WLI

Cattle futures faded early pressure to make gains Thursday, supported by early negotiated cash fed cattle trade at steady money.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 81¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.56 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Dressed delivered prices were steady at mainly $372/cwt. Although too few to trend, early FOB live prices were mainly steady at $235.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. There were too few transactions to trend, but there were some early FOB live trades at $235, which was mostly steady. Dressed delivered prices were $372 last week.

Trade was inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices there last week were $235.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.84 lower  Thursday afternoon at $389.85/cwt. Select was $3.83 lower at $391.66.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ higher, as traders appeared to add weather premium. Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by higher crude oil prices and conflicting messages about progress in ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 469 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 114 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 521 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.55 to $3.22 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday, pressured by a sharp decrease in Choice wholesale beef values.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.22 lower in the afternoon at $391.69/cwt. Select was 99¢ higher at $395.49. The Choice-Select spread was -$3.80. The last time the spread approached that level was in February 2022.

Toward the close, also awaiting the week’s negotiated cash fed cattle direction, Live Cattle futures were an average of 51¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in away Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.15 lower, except for $1.55 higher in waning spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $235/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $372.

Grain futures were higher Wednesday, supported by announced rescheduled U.S. trade talks with China.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures mostly 13¢ to 15¢ higher. Corn futures were 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 10¢ to 18¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Wednesday as crude oil prices declined on reports the U.S. sent a ceasefire proposal to Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 305 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 35 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 167 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 71¢ to $1.29 lower through the front six contracts.

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As mentioned in Cattle Current recently and perhaps indicated by more feedlot placements than expected in February, drought and the threat of it continue as headwinds to herd expansion.

Drought was impacting 54.8% of the continental U.S., according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. That was about 1% more than the previous week and 14% more than three months earlier.

Similarly, 54% of the U.S. cattle herd was in areas affected by drought, the same as a week earlier but 19% more than three months earlier.

Unfortunately, the current NOAA outlook for April-June suggests above-normal temperatures across much of the nation in tandem with normal to below-normal precipitation.

Cattle futures were mostly higher on Tuesday, despite resurgent oil prices and volatile equity markets. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 47¢ higher, except for an average of 15¢ lower in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.91 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $235/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $372.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 78¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $399.91/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $394.50.

Grain futures were higher Tuesday, buoyed by higher crude oil prices.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 3¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday as crude oil prices turned up again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 84 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 184 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 76¢ to $1.06 higher through the front six contracts.

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Wholesale beef prices continue higher ahead of seasonal peak demand, helped along by slower packer production.

“Memorial Day is considered the unofficial start of grilling season, which typically brings peak seasonal demand for beef. March and April usually bring peak demand for other proteins such as ham and lamb, while beef demand slows,” explains Bernt Nelson, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “This year, demand for beef has risen over the last several weeks, pulling prices higher at a much faster pace than in past years.”

Nelson points out the Choice beef cutout value increased $50.14/cwt. (13%) between Jan. 2 and March 20, leading many analysts wondering if the strong grilling-season demand will pull beef prices even higher this summer.

“Cattle supplies will take years to rebuild, but demand can change more quickly. Events such as a recession could be a threat to the strong demand that has supported beef prices over the last couple of years,” Nelson says. “Continued strong demand is key to maintaining a strong cattle market in the months to come. If demand begins to fall for any reason, especially during grilling season, beef prices will also begin to fall along with the cutout value. When the cutout falls, the packer has to buy cattle at a lower price, which leads to lower prices at the farm gate.”

Cattle futures extended gains on Monday, helped by more bullish outside markets, and despite more placements than expected in Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 84¢ higher, except for 45¢ lower in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.70 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly steady in all regions at mainly $235/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady at mainly $372.

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was 25¢ higher at $235.08/cwt. The weekly weighted averaged dressed delivered fed steer price was 11¢ higher at $372.15.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ lower Monday afternoon at $399.13/cwt. Select was 89¢ higher at $393.83.

Grain futures were lower Monday, pressured by lower crude oil prices.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ lower. Corn futures were 5¢ lower. However, Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ higher on likely technical buying.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday as crude oil prices retreated following comments from President Trump about positive talks with Iran the U.S. ceasing attacks on Iran’s energy and power infrastructure amid ongoing talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 631 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 74 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 299 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $4.85 to $9.77 lower through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index declined 7 points from the previous month in March to a reading of 40.9, the lowest level since last October and marking the thirteenth below-neutral level since January 2025. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the business community,” according to Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Approximately, 27.2% of bankers reported that small businesses in their area were experiencing declines in business activity.”

The Rural Mainstreet Index is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in 10 regional states dependent on agriculture and/or energy. It focuses on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.

In his case, Jeff Bonnett, CEO of Havana National Bank in Havana, Ill says, “The communities we serve are totally dependent on the ag economy. That said, our small businesses on main street are suffering along with our grain producers. We are now in our fourth year of tough local economic times due to this sustained downturn in the ag economy.”

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The March confidence index plunged to 29.5 from 45.8 in February, which was the highest reading since March 2022.

“In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” Goss explains.

More recently, the U.S. conflict with Iran has created significant volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening producer operating margins, increasing input costs and shifting planting decisions, according to Goss.

Despite increasing to a weak 28.6 month to month in March, the Farm Equipment Sales Index was below growth neutral for the thirty-first consecutive month.

Cattle futures were higher Friday, helped along by steady cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.34 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.60 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.46 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.96 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light to moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 lower in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $235/cwt. and steady elsewhere at mostly $235. Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady at mainly $372.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 19¢ lower Friday afternoon at $400.11/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $392.94. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $2.89 higher and Select was 70¢ higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 508,000 head was 17,000 head fewer than the previous week and 50,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 6.0 million head was 653,000 head fewer (-9.8%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 5.4 billion pounds was 429.8 million pounds less (-7.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower Friday on likely profit taking.

Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 21¢ lower. Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower through Jly ‘27. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ lower through Aug ‘27.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued lower Friday as nearby Crude Oil futures stepped higher with no end in sight for the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran and mounting concerns about domestic price inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 443 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 100 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 443 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 17¢ to $2.68 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets might view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as unfriendly with more placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.61 million head in February, which was 3.7% more than a year earlier and 4.7% more than average analyst estimates ahead of the report.

In terms of weights, 36% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 53% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Feedlots marketed 1.52 million head in February, which was 111,000 head fewer (-6.8%) than a year earlier, about 1% more than expectations. Marketings were the second least for the month since the data series began in 1996.

On-feed inventory March 1 of 11.55 million head was just 28,000 head fewer (-0.2%) than the prior year, which was slightly more than expected.