WLI

A break in Corn futures prices and improving supply fundamentals helped Feeder Cattle futures close an average of 79¢ higher Tuesday (37¢ to $1.10 higher), except for 27¢ lower in the waning spot month.

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 6¢ lower through near Jly and then mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ‘23 and then 2¢ to 7¢ lower.

Incidentally, with most of the winter wheat in the ground as of Nov. 14, there was 46% rated as Good (39%) or Excellent (7%), according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report. That was on par with the same time last year.

Despite recently stronger cash prices, Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed again —  from an average of 15¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 17¢ higher — with pressure from the lack of cash direction and what appear to have been peak wholesale beef prices for the season.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon. There were too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices last week were at $132/cwt. on a live basis in the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains and Colorado. They were $131-$132 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $207.

Early indications suggest prices no worse than steady this week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 lower Tuesday afternoon at $282.13/cwt. Select was 69¢ lower at $266.59/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, on the back of robust U.S. retail sales in October.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October — adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes — were 1.7% more month to month at $638.2 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That was 16.3% more than a year earlier.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 120 points.

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With global demand for U.S. red meat surging and exports on a record pace this year, Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) says the severity of current transportation challenges can’t be overstated.

That was among many topics discussed at last week’s USMEF Strategic Planning Conference and Board of Directors Meeting, where panelists provided insight to the logistical challenges exporters face when moving chilled and frozen product through West Coast ports.

Veteran logistics journalist Bill Mongelluzzo, trans-Pacific senior editor at Journal of Commerce, noted that media outlets too often describe current shipping difficulties as gridlock, which misrepresents the situation and draws attention only to the number of vessels waiting at anchor.

“Gridlock means nothing is moving, when in fact the Port of Long Beach and other ports are moving record or near-record volumes of cargo every month, Mongelluzzo explained. “This has gone on for 16 consecutive months beginning in July 2020. The big issue right now are the warehouses – not just in Southern California where there’s close to 2 billion square feet of industrial space. You name the gateway – New York, New Jersey, Norfolk, Savannah – and these warehouses are totally and completely packed.”

On the other side of equation, Port of Long Beach Chief Operating Officer Noel Hacegaba shared steps the Port of Long Beach has taken to improve the flow of the surging volume of containers carrying imported cargo, which face several bottlenecks between U.S. point of entry and their final destination. Those steps include expansion of port operating hours and the recent imposition of dwell fees assessed on inbound containers that are not picked and removed promptly.

“Why are we assessing additional charges at a time when they need relief? Well, you can’t let the terminal, or even the ships at anchor, serve as warehouses – and that’s effectively what they’re doing,” Hacegaba explained. “We need to get those boxes out, and since we made that announcement, those boxes that this surcharge targets are down 20% at the Port of Long Beach, and this shows there is still room for improvement.”

Hacegaba and Mongelluzzo both cautioned that it is difficult to estimate when U.S. exporters will see significant improvement in the shipping industry’s ability to move their cargo to overseas destinations. Projections range from early 2022, when the Lunar New Year holidays tend to slow the volume of imports arriving at U.S. ports, to late 2022 or early 2023. The uncertainty is a growing concern for international customers who rely on prompt delivery of U.S. beef and pork.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade through Monday afternoon ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Prices last week were at $132/cwt. on a live basis in the Northern Plains and the Southern Plains. They were $131-$132 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were at $207.

The average dressed steer weight the week ending Oct. 30 was 920 lbs., according to USDA’s Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection report. That was 2 lbs. heavier than the previous week but 6 lbs. lighter than the previous year. The actual dressed heifer weight of 842 lbs. was the same as a week earlier but 6 lbs. lighter than the previous year.

Cattle futures traded sideways to slightly higher Monday, amid lackadaisical trade.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 17¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 21¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 57¢ higher, except for 32¢ lower in the waning spot month.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower through near Mar and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 12¢ higher through Sep ’23 and then mostly 7¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.10 lower Monday afternoon at $283.20/cwt. Select was $2.25 lower at $267.28/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales for the week ending Nov. 4 of 20,600 metric tons for 2021 were 23% more than the previous week and 39% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly U.S. Export Sales report. Increases were primarily for China, Taiwan, Japan, Mexico and South Korea.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed marginally lower Monday as investors awaited monthly economic data this week, including U.S. retail sales.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 7 points.

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Steer and heifer calves traded counter-seasonally stronger in most regions last week, mostly steady to $5/cwt. higher with instances of $7-$10 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“There were places in South Dakota where very heavy supplies of calves are dominating the market and traded lower as trucking has also been an issue,” according to AMS analysts.

