WLI

Cattle futures continued to soften Friday on the week’s lower cash fed cattle prices and ongoing recession fears.

Pressure could have also included uncertainty regarding the railroad strike set to begin Monday. Ultimately the strike was averted, at least for now, when President Biden signed an executive order Friday, creating a Presidential Emergency Board (PEB). The PEB has 30 days to recommend a resolution. The railroads and the unions then have another 30 days to negotiate a settlement.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.29 lower (57¢ to $2.55 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $137/cwt., steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $144-$145 and $2-$5 in the western Corn Belt at $145. Dressed prices were $2 lower in Nebraska at $230 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $228-$230.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.16 higher Friday afternoon at $268.91/cwt. Select was 12¢ lower at $241.79/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 677,000 head was 84,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week. Total estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 18.2 million head was 211,000 head more (+1.2%) than last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 15.0 billion lbs. was 153.5 million lbs. more (+1.0%).

Corn and Soybean futures closed narrowly mixed Friday as traders positioned following the massive selloff earlier in the week.

Corn futures closed mixed from fractionally lower to 2¢ higher through Sep ‘23, and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher through Sep ‘23 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending July 7 were a market-year low, down 17% from the previous week and 35% lower than the prior four-week average, according to the U.S. Export Sales report.

Increases were primarily for Japan, Mexico, Canada, China and Taiwan.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Friday, supported by major bank earnings and stronger consumer spending than expected.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June were 1% more than the previous month — slightly more than expected — and 8.4% more year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Also, though still near record lows, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose from 50.0 in June to 51.1 in July.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 658 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 72 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 201 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.51 to $1.81 higher through the front six contracts.

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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from U.S. agriculture declined from 2019 to 2020, according to data from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). Agricultural production accounted for 699 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2019 versus 670 million metric tons in 2020. Farming and ranching accounted for 11.2 % of U.S. GHG emissions in 2020 (see chart below).

“The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that in 2020 agriculture produced 5.6% (of GHG) as nitrous oxide. 4.2% as methane, 0.8% as on-farm carbon dioxide, and 0.6% emitted indirectly through the electricity that agriculture consumes,” according to ERS. “Emissions come from cropping activities that emit nitrous oxide, such as fertilizer application and manure storage and management, and enteric fermentation (a normal digestive process in animals), which produces methane.”

Industry (excluding agriculture) accounted for most of the nation’s GHG emissions in 2020 (30.3%) followed by transportation (27.3%).

Cattle futures ran out of steam Thursday amid higher Corn futures, softer cash fed cattle prices and continued volatility in outside markets. Perhaps the possibility of a U.S. railroad strike on Monday also played a role.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.29 lower (87¢ to $1.90 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.33 lower through the front four contracts, then an average of 79¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, live prices are steady in the Southern Plains at $137/cwt., steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $144-$145 and $2-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $145. Dressed prices are $2 lower in Nebraska at $230 and $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $228-$230.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ lower through Thursday afternoon at $267.75/cwt. Select was 65¢ lower at $241.91/cwt.

A hotter, drier forecast helped lift Corn futures mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher, except for 45¢ lower in spot Jly. However, declining oil prices weighed on Soybean futures, which were mostly 7¢ to 13¢ lower, except for 22¢ higher in spot Jly.

So far Friday, Cattle futures are trending lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices finished mixed on Thursday, with investors processing the unexpected inflation increase, and the real possibility of a more aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 143 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 4 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 52¢ to $1.43 lower through the front six contracts.

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Consumers returned to spending more money for food away from home than at home last year, according to the Weekly Spotlight from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

Annual food spending (real or inflation-adjusted) in the United States increased every year since 1997, except in 2008, 2009 and 2020, according to ERS. Sales for food at home (FAH) and food away from home (FAFH) increased from 1997 to 2019. During the same period, real FAH spending increased at a slower rate (43.5%) than for FAFH (73.9%). In 2020, during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, real total food expenditures declined 6.6% year over year.

“U.S. consumers’ food-spending patterns changed as efforts were made to limit the spread of COVID-19, which included stay-at-home orders,” ERS analysts explain. “FAFH spending decreased by 15.8% in 2020, while FAH spending increased by 3.9%. In 2021, real total food expenditures increased 12.2% from 2020. With increased household income during the economic recovery and relaxed safety measures around indoor dining and social distancing, FAFH spending increased by 21.1% in 2021 from the previous year and was the primary driver of the overall food spending increase.” FAH spending increased by 4% during the same period.

Strong cash demand continued to bolster Feeder Cattle futures, Wednesday, helping Live Cattle to continue edging higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.17 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 30¢ higher, except for unchanged in one contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate in the Southern Plains and Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $137/cwt. and steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $144-$145, where dressed prices were $2 lower at $230.

Trade was limited on light demand in the western Corn Belt with too few transactions to trend. Last week, live prices were $145-$150 on a live basis and $232 in the beef.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 46¢ lower through Wednesday afternoon at $268.05/cwt. Select was 91¢ lower at $241.26/cwt.

Grain markets firmed Wednesday as traders retrenched following recent steep losses.

