WLI

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices were $230/cwt., which was $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$10 higher in Nebraska, and $10 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $10-$15 higher at $355.

Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $340-$345. Two weeks earlier, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $215-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 67¢ lower Friday afternoon at $357.44/cwt. Select was 76¢ higher at $344.22.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 596,000 head was 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 27.9 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-6.9%). Year-to-date estimated beef production of 24.4 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.2%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures settled lower Friday on likely profit taking and week-end positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.28 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.36 lower.

Soybean futures led the grain complex lower Friday, with lingering uncertainty over the trade deal with China. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Nov. ’26 and then 8¢ to 9¢ lower.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower through Jly ’27, after 16¢ lower in spot Dec.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 245 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 73 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 398 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 16¢ to 32¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports continued to lose ground in September, according to delayed USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Exports for the month of 80,835 metric tons were 22% less year over year and the least since June 2020. Export value of $660.9 million, also down 22% and the lowest since February 2021. Even when excluding China, beef export volume fell 11% year-over-year, due in part to lower production.

January-September beef exports totaled 856,023 mt, down 11% from a year ago (and down 4% when excluding China). Export value was down 10% to $7.03 billion.

While U.S. pork exports held steady in September, Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO says, “The situation is obviously much more challenging on the beef side, primarily due to the ongoing impasse with the Chinese government, which continues to ignore its commitments under the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement. U.S. industry losses continue to mount as a result of this lockout, and relief simply cannot come soon enough.”

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is conducting a Section 301 investigation of China’s implementation of the U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement, popularly known as the Phase One Agreement, with a public hearing set for Tuesday, Dec. 16. USMEF submitted comments to USTR detailing China’s failure to meet its Phase One commitments on red meat trade.

Cattle futures climbed higher Thursday, led by the surge in cash fed cattle prices. Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.15 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.78 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Kansas to light to moderate on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, based on the latest established trade, FOB live prices are $230/cwt., which is $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$10 higher in Nebraska, and $10 higher in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are $10 higher at $350-$355.

Last week, dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $340-$345. The previous week, FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle were $215-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.25 lower Thursday afternoon at $358.11/cwt. Select was $1.42 lower at $343.46.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Thursday.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Thursday with follow-through support from the Fed cutting interest rates.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 646 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 60 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 75¢ to 86¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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While increased uncertainty tied to political rhetoric and actions fueled the recent cattle market price decline, Stephen Koontz, Colorado State University agricultural economist, says cattle prices were well-above levels implied by market fundamentals through much of this late summer and into fall.

“A reasonable set of demand elasticities and supply information from the Cattle on Feedreports suggested fed animal prices closer to $215/cwt. this fall and not the better than $240 observed,” Koontz explains in an early-December issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Similarly, with the calculated boxed beef composite value often above $370/cwt., and occasionally above $400/cwt., then packers needed to pay less than $230 to break even. This did not happen and has not for a while – that is, fed cattle trading below packer breakeven. It looks to me as if the packing industry hasn’t made any money for better than two years – and I know cattlemen don’t care – but it’s not reasonable to expect losses to continue for the foreseeable future. Fed cattle prices had to retreat, and smaller animal prices with them. The seasonal timing is not a surprise.”

Although long-term price uptrends in Cattle futures prices were challenged, briefly broken in some instances, Koontz says they remain mostly intact.

“Fed cattle numbers, as seen in Commercial Slaughter, will be down 6.9% for the year. These numbers will also be down something like 6% in 2026 and 5% in 2027,” Koontz says. “Animal numbers will have to tighten further before any increase in numbers is seen. There will be some offset with higher weights, and from feeder cattle placed from Mexico with any reopening of the southern border. But not enough to change the fact of tightening supplies, reduced production, more imports and fewer exports and lower beef consumption. The plant closings and plant operational reductions announced recently are, in my mind, just the beginning. The supply fundamentals don’t change for the next 2-3 years. Only the volume of completing meats is in question.”

Cattle futures gained on Wednesday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.54 higher, except for 2¢ lower in spot Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.13 higher. They’re up sharply on Thursday with reports of higher cash fed cattle prices.