The dwindling supply of yearlings traded most firm to $5 higher.

In his weekly market comments, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University notes calf prices are moving counter-seasonally higher amid what’s typically the peak calf marketing period of the year.

In Oklahoma, for instance, Peel says Medium and Large #1 steers the week ending Nov. 12 averaged $184.95/cwt. at 450-500 lb. That was $8.61 more than the prior week.

“The average price noted for value-added calves in the USDA-AMS report for the 450-500 lbs. steers was $194.57, nearly $10.00/cwt. higher than the average price for similar steers,” Peel says. “By contrast, the price for similar steers marked as un-weaned was reported at $174.86, about $10.00/cwt. lower than the average and about $20.00/cwt. lower than the price for the value-added calves. The value-added calves were valued $93.62/head more than un-weaned calves and $45.70/head over average calves.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices finished last week $2 higher in Nebraska on a live basis at $132/cwt. and $2-$4 higher at $132 in the Southern Plains and the western Corn Belt. Fed cattle in Colorado also sold for $132, but there’s been no trend reported in that region for some time. Dressed prices were $3-$5 higher at $207.

Through Thursday, the five-area direct average steer price was $131.35/cwt. on a live basis, which was $3.23 more than the previous week. The five-area average steer price in the beef was $4.55 higher at $206.60.

“This week’s five-area weighted average price is the highest price since June 2017 and the first week the price has exceeded $130 since that same time period,” explained Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The spring price peak in 2017 was just over $144/cwt., but the spring price spike was short lived. The difference in today’s market is that the market is in a position to sustain prices in excess of $130 for several months. Fed cattle prices are not likely to spike, but methodically increase.”

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week was 655,000 head, which was 5,000 head more than the previous week. Year-to-date total estimated cattle slaughter of 28.9 million head was 844,000 head more (+3.0%) than the same period a year earlier. Total estimated year-to-date beef production through last week of 23.9 billion lbs. was 601.8 million lbs. more (+2.6%) than a year earlier.

Rallying Corn futures pressured Cattle futures Friday, especially Feeder Cattle.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ lower, except for 25¢ higher in spot Dec. They closed an average of 33¢ lower week to week on Friday, except for an average of 27¢ higher in two contracts. 

Corn futures faded early-week pressure from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. On Friday, they closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher through Jly ’22 and then mostly 2¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 18¢ higher through the front six contracts. 

Soybean futures rallied higher, helped along by decreased projected yield in the WASDE. They closed 21¢ to 23¢ higher through Aug ’22 and then mostly 10¢ to 17¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 38.4¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cash calf and feeder cattle prices were mixed last week, but continued to show upside promise.

“The strong run of lightweight calves and slaughter cows the past several weeks has pressured prices for these classes of cattle, but prices have not faltered as much as the seasonal tendency would predict,” according to Griffith. “Most producers with spring calving herds will have marketed the 2021 calf crop and culled cows from the herd by early December. This means the price of these two classes of cattle will soon turn around and begin to seasonally increase as supply begins to wane.”

In the meantime, rallying grain futures pressured Feeder Cattle futures last week. They closed an average of $2.02 lower week to week on Friday ($1.50 lower toward the back to $2.62 lower in spot Nov). That was with an average decline of $1.13 on Friday. 

“The longer term outlook is for prices of cattle to continue increasing as there is an expectation of a bull market the next two to three years,” Griffith says. “However, the higher cattle price expectation in 2022 may not be able to overcome higher input costs for feed, fuel and fertilizer. Producers are encouraged to begin evaluating alternative production plans to reduce the dependency on these three inputs as prices are expected to remain elevated through the spring and potentially longer.”

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Wholesale beef values show signs of reaching a seasonal peak sooner than normal, but robust international demand for U.S. beef continues to strengthen the price floor.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 38¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $285.14/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $267.29. Week to week, Choice was $5.24 lower. Select was $2.01 higher.

“Despite the wholesale price of beef remaining elevated, international markets continue to be a vacuum for the high-quality beef and beef products being produced in the United States. The fact beef continues to move at a strong pace to international customers is a good indicator that demand remains strong for beef,” Griffith says. “There are sure to be some market analysts who will raise concerns about export demand slowing, which is always a possibility with customers like China. However, Japan and South Korea continue to lead the way as the top destinations with China being a solid third place followed by Mexico and Canada.”

Year-to-date U.S. beef exports remained on a record pace through September.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, bouncing back from pressure earlier in the week from the stoutest inflation in three decades.

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 33 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 156 points.

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On Friday, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) called on Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to immediately suspend all imports of fresh beef from Brazil to the United States.

