WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand in the Southern Plains to limited on light demand in other regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although there were too few transactions to trend, early live sales were $3 higher in the Southern Plains at $136/cwt.

Prices last week were at $133 in the Southern Plains, $133-$134 in Nebraska, $132-$135 in Colorado and $132-$134 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was at $210.

Cattle futures continued to gain ground Tuesday with recent cash strength and the likelihood of another step forward this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher, from 37¢ to $1.22 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 61¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $278.64/cwt. Select was $1.06 lower at $262.67/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Tuesday as bond yields continued to hamper tech stocks.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 194 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 79 points.

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U.S. beef and veal exports are projected at $9.1 billion next year, which would be $428 million more than this year, according to the latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The increase is based mostly on expected higher unit values.

Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast to increase by $1.9 billion to $38.7 billion, with gains across all major commodities except pork.

Total U.S. agricultural exports for 2022 are projected at $175.5 billion, down $2.0 billion from the August forecast, driven by forecast reductions in oilseed and oilseed product exports. If realized, however, the total would be record large.

“The global economic recovery continues to make progress, but with continued disruptions posed by both price pressures and supply issues. Continued supply-chain backlogs and coronavirus (COVID-19) variants have slowed the economic recovery,” say ERS-FAS analysts. “Despite these continued challenges, global employment statistics continue to gain strength, pointing to momentum in the economic recovery through the end of the calendar year. World real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 5.9% in 2021, and subsequently increase by 4.9% in 2022.”

ERS-FAS projects U.S. real GDP at 6.0% this year and 5.2% next year.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices last week were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $133/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $133-$134, steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $132-$134 and steady to $3 higher in Colorado at $132-$135. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $210.

Cattle futures gained some traction Monday with support from last week’s stronger cash prices and the neutral Cattle on Feed report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract, amid light trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher, from 32¢ higher at the back to $1.27 higher toward the front. 

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 84¢ higher Monday afternoon at $279.25/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $263.73/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 7¢ higher, riding wheat’s coattails.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 11¢ higher through the front six contracts, and then mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday as bond yield rates and the Dollar index increased.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 202 points.

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“Market-ready supplies of fed cattle have tightened and packers are actively chasing cattle for the first time in many months,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. He notes the upper end of last week’s negotiated cash fed cattle price range was $9-$10 higher than the last week of October.

At the same time, Peel explains Oklahoma auction prices for feeder steers (800-850 lbs., Medium and Large #1) increased nearly 6% since September and are about 21% higher than when the year began.

“This increase in feeder prices reflects generally tighter feeder cattle supplies and fed market optimism as reflected in Live Cattle futures prices in 2022,” Peel explains. “This is despite sharply higher feedlot cost of gain — up 33% from January to September in Kansas feedlot surveys.”

Stocker steer and calf prices are up sharply from early October lows. Oklahoma auction prices for Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 450-500 lbs. rose 13% over the last seen weeks and are nearly 8% more than the beginning of the year, according to Peel.

“In general, cattle prices are higher now compared to last year and are expected to continue improving in 2022. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures have priced in considerable optimism for 2022,” Peel says. “However, plenty of challenges remain for cattle producers with continued drought, higher input prices, supply chain disruptions and considerable short-term macroeconomic uncertainty. It will still be a bumpy ride, but producers can focus more on managing costs with cattle prices generally moving higher.”

Refreshing might be the most apt way to describe last week’s negotiated cash fed cattle trade. For the first time in what seems like forever, packers chased cattle to fill their pipelines. Cattle feeders passed early-week bids and carved mainly another $1-$3 from the market.

Live prices last week were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $132/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $133-$134 and $1-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $133-$134. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $210. Live prices in Colorado the previous week were at $132. There were a few sales reported at $135 in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, but too few to trend.

The five-area direct average fed steer price through Thursday was $1.66 higher than the previous week at $133.01/cwt. The average steer price in the beef was $2.99 higher at $209.59.

Estimated total cattle slaughter the week ending Nov. 20 of 677,000 head was 22,000 head more than the previous week. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 29.59 million head is 857,000 head more (+2.98%) than a year earlier. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.47 billion lbs. is 605.8 million lbs. (+2.54%) than a year earlier.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Friday, but rode the coattails of stronger cash prices to weekly gains.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ lower, except for unchanged to 12¢ higher in three contracts. They were an average of $2.83 higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 27¢ higher, except for 5¢ lower in Jun and unchanged at the back of the board. Week to week, they were an average of $1.15 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.25 higher Friday afternoon at $278.41/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $263.85/cwt. Week to week, though, Choice was $5.89 lower and. Select was $5.70 lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower, except for 1¢ higher in four contracts mid-board.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher, except for fractionally lower to 2¢ lower in the front five contracts.

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Except for the tech-heavy NASDAQ, major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by the new COVID lockdown in Austria.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 268 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 63 points.

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Logic suggests markets should view the latest monthly Cattle on Feed report — feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity — as neutral, coming in line with pre-report expectations.

Cattle feeders placed 2.25 million head in October, which was 53,000 head more (+2.4%) than a year earlier.

In terms of placement weights, 48% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 40% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 12% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in October of 1.79 million head were 85,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the same time last year.

