friday with week-end positioning and traders apparently reluctant to advance prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from an average of 12¢ lower to an average of 11¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ lower (22¢ lower at the back to $1.02 lower in nearly-spent spot Oct).

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 668,000 head was 5,000 head less than the previous week and on par with the same week last year. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 28.04 million head was 436,000 head more (+1.6%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date beef production of 23.13 billion lbs. was 320.9 million lbs. more (+1.4%).

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rallied higher Friday with more data suggesting inflation is easing. Excluding food and energy, the Personal Consumption Index (PCE) increased 0.5% month over month and 5.1% year over year, which was in line with expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 828 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 93 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 309 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.18 to $1.26 lower higher through the front six contracts.

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First the pandemic and then the onslaught of consumer price inflation continue to disrupt what were once fairly predictable consumer eating behaviors according to the latest Eating Patterns in America from the NPD Group (NPD).

“The rate of change in U.S. consumers’ eating behaviors continues at a dizzying pace,” says David Portalatin, NPD food industry advisor and author of Eating Patterns in America. “Anyone hoping to return to normal must understand that there is no normal, only an ongoing evolution as we respond to new realities.”

Portalatin points to six macro themes currently shaping the new realities of food and beverage consumption behaviors: economic transition, inflation, income bifurcation, sticky behaviors, total wellness, and the return to convenience. 

Economic transition: Consumer spending in 2020 and 2021 experienced a stimulus-fueled surge that extended into the first quarter of 2022. But, the spending spree ended by the second quarter when stimulus money dried up, and inflation and economic uncertainty took hold. The positive and negative disruptions of the past few years may mean year-over-year economic metrics aren’t as straightforward as they’d ordinarily be in explaining the consumer’s health.

Inflation: Consumers are unlikely to reduce food and beverage consumption in the face of inflationary pressure. But, they will find ways to manage and allocate their food dollars. While inflation is more moderate for food away from home than food at home, the typical restaurant meal costs 3.4 times more than in-home food sourced from retail. To offset rising food costs, consumers are bargain-hunting when grocery shopping, eating more meals at home, and cutting back on restaurant visits.

Income bifurcation: One of the key themes currently shaping the food and beverage landscape is the difference in behaviors among income groups. Trends of upper- and lower-income consumers are starkly divergent. In the food and beverage industry, income bifurcation has profound implications for the total share of stomach trends, retailer and restaurant choice, dealing and promotions, and brands vs. private labels.

Sticky behaviors: Many eating behaviors adopted during the pandemic reflect a rapid acceleration of behaviors established long before the pandemic, like consumers eating most meals at home. Food and beverage behaviors may continue to “normalize,” but the consumer landscape has been transformed as consumers created new capacities and restaurant operators expanded capabilities to serve a more home-centric consumer.

Total wellness: Due to the pandemic, consumers are finding a balance between foods that contribute to physical wellbeing and those that serve more emotional needs. They’re increasingly in tune with the functional attributes of various foods and beverages that can contribute to both sides of this equation.

Return to convenience: Back to school and work create time pressures for home cooks and foodservice customers. And while home-centricity remains more prevalent, the return of mobility reintroduced the need for speed and convenience. For some occasions, this means a trip to a quick service restaurant, but for others, we want to retain our new at-home capacity, just with some shortcuts or time-saving techniques.

“America’s eating patterns are shifting to adjust to new realities, and food manufacturers, foodservice operators, and retailers will need to adjust their offerings and services accordingly,” Portalatin says. “Although the one constant is change, there is a constant to count on, the U.S. consumer will always need to eat, and then it’s a matter of figuring out what, how, when, and where.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $150/cwt.

Although too few to trend, there were some early live sales at $152 in Nebraska and $151-$152 in the western Corn Belt; early dressed sales at $240 in Nebraska and $236 in the western Corn Belt.

Last week, live sales were $150-$152 in Nebraska and $150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $236 in Nebraska and $232-236 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 higher Thursday afternoon at $262.49/cwt. Select was $3.31 higher at $231.91/cwt.

Cattle futures softened Thursday despite higher wholesale beef values and early stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ lower (5¢ to 17¢ lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 23¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower, except for fractionally higher in the front contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Thursday, with tech stocks pressuring the NADAQ and S&P 500. On the other hand, higher domestic economic growth than expected in the third quarter buoyed the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Third-quarter GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.6%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Those analysts say, “The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a decrease in housing investment.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 194 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 178 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 86¢ to $1.17 higher through the front six contracts.

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Although domestic economic growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter, the global economic outlook continues to weaken, according to the latest quarterly World Economic Outlook (WEO) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“More than a third of the global economy will contract this year or next, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to stall,” say WEO authors. “In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession.”

High inflation and central banks’ monetary tightening to contain it remain a primary headwind. COVID and the Russian war on Ukraine are others.

The IMF shaved 0.2% from its outlook for 2023 global economic growth, compared to the July projection. IMF forecasts global GDP to be 3.2% this year and to be 2.7% next year.

“This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and reflects significant slowdowns for the largest economies: a U.S. GDP contraction in the first half of 2022, a euro area contraction in the second half of 2022, and prolonged COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in China with a growing property sector crisis,” say IMF analysts.

Projections peg U.S. economic growth at 1.6% this year and 1.0% next year.

IMF analysts say risks to their latest outlook remain unusually large and to the downside.

After retrenching in the previous session, Cattle futures mostly gained Wednesday with expectations of higher cash prices again this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 81¢ higher, except for 17¢ lower in waning spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 28¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 16¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $148/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $150-$152 in Nebraska and $150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $236 in Nebraska and $232-$236 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 57¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $260.86/cwt. Select was $1.25 higher at $228.60/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, weighed down by big tech stocks with lower quarterly earnings than expected from the likes of Microsoft and Alphabet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 28 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 228 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.71 to $2.59 higher through the front six contracts.

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Economic conditions continue to deteriorate in rural areas a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, as measured by the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI).

The October RMI declined from 46.3 a month earlier to 44.2. It was the sixth decline in the past seven months, sinking below growth neutral for a fifth consecutive month. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession. Approximately, three of four bankers expect a recession to begin in 2023,” says Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The region’s farmland price index for October declined to 58.0 from September’s 61.1 but was above growth neutral for the 25th straight month.

The slowing economy, strong energy prices, higher borrowing costs and elevated agriculture input costs pushed the business confidence index down to 30.8 from 40.7 in September. “This is the lowest reading for the confidence index since May 2020,” said Goss.

Recent momentum in Cattle futures stalled Tuesday amid higher Corn futures, likely profit taking and apparently waiting to see if this week’s cash fed cattle trade supports another step higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.60 lower, except for 92¢ higher in waning spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ lower, except for 7¢ higher in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $148/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $150-$152 in Nebraska and $150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $236 in Nebraska and $232-$236 in the western Corn Belt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday. Support included lower bond yield rates and chatter that the Fed may see enough weakness in the economy to make future interest rate hikes less aggressive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 246 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 74¢ to 89¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Total pounds of beef in freezers Sept. 30 were 2% more than the previous month, 19% more than the same time last year and record large for the date, according to the latest USDA Cold Storage report. 

Frozen pork supplies were slightly less than the previous month but 14% more than the previous year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 1% from the previous month and up 17% from last year.

Total frozen poultry supplies were up slightly from the previous month and up 10% from a year ago.