Corn futures closed mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, pressured by higher inflation than the trade expected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It increased 1.3% month to month in June and was 9.1% higher over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment. That was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending Nov. 1981.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 208 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 17 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 46¢ to 97¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite sizzling hype the last few years surrounding plant-based alternatives to real meat, investor interest appears to be fizzling.

Consider that the share price for Beyond Meat^® — the publicly traded posterchild for alternative meat protein — was about $30.62 on Wednesday. A year earlier, it was approximately 76% more at $127.92.

According to the company’s financial results for the first quarter, net revenues increased 1.2% year over year to $109.5 million and the total volume of products sold increased 12.4%. But, net loss was $100.5 million compared to $27.3 million in the first quarter last year. That was before a couple of recent lawsuits filed against the company, alleging the company’s products contain significantly less protein than advertised and are not all-natural as claimed.

Elsewhere, in its first-quarter financials, Maple Leaf Foods — Canada’s largest prepared meats and poultry producer — told investors it no longer expects spectacular growth in its alternative meat category, but does anticipate slower, steadier growth.

According to data from the Good Food Institute and data company, SPINS, sales of plant-based meat alternatives in the United States last year total $1.4 billion, the same as a year earlier.

Perhaps the most logical conclusion is that minor consumer interest will continue for alternatives, but the gleam for investors has faded amid increasing competition within the category, alongside the lack of explosive sales growth and underwhelming profit potential. In other words, the alternative may not be going anywhere, but then again, it appears they really aren’t going to go anywhere.

Grain markets were the story once again on Tuesday, melting down beneath the weight of bearish outside markets, the climbing U.S. dollar, a more optimistic weather outlook and apparently little impact from the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-see below).

Corn futures closed 36¢ to 48¢ lower through Jly ‘23 and then mostly 15¢ to 19¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 48¢ to 63¢ lower through Sep ’23, then mostly 38¢ to 43¢ lower.

Sharply lower Corn futures and strong cash demand boosted Feeder Cattle an average of $3.48 higher, (from $2.98 higher to $4.70 higher).

That and firm wholesale Choice beef value helped Live Cattle edge an average of 41¢ higher, except for unchanged and down 25¢ in two contracts.

Last week, live prices were $137/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $144-$149 in Nebraska and $147-$150 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $232.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ higher through Tuesday afternoon at $268.51/cwt. Select was 83¢ lower at $242.17/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, pressured by falling Crude Oil futures and investor uneasiness over Wednesday’s consumer inflation report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 193 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 36 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 108 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $6.45 to $8.25 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service increased the forecast average fed steer price for this year $1.20 higher than the previous month at $141.30/cwt., in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). That was based on prices reported in the second quarter and expected packer demand strength in the third quarter. Prices are forecast to be $139 in the third quarter and $145 in the fourth quarter.

The annual expected average fed steer price for next year was unchanged at $153.

Among other WASDE highlights:

Corn

The 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook was for larger supplies and 70 million bu. more ending stocks. Corn production was forecast 45 million bu. higher based on increased planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. Yield was unchanged at 177.0 bu./acre. The season-average farm price received by producers was lowered 10¢ to $6.65.

Soybeans

Soybean production was projected 135 million bu. lower at 4.5 billion bu. on lower harvested area — 2.6 million acres less than expected the previous month, based on the June Acreage report. Ending stocks for 2022-23 were projected 50 million bu. less at 230 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price was forecast 30¢ lower at $14.40/bu. The soybean meal price was projected $10 lower at $390/short ton. The soybean oil price was forecast 1¢ lower at of 69¢/lb.

Wheat

Supplies of 2022-23 U.S. wheat were raised 44 million bu. to 1,781 million based on increased harvested area and higher yields. The projected season-average farm price for wheat was lowered 25¢/bu. to $10.50 on declines in futures and cash prices.

Strong cash demand for calves and feeder cattle, with snugger supplies looming, helped boost

Feeder Cattle futures an average of $2.09 higher Monday ($1.60 higher toward the back to $3.15 higher in spot Aug).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher (82¢ higher toward the back to $2.20 higher in spot Aug), helped along by firm wholesale beef values.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value 25¢ higher through Monday afternoon at $268.14/cwt. Select was $1.15 higher at $243.00.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged between mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were steady to $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $137/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $144-$149 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $147-$150. Dressed prices were $2 lower at $232.

The average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $144.35/cwt. on a live basis, which was $1.81 less than the previous week. The average price in the beef was $1.74 less at $232.22.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher through new-crop contracts on Monday and then mostly 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower as investors appeared to be skittish at the start of earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 164 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 262 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed narrowly mixed through the front six contracts

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Auction receipts will likely continue down the seasonal path this year — dipping in July and then growing through the end of the year — but with fewer numbers, says Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University. In the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly, he points out year-to-date stocker and feeder cattle auction receipts are about 3% less than the same time last year, according to

“While the drop in auction receipts for 2022 is one indicator of tighter supplies, the mix of steers and heifers is also of interest,” Maples explains. “The percentage of heifers (in the auction mix) has ticked higher in recent years, which is another signal that herd expansion is not occurring. The average weekly heifer percentage is 44% so far in 2022. For reference, this average was 39% during the first six months of 2015 when the U.S. herd was in a rapid expansion phase and more heifers were being retained for breeding.”

The next USDA Cattle report July 22 should provide more clarity to the number of calves born this year.