Cattle on feed Nov. 1 of 11.95 million head were on par with a year earlier.

Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) point out the inventory of cattle on feed more than 120 days tightened by 175,000 head month to month. That’s the least in 10 months, they say, but still nearly 100,000 head more year over year.

“Continued placements of heifers is likely still happening to boost cattle placements and to maintain these levels of inventory,” say LMIC analysts in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The Jan. 1 cattle inventory is just around the corner and it’s looking more and more like the beef herd will be down more than 2%.”

Last week, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) raised the expected fourth-quarter feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., basis Oklahoma City) by $3 to $154/cwt., compared to the previous monthly projection.

That’s based on current price strength and improved prospects of winter pasturing stocker cattle, which will likely increase competition, according to ERS analysts, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. They point out October feeder steer prices at Oklahoma City averaged about $16 more year over year at $153.52/cwt. 

The forecast average feeder steer price for next year was unchanged at $155.50, compared to the projected average price of $145.55 this year.

ERS projects the average feeder steer price at $153 in the first quarter, $151 in the second quarter and $156 in the third quarter.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices perked up another $1-$3 on Thursday with light to moderate trade and demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $132/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Nebraska at $133-$134 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $133. Dressed trade was $3 higher at $210. Live prices in Colorado last week were at $132.

Stronger cash prices helped push Cattle futures higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.90 higher, except for 15¢ lower in nearly spent Nov.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 70¢ higher.

Lower grain futures prices added support.

Corn futures closed narrowly mixed, from 2¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 11¢ to 15¢ lower.

Wholesale beef prices continued to drift lower. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.66 lower Thursday afternoon at $278.47/cwt. Select was $2.53 lower at $264.06/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 25,500 metric tons (2021) for the week ending Nov. 11 were 23% more than the previous week and 58% more than the prior four-week average, according to the U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday.

Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by 1,000 to 268,000 for the week ending Nov. 13, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was in line with trader expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 60 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 72 points.

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Rabobank analysts expect operational beef packing capacity and cattle numbers to regain some relative balance by the second quarter of next year.

“Although packers will still have healthy margins compared to pre-pandemic levels, the price spread between beef and cattle will begin a multi-year narrowing trend in 2022,” say Rabobank analysts, in the recent Rabobank Global Animal Protein Outlook 2022. “Even as domestic beef demand (willingness to pay) falls slightly from its pandemic highs, continued export growth, declining beef production and general economic inflation will provide price support.”

Along those same lines, Don Close, Rabobank senior animal protein analyst notes North American feed costs are expected to remain at high levels. “Producers will need to be vigilant in finding opportunities to lock in profitable margins,” he says.

Animal protein supply chains face across-the-board cost inflation with the most significant increases coming in four key areas – animal feed, labor, energy and freight, according to the report.

“This next year has the potential to accelerate structural change as a result of escalating costs,” says Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst for Rabobank. “Success will most likely go the players that adapt to the changing business environment; embracing consumer preferences for sustainability and preparing for a surge in demand as economies continue to reopen and adjust following COVID-19-induced lockdowns.”

Apparent resolve by cattle feeders to ignore early, steady-money negotiated cash fed cattle bids helped underpin the slightly higher close in Cattle futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ higher, except for 35¢ lower in Jan

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ higher, except for unchanged in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices last week were at $132/cwt. on a live basis in the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains and Colorado. They were $131-$132 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $207.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.66 lower Wednesday afternoon at $278.47/cwt. Select was $2.53 lower at $264.06/cwt.

Grain futures strengthened on news ranging from reduced ethanol tariffs in South America to speculation about China buying interest in 2022.

Corn futures closed 5¢ higher through the front four contracts and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 19¢ to 25¢ higher through the front six contracts, 11¢ to 17¢ higher through the middle of the board and then 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, as investor concern about inflation appeared to be the main driver.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 211 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 52 points.

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Early 10-year baseline projections (2022 to 2031) from USDA’s Economic Research Service suggest livestock prices, except hogs, will increase over the next decade, while U.S. crop prices will decline.

“Beef cattle and broiler prices are expected to demonstrate a modest increase in the early years of the projection period before leveling off to slower growth, resulting in an average price increase of 8% to 17% over the decade,” according to ERS analysts.

The projected five-area direct fed steer price is forecast to increase steadily from $121.06/cwt. this year and $128.75 next year to $142.55 by 2031.

Feeder steer prices (basis Oklahoma City) are projected to grow from this year’s average of $144.80/cwt. to $155.50 next year and $171.19 in 2023. From there, the price increases to $181.41 by 2031.

That’s with the beef cow herd projected to be 30.56 million head in 2022, declining to 30.53 million in 2023 and then expanding steadily to 31.46 million head in 2031.

During the same period, season-average corn prices received by producers are projected to decline from $4.80/bu. in 2022-23 to $4.00 by 2026-27. ERS pegs the season-average corn price this year (2021-22) at $5.45.

“Expected declines for crops follow a period of generally higher prices that have peaked during the current marketing year,” say ERS analysts. “The price-bolstering effects of economic recovery, renewed export demand, and logistical problems in supply chains are forecast to subside after the recent peak during the 2021-22 marketing year, and crop prices are forecast subsequently to return to the earlier pattern of generally lower prices through 2031.”