In the letter to USDA, NCBA asked for a suspension until the agency conducts a thorough risk assessment and review of the processes that Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply (MAPA) uses to detect disease and other threats to consumers. NCBA also urged USDA to review Brazil’s veterinary diagnostic laboratory system.

The U.S. and Brazil share “Negligible Risk” status for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). However, according to NCBA, reports published by OIE indicate Brazil took more than eight weeks to report two confirmed cases of atypical BSE in September. The OIE requires countries to report within 24 hours for any animal disease event that could be of international concern for public health emergencies.

“It’s time to keep Brazilian fresh beef out of this country until USDA can confirm that Brazil meets the same consumer and food safety standards that we apply to all our trade partners,” says Ethan Lane, NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs.

“NCBA has long expressed concerns about Brazil’s history of failing to report atypical BSE cases in a timely manner, a pattern that stretches back as far as 2012. Their poor track record and lack of transparency raises serious doubts about Brazil’s ability to produce cattle and beef at an equivalent level of safety as American producers. If they cannot meet that bar, their product has no place here,” Lane says.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. There were too few transactions to trend.

So far this week, live prices are $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $131-$132/cwt., $2 higher at $132 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices are $3-$5 higher at $207.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 38¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $285.14/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $267.29.

Live Cattle futures wavered in place Thursday, while a break in the Corn rally helped Feeder Cattle breathe higher.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed from unchanged to an average of 17¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher (42¢ to $1.02 higher).

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 8¢ higher through Sep ’22 and then mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Thursday as investors appeared to be digesting direction amid increasing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 158 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 81 points.

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“After three Congressional hearings featuring the testimony of industry experts and a major economic analysis of the beef supply chain out of Texas A&M, Senators continue to ignore market fundamentals and are attempting to guarantee higher prices for livestock producers,” according to Julie Anna Potts, President and CEO of the North American Meat Institute.

Potts was referring to new bipartisan compromise legislation — the Cattle Market Price Discovery and Transparency Act — announced by U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) earlier this week.

Among other things, the law would establish regional mandatory minimum thresholds of negotiated cash and negotiated grid trades based on regional average 18-month trade levels.

“If this bill becomes law, there will be cattle producers who want alternative marketing arrangements, but will instead be forced to sell on the cash market, and the industry will turn back time to the days of commodity cattle,” Potts says.

She offers relevant statements made by expert agricultural economists during the aforementioned Congressional hearings.

For instance, in Senate testimony, Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University explained, “Stated directly – without contemporary use of alternative marketing agreements I believe cattle prices would be lower as production efforts would not align as well with consumer demands.”

In House testimony, Jayson Lusk, agricultural economist at Purdue noted, “Even if 100 percent of cattle were being sold on the cash market, it doesn’t mean prices would have been any higher than what we recently observed.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow with light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $131-$132/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $132 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $131-$132. There were too few dressed trades for a trend: $202-$204 last week.

Live Cattle futures were unable to capitalize on the stronger cash price, however. They closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 11¢ higher. Part of the pressure was likely due to lower wholesale beef prices.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.28 lower Wednesday afternoon at $285.52/cwt. Select was $4.00 lower at $266.62.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 lower with weight from resurgent grain futures.

Corn futures closed 13¢ to 14¢ higher in the front four contracts and then mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mainly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday with weaker tech stocks and renewed inflation concerns.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.2% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 240 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 263 points.

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Increasing feedlot cost of gain is pushing cattle out of the feedlot sooner, based on Kansas State University’s (KSU) Focus on Feedlots (FF) data.

In September, compared to a year earlier, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) say the FF data indicates steers were on feed for an average of 159 days, compared to 175 days the previous year and 165 days for the five-year average (2015-19).

Likewise, heifers were on feed for an average of 169 days in September, versus 176 days last year and 160 days for the five-year average.

“Although average days on feed is lower, feedlots show cattle on feed over 120 days in October was up 3.3% from last year and 7.6% above the five-year average,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

Since the beginning of this year, those analysts explain average cost of gain for steers is up 32.8% ($27/cwt.) and heifer cost of gain is up 37.2% ($32). Average cost of gain in September was $109.29/cwt. for steers and $118.34 for heifers, the priciest in about eight years.

“It is also worth noting that the KSU Feedlot average cost of gain data does not include the cost of feeder, yardage, and interest costs,” LMIC analysts say. “Higher average cost of gain is primarily due to rising feed costs for corn, up 47.7% ($2.25) and ground alfalfa hay, up 31.2% ($43) since the start of the year. The higher cost of gain will also motivate cattle feeders to market cattle quicker.”