WLI

Cattle futures took a step higher Friday, apparently buoyed by bullish expectations for the USDA reports that came out later that day (see below).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.38 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.42 higher (85¢ higher at the back to $2.02 higher toward the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $136/cwt. and $1.00 to $1.50 lower at $139.00-$143.50 in Nebraska and $142-$144 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices in Nebraska were $3 lower at $227.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 64¢ lower Friday afternoon at $267.12/cwt. Select was $1.97 higher at $242.50/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 665,000 head was 9,000 head fewer than the previous week, but 10,000 head more than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 18.8 million head was 212,000 more (+1.1%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.5 billion lbs. was 152.6 million lbs. more (+1.0%).

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower, apparently pressured by favorable weather and the agreement between Ukraine and Russia which is supposed to enable resumption of Ukraine grain exports in the Black Sea region.

Soybean futures closed mostly 12¢ to 16¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, led by tech stocks, but closed higher week to week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 137 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 225 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed 94¢ to $1.65 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s semiannual Cattle report published Friday provided some clarity to how much the nation’s beef cow herd is contracting, and how fast.

There were 30.35 million beef cows in the national inventory July 1, which was 750,000 fewer (-2.4%) than the same time last year.

There were 4.15 million beef heifers retained as replacements, which was 150,000 fewer (-3.5%) than a year earlier.

Dairy cows numbered 9.45 million head, which was 50,000 head fewer (-0.5%)

Total cattle and calves of 98.8 million head were 2 million fewer (-2.0%) year over year.

The calculated number of calves outside feedlots July 1 of 35.7 million head was 1 million head fewer (-2.7%) than the same time last year.

The 2022 calf crop is projected to be 34.6 million head, which would be 485,400 head fewer (-1.4%).

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Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish, due to more placements than expected.

Cattle feeders placed 1.63 million head on feed in June (feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity). That was 40,000 head fewer (-2.4%) than the same time last year but about 3% more than analysts expected ahead of the report.

In terms of placements weights, 39% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 45% weighing 700-799 lbs. and 16% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Cattle feeders marketed 2.06 million head in June, which was 40,000 head more (+2.0%) year over year, in line with expectations.

There were 11.34 million head of cattle on feed July 1, which was 45,000 head more (+0.4%) than the same time last year.

According to the semiannual Cattle report, cattle on feed in feedlots with more than 1,000 head capacity accounted for 84.6% of the cattle on feed July 1.

Corn futures dredged 15¢ to 16¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then mostly 12¢ to 13¢ lower, pressured by favorable weather and reports suggesting Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN would sign an agreement Friday that would enable resumption of Ukraine Black Sea grain exports.

Soybean futures closed mostly 24¢ to 30¢ lower, also pressured by lower Crude Oil.

Feeder Cattle futures gained an average of 49¢ with the lower Corn futures, although reluctantly.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 41¢ lower, except for 20¢ higher in the back contract, on the week’s lower cash tone and perhaps with some deference to Friday’s semiannual Cattle report and monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light trade through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some live trades in Kansas at $136/cwt. and a few dressed sales in the western Corn Belt at $232.

In established trade for the week, live prices are $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $136 and $1.00-$1.50 lower in Nebraska at $139.00-$143.50, where dressed prices are $3 lower at $227.

Last week, live prices were $137 in Kansas and $143.50-$145.00 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed prices were $228-$230.

Wholesale beef values resumed the seasonal decline. Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.77 lower Thursday afternoon at $267.76/cwt. Select was $1.72 lower at $240.53/cwt.

U.S. net beef export sales of 23,800 metric tons for the week of July 14 were up noticeably from the previous week and were 97% more than the prior four-week average, according to the weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, China, Mexico and Hong Kong.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains Thursday, buoyed by tech stocks and despite a negative labor report. Initial weekly unemployment insurance claims for the week ending July 16 were 7,000 more than the previous week at 251,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 162 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 39 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 161 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $2.11 to $3.53 lower through the front six contracts. 

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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce (USCC) agrees with those in the cattle business who oppose the Cattle Price Discovery and Transparency Act circulating in Congress, which would mandate minimum regional cash fed cattle trade.

