WLI

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 98¢ higher on Friday with continued cash strength and stabilizing Corn futures. Week to week, though, they were an average of $3.37 lower, pressured by surging Corn futures, which were an average of 52’1¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher on Friday, supported by firmer wholesale beef values.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.47 higher Friday afternoon at $269.24/cwt. Select was $1.44 higher at $242.25/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light to moderate demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few live sales in the western Corn Belt at $144-$145/cwt., but too few to trend.

For the week, live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $135/cwt., $1.00-$5.50 lower in Nebraska at $139.00-$143.50 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $141-$145. Dressed prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $225 and $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $224-$225.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the week of 669,000 head was 4,000 head more than the previous week and 23,000 head more than the same week last year. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 19.48 million head was 234,000 head more (+1.2%) than the previous year. Estimated total year-to-date beef production of 16.07 billion lbs. was 169.5 million lbs. more (+1.1%) than a year earlier.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, led by tech and energy stocks, and supported by a slight improvement in the closely watched University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 315 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 57 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 228 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed $1.89 to $2.20 higher through the through the front six contracts.

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The CME Feeder Cattle Index closed $1.30 higher week to week on Thursday at $172.31/cwt. Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes in his weekly market comments the Feeder Cattle Index increased $19/cwt. between June 1 and July 27, while spot Feeder Cattle futures increased about $8.

“The cash feeder cattle market and the Feeder Cattle futures are jockeying for position in an attempt to determine where prices should be,” Griffith says. “The basis, or the difference between cash prices and futures prices, has narrowed considerably as the market is moving into August. This is to be expected as cash prices and futures prices should converge. Part of the narrowing of basis has been from futures declining slightly, but most of the narrowing of the basis has come from higher cash prices. Prices will continue to converge through August. It is unknown if it will be through higher cash prices or lower futures prices. Producers should hope for the former.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.55 lower Thursday beneath the weight of higher Corn futures, which were 14¢ to 16¢ higher through new-crop contracts and then mostly 9¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 27¢ to 31¢ higher — both supported by the hotter, drier weather forecast in the Corn Belt.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 37¢ lower to an average of 15¢ higher, supported by positive weekly exports but pressured from lower cash prices and weaker wholesale beef values.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far, this week, live prices are $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $135/cwt., $1.00-$5.50 lower in Nebraska at $138 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $141-$145. Dressed prices are $2 lower in Nebraska at $225 and $3-$7 lower in the western Corn Belt at $224-$225.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 22¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $267.77/cwt. Select was $1.00 lower at $240.81/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 25,300 metric tons were 6% more than the previous week and 66% more than the prior four-week average, according to the U.S. Export Sales report for the week ending July 21. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan and Mexico.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday, apparently driven by strong quarterly earnings reports from Apple and Amazon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 332 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 48 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 130 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed 43¢ to 84¢ lower through the through the front six contracts.

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U.S. consumers reduced their restaurant visits in the second quarter of 2022, amid rising inflation and menu prices, according to The NPD Group (NPD).

Physical and online restaurant traffic declined 2% year over year in the second quarter and was 6% below the pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of 2019. Consumer restaurant spending for the quarter, which reflects higher costs in contrast to increased visits, was 2% higher year over year and 3% more than the same quarter in 2019.

“We see three ways consumers respond to higher menu prices. They trade down to lower-priced items, cut back on the number of items ordered, or reduce restaurant visits altogether,” says David Portalatin, NPD Food Industry Advisor. “Operators and manufacturers can win in this environment by differentiating value, understanding that value doesn’t always translate to the lowest price. Quality and value become a critical differentiator when consumers spend on a restaurant meal during these challenging times.”

Visits to quick service restaurants (QSRs), represented 82% of total restaurant traffic in the second quarter. They were 2% less year over year and 3% less than the pre-pandemic level for the same period in 2019. QSR fast casual restaurant traffic was 1% less than a year ago but was 8% more than same quarter in 2019.

Full service restaurant (FSR) visits, represented 18% of restaurant visits in the second quarter. They were 3% less than a year earlier and 20% less than the second quarter of 2019.

Feeder Cattle futures rose an average of $1.08 Wednesday, bolstered by strong cash demand.

Live Cattle futures edged an average of 13¢ higher, except for an average of 6¢ lower in the front two contracts, despite the weaker cash outlook for the week and wobbly beef prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live prices were $1.00-$5.50 lower at $138/cwt. Dressed prices were $2 lower at $225.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on very light demand.

Prices in the Southern Plains were $1 lower on Tuesday at $135.

In the western Corn Belt last week, prices were $141-$145 on a live basis and $227-$232 in the beef.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.12 lower Wednesday afternoon at $267.99/cwt. Select was $2.07 lower at $241.81/cwt.

Higher oil prices helped lift Soybean futures mostly 15¢ to 26¢ higher while Corn futures were up mostly 3¢.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, after the Fed raised lending rates by another 75 basis points. Apparently, a wide swath of investors believe that inflation can be controlled while avoiding a recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 436 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 102 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 469 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed $2.28 to $2.50 higher through the front six contracts.

