WLI

Cattle futures closed higher Friday and for the week, helped by holding recent gains in cash fed cattle prices and higher wholesale beef values on the day. The monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below) should help optimism.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.39 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $1.03 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.20 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to limited on moderate demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. For the week, FOB live prices were unevenly steady in both regions at $228/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $356-$358, which was $3-$6 higher in the western Corn Belt and mainly $3 higher in Nebraska.

Trade was inactive on moderate demand in Kansas. FOB live prices there last week were $230/cwt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.35 higher Friday afternoon at $361.63/cwt. Select was $2.05 higher at $346.02. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.19 higher and Select was $1.80 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 587,000 head was 9,000 head fewer than the previous week and 29,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 28.5 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-6.9%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.9 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.1%) than the same period a year ago.

Grain and soybean futures closed lower Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ lower through May ‘28.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday with follow-through support from the tamer than expected Consumer Price Index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 183 points. The S&P 500 closed 59 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 301 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 40¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Markets will likely view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as bullish with the fewest November placements since the data series began in 1996.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.6 million head in November, which was 201,000 head fewer (-11.2%) than the same month last year. That was 3.6% less than average analyst expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of weights for net placements, 52% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 35% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in November of 1.5 million head were 204,000 head fewer (-11.8%) year over year, which was in line with expectations, but the second fewest for the month going back to 1996.

Cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 11.7 million head were 255,000 head fewer (-2.1%) than the same month last year, which was slightly less than expected. Effects of the southern border closure to Mexican feeder cattle imports, due to New World screwworm, grows more glaring with each passing month. Texas feedlot inventory Dec. 1 of 2.6 million head was 9% less year over year and November placements of 285,000 head were 17% less.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were unevenly steady in both regions at $228/cwt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $3 higher at mostly $358. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $355-$358 in the western Corn Belt, where prices last week were $350-$355.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.19 higher Thursday afternoon at $357.28/cwt. Select was $2.46 lower at $343.97.

Cattle futures continued lower Thursday with still-overbought conditions.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 75¢ lower (25¢ lower at the back to $1.72 lower in spot Dec).

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.87 lower.

Grain futures were higher again on Thursday, while Soybean futures continued to flounder.

Toward the close, through near Jly, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by strong ethanol production and demand.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ higher, likely buoyed by short covering.  

Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, supported by a tamer inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis over the two months from September 2025 to November 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 65 points. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher, and the NASDAQ closed 313 points higher.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were unchanged to 7¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Economic uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is much lower than it was a year ago, steadying the broader outlook for 2026, according to a new year-ahead report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“With the year-on-year tariff inflationary effect fading by end of the first quarter, core inflation is likely to resume its downward trend in the second half of the year,” say CoBank analysts. “That will provide sufficient cover for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the accelerated depreciation provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will boost GDP growth by almost a full percentage point next year.”

Although the labor market has cooled from the post-COVID cycle and is now more in line with historic norms, CoBank analysts explain that wage growth near 4% and unemployment below 5% are well within the margin of safety for a growing economy in 2026.

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday with overbought conditions and some likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 92¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in Kansas and $225-$230 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $355 in Nebraska and $350-$355 in the western Corn Belt on a light test. There was no reported established trade in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.79 lower Wednesday afternoon at $356.09/cwt. Select was $2.67 lower at $346.43.

Grain futures were higher on Wednesday, while Soybean futures continued looking for a bottom.

Toward the close, through near Jly, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 228 points. The S&P 500 closed 78 points lower and the NASDAQ was down 418 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.18 to $1.45 higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

As of the end of last week, the comprehensive boxed beef cutout value had declined $40 from its peak of $409.20/cwt. the first week of September, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in is weekly market comments.

While the rib primal usually carries the cutout value during that period, Griffith notes rib value increased only about $13, from $630.76 to $643.29.

