WLI

Cattle futures continued to climb Monday on higher cash fed cattle prices, stronger wholesale beef values and Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 higher (40¢ to $1.57 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.18 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $148/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $150-$152 in Nebraska and $150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $236 in Nebraska and $232-$236 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $4.21 higher Monday afternoon at $257.92/cwt. Select was $1.25 higher at $225.61/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 14¢ to 23¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gain Monday. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 417 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 44 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 92 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 5¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Through the first week of October, female beef cattle slaughter was approaching 750,000 head more than last year, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). Beef cow slaughter was 336,000 head more and heifer slaughter was up 364,000 head.

“Given the pace of current slaughter, a reasonable estimate would conclude U.S. female slaughter will be over 800,000 head by the end of the year,” LMIC analysts say, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Using a simple regression analysis of data back to 1987, that would imply a Jan. 1 beef cow herd number down 4.8%, greater than the largest decline seen in the 2011-2015 time period. The difference has been the larger number of heifers moving through slaughter channels. It would suggest an unprecedented proportion of female slaughter in the last several decades relative to herd inventory.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $3 higher in the Southern Plains at $148/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $151-$152 and $2-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $150-$152. Dressed prices were $4 higher at $236.

Stronger cash prices and higher wholesale beef prices helped Cattle futures gain Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 79¢ higher, except for 30¢ lower in spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 54¢ higher

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 9¢ higher Friday afternoon at $253.71/cwt. Select was $2.28 higher at $224.36/cwt.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 673,000 head was 13,000 head more than the previous week. Total year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 27.37 million head was 433,000 head more (+1.6%) than the same period last year. Total year-to-date beef production of 22.56 billion lbs. was 3.2 million lbs. more (+1.4%).

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through Aug ’23 and then mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Friday led by bank stocks and perhaps some thoughts that peak inflation is near. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 748 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 86 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 244 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 54¢ to 66¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest Cattle on Feed report — feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity — as at least neutral.

Placements in September of 2.08 million head were 3.8% less than the previous year. In terms of placement weights, 37% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 44% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 19% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in September of 1.86 million head were 4.0% more year over year.

Cattle on Feed Oct. 1 of 11.45 million head were 1.0% less than the previous year.

Snug supplies and demand-based aggressive slaughter helped negotiated cash fed cattle prices pull ahead with more gusto this week.

Live prices were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $148/cwt. on moderate trade and light to moderate demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at mostly $152 on moderate demand and trade. Dressed prices in Nebraska were $4 higher at $236.

There were some live sales in the western Corn Belt at $150 and $236 in the beef, but too few to trend. Live prices there Wednesday were $2 higher at $150. Dressed prices last week were $230-$232.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 23¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $253.62/cwt. Select was 11¢ lower at $222.08/cwt.

Cattle futures closed mixed, though, between resurgent Corn futures but stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 79¢ lower (52¢ to $1.02 lower), except for 35¢ higher in spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 22¢ lower in four contracts to an average 34¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 19¢ higher through Jly ‘23.and then mostly 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday amid mixed quarterly corporate earnings and rising bond yields. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 1¢ to 49¢ lower through the front six contracts, except for 43¢ higher in spot Nov.

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Beef production in September was record large for the month at 2.39 billion lbs., according to the monthly Livestock Slaughter report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Year-over-year cattle slaughter was 4% more at 2.9 million head.

Commercial red meat production totaled 4.67 billion lbs. in September, up 2% from the same time last year.

Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday, buoyed by stronger wholesale beef prices, upward cash momentum and weaker Corn futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 89¢ higher (25¢ to $1.65 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.20 higher (88¢ to $1.83 higher).

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.61 higher Wednesday afternoon at $253.39/cwt. Select was 91¢ higher at $222.19/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from very limited on moderate demand to inactive on light to moderate demand through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were some early live sales at $147/cwt. in the Southern Plains and at $150 in the western Corn Belt

Last week, live prices were $145/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $148 in Nebraska and the Western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $232 in Nebraska and $230-$232 in the western Corn Belt.

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Major U.S. financial indices paused the recent rally Wednesday as the U.S. 10-year treasury note traded at its highest level in 14 years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 91 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.60 to $2.73 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised estimated U.S. beef exports for next year — compared to the previous month’s forecast — based on strong Asian demand.

“Demand for U.S. beef in East and Southeast Asia has been especially strong this year,” explains ERS analysts in the monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. The increase in exports to the top 10 Asian markets has accounted for 85% of the year-over-year increase in exports through August. The increase in exports to China alone has accounted for 76% of the overall increase and was more than enough to offset the decrease in exports to Hong Kong and Japan. Exports to South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines have also shown significant increases.”

ERS increased the third-quarter U.S. beef export forecast 10 million lbs. to 925 million based on August trade data showing stronger-than-expected shipments to China. The fourth-quarter projection was unchanged. Based on expected global demand for next year, the forecast for first-quarter 2023 was raised 50 million lbs. to 740 million and the second-quarter forecast was raised 15 million lbs. to 775 million. The annual forecast was raised to 3.070 billion lbs.

Stronger cash fed cattle prices last week, the prospect for further gains this week and recently higher wholesale beef prices helped Cattle futures extend gains Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.73 higher, except for 7¢ higher in spot Oct.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 50¢ higher (15¢ to 60¢ higher), except for unchanged in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains and Nebraska through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. In the Western Corn Belt, trade was limited on light demand.

Last week, live prices were $145/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $148 in Nebraska and the Western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $232 in Nebraska and $230-$232 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.64 higher Tuesday afternoon at $250.78/cwt. Select was $1.67 higher at $221.28/cwt.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 9¢ to 13¢ lower through Jly ’23 and then mostly 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Tuesday with positive quarterly corporate earnings reports, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 42 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 98 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.47 to $2.64 lower through the front six contracts.

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Despite firm feedlot demand expected for the remainder of this year, between current price data and higher projected feed prices than in last month’s forecast, USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered the fourth-quarter price projection for feeder steers $4 to $173/cwt. with an annual average price of $164.93. That’s basis 750-800 lbs. steers selling at Oklahoma City.

“Based on a weaker outlook than last month for winter grazing on small grains, expected feeder calf placements were raised for the remainder of 2022, tempering expectations for supplies of stocker cattle entering feedlots in early 2023,” ERS analysts say, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “The price projection in first-quarter 2023 is raised $3 to $175. However, feed prices are forecast to be slightly higher for the 2022-23 crop year and expected feeder calf price increases in the second half of the year were moderated.”

ERS projects feeder steer prices next year at $190 in the second quarter, $214 in the third quarter with an annual average price of $200.75.