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Inflation is now the key risk to meat and poultry consumption, as the impact of COVID-19 on consumer food spending is diminishing, according to The Quarterly from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. Retail meat and poultry prices were 18% higher in May compared to 2021 and both spot market supplies and freezer inventories are below pre-pandemic levels. The combination of tight supplies and steady demand kept meat prices 20% higher than the five-year average for the March-May period, say CoBank analysts.

Among the report highlights:

• Effects from the pandemic and Ukraine war continue to reverberate through the global economy. Food and energy prices remain high, though prices for underlying commodities have lost upward momentum as economic fears rise.
• After more than two years, Covid-related supply chain complications are finally easing and various metrics indicate improvements to supply chain performance both domestically and globally. However, those improvements have been modest and agricultural supply chains in particular remain broadly mired in dysfunction.

“Warehouse and inventory costs are still rising at near-peak levels, and transportation costs are rising at a much higher rate than pre-pandemic,” says Dan Kowalski, vice president of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “Grain rail car availability and prices were at multi-year lows and highs, respectively, in the second quarter. Although as consumer purchases of goods continues to soften, supply chains will slowly recover.”

• Declining cattle supplies are expected to converge with excess processing capacity over the next 12-18 months, which should contribute to more favorable conditions for producers.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.79 lower Tuesday, pressured by Corn futures that were 15¢ to 17¢ higher through new-crop contracts as traders added weather premium based on the latest crop conditions, along with further uncertainty regarding Ukrainian exports.

Soybean futures closed 31¢ to 59¢ higher through Jly ‘23 and then mostly 20¢ to 22¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 61¢ lower, uninspired by early cash direction.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Texas Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were a few live trades $1 lower at $135/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, live prices were $136 in Kansas, $139.00-$143.50 in Nebraska and $141-$145 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $227-$232.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.00 higher Tuesday afternoon at $269.11/cwt. Select was $1.12 lower at $243.88/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, with much of the pressure attributed to Walmart cutting its profit forecast based on food inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 228 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 45 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed 78¢ to $1.72 lower through the front six contracts.

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The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) fell for the fourth straight month — from 49.8 in June to 46.0 in July — sinking below growth neutral for a second consecutive month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Supply chain disruptions from transportation bottlenecks and labor shortages continue to constrain growth. Farmers and bankers are bracing for escalating interest rates — both long-term and short-term,” says Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Bankers were asked to identify the greatest risk for ranchers and farmers over the next 12 months. These were the leading responses: rising input prices (53.9%), falling grain and livestock prices (34.6%) and drought (11.5%).

“It’s the combination of higher input costs and a potential fall in commodity prices that are the biggest risks to farmers. Not just one or the other,” says James Brown, CEO of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, IA.

Even with significant input price increases this year, bankers expect a half percentage point decline in farm loan delinquencies over the next 12 months.

Among other highlights:

The region’s farmland price index for July declined to 66.0 from 76.8 in June, marking the 22nd straight month that the index was above growth neutral.

On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to advance by 2.1% over the next 12 months.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.76 lower Monday, pressured by higher Corn futures, bearish feedlot placements in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report and likely profit taking.

Corn futures reversed direction and closed 15¢ to 19¢ higher through new-crop contracts after Russia attacked one of Ukraine’s deep seaports before the ink dried on the agreement signed Friday which was supposed to enable resumption of Ukraine grain exports in the Black Sea region. Soybean futures closed mostly 28¢ to 30¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 22¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 25¢ higher, supported by stronger wholesale beef prices.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 99¢ higher Monday afternoon at $268.11/cwt. Select was $2.50 higher at $245.00/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $136 in the Southern Plains, $139.00-$143.50 in Nebraska and $142-$144 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $227 in Nebraska and $227-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Monday, as investors awaited earnings reports from some corporate giants later this week, as well as key economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 51 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed $1.94 to $2.00 higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle producers are de-stocking at a rapid pace in the Southern Plains as pasture conditions deteriorate, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

For instance, in Oklahoma, where pasture and range rated poor or very poor jumped from 18% in early July to 34% by mid-month, Peel explains the volume of feeder cattle trading at auction increased 24% year over year the last two weeks.

“Prices for Oklahoma steers dropped an average of 3.5% this past week with prices for 400-500 lb. steers down 7.9%,” Peel says. “Feeder heifer prices were down an average of 2.5% with prices for 400-500 lb. heifers down 6.3%. The auction volume of cull cows and bulls jumped nearly 124% over last year in the past two weeks. Prices for average dressing Boning cows decreased by nearly 22% from $85.22/cwt. in early July to $66.62 this past week. Anecdotal reports indicate that auctions in the Southern Plains and regional cow slaughter plants are being overwhelmed with volumes of cattle sales.”

Peel notes last week’s semiannual USDA Cattle report confirmed accelerated beef cow herd liquidation due to the cumulative effects of drought the past two years.

As mentioned in Cattle Current, there were 30.35 million beef cows in the national inventory July 1, which was 750,000 fewer (-2.4%) than the same time last year.

The 4.15 million beef heifers retained as replacements were 150,000 fewer (-3.5%) than a year earlier.

The calculated number of calves outside feedlots July 1 of 35.7 million head was 1 million head fewer (-2.7%) than the same time last year.

Total cattle and calves of 98.8 million head were 2 million fewer (-2.0%) year over year.

You can find more market insight from Peel here.