“The remaining six primal values have declined over that time period including chuck (-$69.97), round (-$69.01), loin (-$17.85), brisket (-$20.18), plate (-$20.56), and flank (-$55.04),” Griffith says. “The carcass is heavily weighted toward the chuck and round as they comprise a little more than 50% of the carcass. The loin comprises approximately 20% percent of the carcass while the rib is approximately 10% of the carcass. This means the entire carcass is being challenged.”

Feeder Cattle futures led Live Cattle higher on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.15 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 30¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $230/cwt. in Kansas and $225-$230 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $355 Nebraska and $350-$355 in the western Corn Belt on a light test. There was no reported established trade in the Texas Panhandle.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 58¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $358.88/cwt. Select was $1.80 higher at $349.10.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday.

Toward the close, Corn futures were 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower.  Soybean futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Tuesday, pressured by a sluggish national employment outlook.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was also little changed from the previous report in September at 4.6%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged 5¢ higher in November to $36.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 302 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower, but the NASDAQ was up 54 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.50 to $1.70 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

Current cattle numbers suggest beef production will continue losing ground for the next couple of years, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Decreased beef production is the result of smaller U.S. calf crops for seven consecutive years since 2018,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “The feeder cattle supply continues to tighten as a result, leading to lower feedlot production, decreased cattle slaughter and lower beef production.”

Decreased beef cow culling the last three years may enable the national cow herd to stabilize in 2026, Peel says. However, he adds, “There is currently no indication of significant heifer retention, and it will not be possible to hold the herd inventory stable, and certainly not to rebuild inventories, without additional heifer retention. Therefore, beef production is expected continue decreasing for the next couple years, likely leading to even higher beef prices.”

Cattle futures closed mostly higher Monday with follow-through support from last week’s higher cash prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 56¢ higher (30¢ to $1.12 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 43¢ higher, except for an average of 64¢ lower in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5 higher in Kansas at $230/cwt., $5 higher in Nebraska at $225-$230, and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $225-$230. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were mostly $10-$15 higher at mainly $355 and $10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $350-$355 in a light test.

There was no reported established trade in the Texas Panhandle last week.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $6.98 higher at $228.19. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $11.01 higher at $353.62.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.02 higher Monday afternoon at $359.46/cwt. Select was $3.08 higher at $347.30.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Through mid-afternoon, Corn futures were 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday,  pressured by AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 41 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 10 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 137 points.

Through mid-afternoon West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 49¢ to 76¢ lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered expected feeder calf prices for next year in the December Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Compared to the previous month, the projected fourth-quarter price for Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City was $4 less at $354/cwt.

“In November, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $346.18/cwt., a decline of nearly $30 from October,” say ERS analysts. “The decline is notable as feeder steer prices set an all-time record of $383.48/cwt. in the second week of October. On a very low number of calves sold on Nov. 24, feeder steer prices dropped to $317.71/cwt. Two weeks later, on Dec. 8, prices rebounded to $343.96/cwt.”

For next year, the ERS forecasts the feeder steer price at $340 in the first quarter and $343 in the second quarter for an annual 2026 price of $345.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS lowered estimated five-area direct fed steer prices, compared to the previous month, in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

For this year, the fourth-quarter price dropped $8 to $226/cwt. and the annual average price declined $2 to $223.97. For 2026, projected prices declined $12 in the first quarter to $230, $9 in the second quarter to $234 and $12 in the third quarter to $236. The annual 2026 average price was $11 lower at $235. Price reductions were based on recent price data and the announced loss of packing capacity.

“Looking ahead to 2026, lower year-over-year placements of calves in feedlots are still expected for the fourth quarter of 2025 and in the first half of 2026, which are expected to support record prices next year, albeit lower than previously projected,” ERS analysts say.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected 2025 beef production by 194 million pounds to 25.95 billion pounds, based on the faster rate of fed and non-fed slaughter in the fourth quarter, as well as heavier dressed weights. That would be 1 billion pounds less than last year (-3.8%)

Estimated 2026 production of 25.73 billion pounds would be 225 million pounds less (-0.9%) than this year’s estimated total.