“…the cattle price bill would displace free market fundamentals with government-controlled pricing. In a nutshell, the bill would require cattle feeders to sell cattle to packers, and packers to buy from feeders a mandatory minimum of fed cattle on a cash, spot market. As a result, the bill would reduce the ability of all levels of the supply chain to negotiate freely through formula and contract sales, also known as alternative marketing arrangements—a system that has helped to increase consumer demand and improve beef quality by effectively transmitting market signals about consumers’ preferences to producers,” says Sean Heather, USCC senior vice president of international regulatory affairs and antitrust, in a recent blog.

“In other words, the bill would replace a market structure that has evolved naturally over time with one created and managed by bureaucrats in Washington,” Heather continued. “When has that ever been a good idea? Instead, Congress should let these post-COVID markets adjust naturally. Indeed, fed cattle prices reached a seven-year high earlier this year, benefitting suppliers up and down the chain, and these price signals ultimately will work to expand production and keep prices in check for consumers.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were $1-$3 lower in Nebraska Wednesday at $139-$142/cwt. Dressed prices were $3 lower at $227. That was on slow trade and light demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Elsewhere, trade was limited on light demand with too few transactions to trend.

Live sales were $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday at $136.

Last week, live sales were $137 in Kansas and $143.50-$145.00 in the western Corn Belt, where dressed prices were $228-$230.

Despite the softer cash tone, recently firmer wholesale beef values helped Live Cattle close narrowly mixed, from 32¢ lower to 25¢ higher.

However, Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.04 lower Wednesday afternoon at $270.53/cwt. Select was $1.48 lower at $242.25/cwt.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ lower with likely profit taking and retrenching ahead of Friday’s semiannual Cattle report and the monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Favorable weather pressured Corn and Soybean futures Wednesday.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower through new-crop contracts and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 22¢ to 25¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, maintaining steep gains from the previous session and buoyed by mostly positive quarterly corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 184 points.

WTI Crude Oil futures on the CME closed mixed through the front six contracts, from 18¢ higher in Dec to $1.96 lower in spot Aug. 

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More calves headed to market earlier will change the complexion of available supplies in the Southern Plains this fall, as producers respond to drought and dwindling supplies of high-priced feed.

For instance, drought continues to encompass virtually the entire state of Texas — much of it extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) — according to the July 12 U.S. Drought Monitor. Sale barns across Texas reported higher sale volumes over the last few months, including historically wetter parts of the state, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension.

Mark Welch, AgriLife Extension grain economist says feed-use numbers remain high for all livestock this year, but cattle producers around the state are experiencing below-average hay and grazing capacity. 

“The question is how long that can continue before cattle producers work the numbers or run out of grazing and supplemental feed substitutes they can use to efficiently feed grain?” Welch wonders. “Cash prices for feed-grade grain in Texas are still at a premium. We’re still living on supplies, and harvests in southern parts of the state are trickling in, but yields are below average.”

Of course, extreme heat in the Corn Belt has folks concerned about overall U.S. corn production this year.

Welch notes USDA’s recent corn harvest-area adjustment based on the June Acreage report, while holding expected yield steady at 177 bu./acre.

“Further down the road is more uncertain,” Welch says. “We need every bushel and every acre. The umbrella over all the markets is the economic slowdown and what that could do to demand on everything from corn to crude oil and cattle. That is an overarching concern.”

Approximately 56% of the nation’s cattle were in drought areas July 12, according to USDA’s Ag in Drought report.

Feeder Cattle futures rallied an average of $2.13 higher Tuesday, propelled by lower Corn futures and ongoing cash demand strength.

Corn futures closed 13¢ to 15¢ lower through new-crop contracts on weather pressure and then mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 17¢ to 22¢ lower through Jly ‘23 and then mostly 9¢ to 12¢ lower.

Positive outside markets, Feeder Cattle and higher wholesale beef values helped pull Live Cattle futures an average of 48¢ higher.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.02 higher Tuesday afternoon at $272.57/cwt. Select was $1.07 higher at $243.73/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle on Tuesday at $136/cwt. with moderate trade and light to moderate demand.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $137 in Kansas, $140-$145 in Nebraska and $143.50 to $145.00 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $230 in Nebraska and $228-$230 in the western Corn Belt.

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Major U.S. financial indices rallied Tuesday, with various analysts attributing the surge to investors betting the bottom is in or near.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 754 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 105 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 353 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 73¢ to $1.62 higher through the front six contracts. 

