WLI

Cattle futures were mainly higher Monday, led by Feeder Cattle.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average 47¢ higher, except for an average of 43¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.07 higher (47¢ higher at the back to $1.55 higher near the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $229, $2 higher in Nebraska at $230 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $228-$230.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at mainly $356 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $356-$360 on a light test.  

The weekly weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price was $1.36 higher at $229.33/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 59¢ lower at $356.53.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.88 lower Monday afternoon at $349.33/cwt. Select was $1.82 higher at $345.62.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Monday with little news, other than reportedly positive progress in resolving the Ukraine-Russia fighting and South America’s looming harvest.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Corn futures were 7¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday on likely year-end profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 209 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points lower, and the NASDAQ was down 118 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 99¢ to $1.09 higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite extraordinary volatility in the fourth quarter, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out prices recovered from the steep sell-off and are ending  the year higher for the third consecutive time.

Peel provides some of his expectations for 2026, in his weekly market comments:

Higher feeder and fed cattle prices“Seven years of declining calf crops, culminating in the 2025 calf crop at the lowest level since 1941, and limited signs of heifer retention mean the feeder cattle supplies will be tighter going into 2026 and may tighten even more during the year if heifer retention picks up,” Peel says.

Prices advancing more slowly“Feeder and fed cattle prices, though expected to increase, are likely to increase relatively less in 2026 compared to 2025,” Peel says. “In 2025, feeder cattle prices increased roughly 25-35%, while fed cattle prices increased 15-20%. Both feeder and fed prices are likely to see prices increase in the range of 5-15% in 2026.”

Continued volatility“Unfortunately, volatility is likely to continue to be a risk for cattle producers,” Peel says. “The big fourth quarter 2025 correction should remove the tendency for a market or technical correction for quite some time, but external sources of uncertainty are likely to continue injecting volatility into cattle markets going forward. With cattle and beef markets continuing to be a focus of political scrutiny, markets are subject to additional political rhetoric and meddling.”

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, supported by firm negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures  closed an average of $1.06 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of $1.54 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.95 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 64¢ higher, except for an average of 67¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $229/cwt., $2 higher in Nebraska at $230, and $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $229.

Dressed delivered prices were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $356. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $356-$358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.41 lower Friday afternoon at $351.21/cwt. Select was $1.95 lower at $343.80.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the holiday-shortened week of 429,000 head was 158,000 head fewer than the previous week and 4,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 28.9 million head was 2.1. million head fewer (-6.8%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 25.3 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.0%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower in the front three contracts and then mostly fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closedmostly unchanged to fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial closed little changed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 20 points. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower, and the NASDAQ closed 20 points lower.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.41 to $1.61 lower through the front six contracts.

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Beef packing capacity utilization will continue to be less than historical norms, despite Tyson closing its plant at Lexington, Neb., and halving production at its Amarillo, Texas facility, according to Terrain’s recent outlook for the first quarter of 2026.

Terrain estimates the Tyson transitions will eventually reduce U.S. slaughter capacity by about 6.6%.

“However, slaughter plant capacity utilization is still nearly 6% behind historical norms, as the number of cattle is still well short of filling available slaughter capacity,” explains Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst. “I expect utilization to decline by about 2% during 2026 when two new plants in Nebraska and Missouri complete their startups. A proposed plant in the Panhandle of Texas that would handle 6,000 head per day has the potential to lower utilization rates back to early-2025 levels if completed. Even without additional future slaughter capacity, utilization rates will remain low; fed cattle numbers are expected to decline during the next two to three years because of cow-calf producers’ beef cow herd expansion efforts.”

In the meantime, Weaber says reduced fed slaughter packing capacity will help the remaining plants run more volume, improving efficiency by spreading fixed and semi-variable costs across more head and pounds of beef. He explains increased operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and compete more for the available cattle.

“Even with a 2% shift in leverage (fed cattle price to comprehensive cutout) to the packers’ favor, I expect the choice cutout to average between $375/cwt. and $385/cwt., and fed cattle prices to average between $234/cwt. and $238/cwt. in the first quarter,” Weaber says.

Cattle futures sputtered during Wednesday’s holiday-shortened session.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 26¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 32¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to mostly inactive on moderate demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $229 and $2 higher in Nebraska at $230, where dressed delivered prices are steady at $356-$358.