Through Wednesday afternoon, Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $225/cwt. in Kansas, $220-$225 in Nebraska and $220 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $340-$345.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $215-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $359.93/cwt. Select was $3.15 lower at $344.88.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday.

Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher through Sep ‘27.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, buoyed by the Fed cutting interest rates 0.25%, as was widely anticipated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 497 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 46 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 77 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 17¢ to 22¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures wobbled Tuesday with indecisive two-sided trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 25¢ higher, except for 53¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 45¢ lower, except for 32¢ higher in Nov.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $225/cwt. in Kansas, $220-$225 in Nebraska and $220 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $340-$345.

FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $215-$220.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $361.04/cwt. Select was 57¢ lower at $348.60.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower 4¢ higher, helped by reduced ending stocks in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

KC HRW Wheat futures were unchanged to fractionally mixed, challenged by an increase in estimated global ending stocks.

Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower, with no supply or use changes in the WASDE.

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Major U.S. financial indices teetered on Tuesday as investors awaited this week’s Fed decision about interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 30 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) an average of 34¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered estimated five-area direct fed steer prices significantly, compared to the previous month, in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

For this year, the fourth-quarter price dropped $8 to $226/cwt. and the annual average price declined $2 to $223.97. For 2026, projected prices declined $12 in the first quarter to $230, $9 in the second quarter to $234 and $12 in the third quarter to $236. The annual 2026 average price was $11 lower at $235. Price reductions were based on recent price data and the announced loss of packing capacity.

Compared to the previous month, the ERS increased expected 2025 beef production by 194 million pounds to 25.95 billion pounds, based on the faster rate of fed and non-fed slaughter in the fourth quarter, as well as heavier dressed weights. That would be 1 billion pounds less than last year (-3.8%)

Estimated 2026 production of 25.73 billion pounds would be 225 million pounds less (-0.9%) than this year’s estimated total.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook was for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports were raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion, reflecting shipments to date. With no supply changes and with use rising, corn ending stocks were lowered 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.00 per bushel.

Soybeans

2025/26 U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections were unchanged. U.S. season-average prices were projected at $10.50 per bushel for soybeans, $300 per short ton for soybean meal and 53¢ per pound for soybean oil.

Wheat

All supply and use categories for 2025/26 U.S. wheat were unchanged. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price was unchanged at $5.00 per bushel.

Cattle futures stepped back from recent gains on Monday with likely profit taking and technical selling.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 81¢ lower, except for 17¢ higher in spot Dec. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.76 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light 70 moderate demand through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5 higher in Kansas at $225/cwt., $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $220-$225 and $10-$12 higher in the western Corn Belt at $220. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $340-$345 and $12-$15 higher in the western Corn Belt at $340-$345.

There was no reported established weekly in the Texas Panhandle last week. FOB live prices the previous week were $215-$220.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $9.68 higher at $221.21. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer prices was $13.23 higher at $342.61.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ lower Monday afternoon at $360.90/cwt. Select was $1.21 higher at $348.60.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Monday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ lower. Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday with mixed inflation signals as investors awaited this week’s Fed decision about interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 215 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 1.09 to $1.22 lower through the front six contracts.

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“As 2025 wraps up there is still little indication of significant heifer retention for herd rebuilding though some retention may be beginning slowly,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. 

Peel notes the July Cattle report showed the smallest beef replacement heifer inventory in the history of the report, going back to 1973. He adds that, compared to July, the percentage of heifers in feedlots was unchanged in the October Cattle on Feed report and remained above average, as it has since late 2018.

“It is true that heifer slaughter is down 6.6% so far this year and is falling faster than steer slaughter, which is down 4.4% for the year to date.  Average heifer slaughter peaked most recently in January 2023 and has declined 9.0% as of October 2025, Peel says. “Heifer slaughter is quite variable and does decrease during periods of herd expansion. However, at this point the decrease in heifer slaughter is not enough to indicate significant heifer retention.”

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.