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) for the remainder of this year based on stronger than expected placements in May, current price data and tighter supplies than expected.

In the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, ERS forecast the average feeder steer price $2 higher for the third quarter at $168/cwt., $1 higher in the fourth quarter at $171 and $1 higher for the annual average price at $163. Likewise, the expected first-quarter price increased $1 to $169. Next year’s annual average price is $199.25.

As for fed steer prices, ERS analysts point out the five-area average price July 10 was $22 higher year over year at $144.35/cwt., supported by the faster slaughter pace, lighter carcass weights and strong beef prices.

The fed steer price was projected at $139/cwt. in the third quarter and at $141.30 for the annual average. Next year’s annual average price was forecast at $153.

“Conditions continue to elevate beef cow culling rates and placement of calves on feed at a faster than expected pace,” ERS analysts say. “Lower expected carcass weights in second-half 2022 are more than offset by higher expected fed cattle slaughter in the fourth quarter. This raised projected 2022 production slightly, however, lower weights were carried into first-quarter 2023, marginally reducing next year’s production.”

Soybean futures closed sharply higher Monday, boosted by a bounce in oil prices, carrying Corn along for the ride. Extreme heat in the short-term forecast added support.

Soybean futures closed 31¢ to 38¢ higher through Sep ‘23 and then mostly 26¢ to 27¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 6¢ higher.

Even so, Cattle futures firmed Monday, supported by stronger wholesale beef values.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.64 higher Monday afternoon at $270.55/cwt. Select was 87¢ higher at $242.66/cwt.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 42¢ higher (42¢ to $1.05 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 37¢ higher, except for an average of 18¢ lower in two nearby contracts.

There was no established negotiated cash fed cattle trade through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $137/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $140-$145 in Nebraska and $143.50-$145.00 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $228-$230.

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Major U.S. financial indices gave back some of the previous session’s gains on Monday, with mixed earnings reports and lingering concerns about inflation and economic growth.

Builder confidence plunged month to month in July as high inflation and increased interest rates stalled the housing market by dramatically slowing sales and buyer traffic. In a further sign of a weakening housing market, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its seventh straight monthly decline in July, falling 12 points to 55, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the lowest HMI reading since May 2020 and the largest single-month drop in the history of the HMI, except for the 42-point drop in April 2020.

“Production bottlenecks, rising home building costs and high inflation are causing many builders to halt construction because the cost of land, construction and financing exceeds the market value of the home,” says NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “In another sign of a softening market, 13% of builders in the HMI survey reported reducing home prices in the past month to bolster sales and/or limit cancellations.”

“Affordability is the greatest challenge facing the housing market,” explains NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Significant segments of the home buying population are priced out of the market. Policymakers must address supply-side issues to help builders produce more affordable housing.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 215 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 32 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 92 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $3.99 to $5.01 higher through the front six contracts, supported by snug supplies and indications that Saudi Arabia will not increase production.

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When USDA issues the mid-year cattle report this Friday, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, expects to see the beef cow inventory 2.5% to 3.0% less year over, and the smallest since 2015. In his weekly market comments, Peel points out beef cow slaughter was 14.6% more than 2021 through the first half of this year. Last year’s beef cow slaughter was 9% more year over year.

“Fed cattle slaughter was up 0.6% year over year in the first half of the year. However, fed steer slaughter was down 1.4% while fed heifer slaughter was up 3.8%. Heifer slaughter in the first half of the year was 52.1% of the January 1 inventory of other heifers. That is the highest rate of heifer slaughter in the first half of the year since 2004 and has averaged 48.3% in the past 15 years. Reduced beef heifer retention may lead to a decrease in the beef replacement heifer inventory of 2.5% or more,” Peel says.

So, it will take time to begin expanding the herd when drought eases.

“Cow culling can drop rather quickly if conditions improve but the availability of replacement heifers, especially bred heifers, may take a year or more,” Peel explains. “Heifer liquidation this year may mean that a limited supply of bred heifers is available next year.  If drought conditions improve this summer/fall, it may be possible to save some additional replacement heifer calves, but most will not calve until 2024. Even if we can and want to, the ability to rebuild the beef cow herd may be limited in 2023.  Hopefully, the upcoming report will provide some indication of what lies ahead.”