Last week, FOB live prices in the western Corn Belt were $228 and dressed delivered prices were $356-$358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.15 lower Wednesday afternoon at $354.62/cwt. Select was $3.84 lower at $345.75.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday with likely technical buying.

Toward the close, through near Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 11¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 288 points. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 51 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ to 7¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) edged above growth neutral this month for only the second time this year.

The overall index rose 6 points month to month to 50.1, the highest since last July. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. It is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices and high input costs for grain producers continue to restrain economic activity in the 10-state region,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

When asked to identify the most effective policy changes to boost farm income, half of the bank CEOs named the reduction of farm tariffs and trade restrictions as the most effective or useful.

“Tariffs continue to be a negative factor for the farming sector,” says Jeffrey Gerhart, former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Association. “We’ve worked hard to build good trading relationships with our trading partners across the globe, only to see it torn apart in less than 12 months.”

Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months, although the December confidence index rose to 40.9, its highest reading since January of this year.

Cattle futures were lower Tuesday with profit taking and floundering wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.03 lower (7¢ lower toward the back to $2.22 lower at the front), except for 10¢ higher in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate to good demand in Kansas through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher at $229/cwt.

Trade was limited on light to moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $356 and some FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $229. Last week, FOB live prices were $228-$229 in both regions. Dressed delivered prices were $356-$358.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $7.10 lower Tuesday afternoon at $355.77/cwt. Select was $1.10 lower at $349.59. The Choice-Select spread of $6.18 was the lowest since May of 2024.

Grain futures were higher Tuesday.

Toward the close, through near Jly, KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher with some likely risk premium added for the Ukraine-Russia war.

Corn futures were fractionally higher.

Soybean futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks and supported by stronger domestic economic growth than anticipated.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the initial estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 79 points. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 133 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 28¢ to 46¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Projected cattle feeding returns remain significantly positive through the first half of next year, based on the latest Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns. Keep in mind, these estimates are based on cash and assume no price risk management.

For instance, projected net returns for steers range from $500.25 per head this month to $221.79 in May, with a cost of feedlot gain increasing from $93.03/cwt. this month to $102.21 in May. Similarly, projected net returns for heifers range from $547.31 per head this month to $288.23 in May with a feedlot cost of gain growing from $99.77/cwt. this month to $109.66 in May.

Estimated returns decline progressively through May, primarily due to increasing feeder cattle prices. Then net returns turn negative.

Projected returns range from -$243.03 per head in June to -220.82 in August. Feeder cattle prices for those months are $334.84/cwt. and $325.42, respectively. By way of comparison, feeder steer prices before then ranged from $263.23 for cattle finished this month to $286.69 for those that will finish in May. Feedlot cost of gain for steers runs from $102.90/cwt. to $104.13 from June through August.

Cattle futures extended gains Monday, supported by Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.13 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1-$2 lower in Kansas at $228-$229/cwt. and unevenly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at $228. Dressed delivered prices were $356-$358, which was $3-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt and mainly $3 higher in Nebraska.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 22¢ lower at $227.97. The five-area-direct weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.50 higher at $357.12.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.24 higher Monday afternoon at $362.87/cwt. Select was $4.67 higher at $350.69.

Grain and soybean futures were higher Monday in what appeared to be a relief rally.

Toward the close, through near Jly  Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, supported by AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 227 points. The S&P 500 closed 43 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 121 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.22 to $1.41 higher through the front six contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides further context to tightening feeder cattle supplies, in his weekly market comments.

Reflecting on the latest Cattle on Feed report, Peel explains, “Feedlot inventories have declined year over year for 13 consecutive months, leading to a 12-month moving average total the lowest since October 2018.” 

As mentioned in yesterday’s Cattle Current, cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 11.7 million head were 255,000 head fewer (-2.1%) than the same month last year.

Moreover, Peel explains the rather slow decline in feedlot inventories masks a sharper drop in feedlot placements and marketings. 

“Feedlot placements in November were down 11.2% year over year and have decreased 8.6% in the last six months,” Peel says. “… As of November, average of feedlot placements the past year are at the lowest level since April 2016.”

Similarly, as of November, feedlot marketing had declined 7.9% during the past six months and average marketing were the least since August of 2106, according to Peel.