WLI

Cattle futures continued higher Friday on positive fundamentals and the week’s higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.01 higher (95¢ to $5.70 higher).

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $7.80 higher ($6.50 higher to $11.57 higher in spot Dec). That’s an average of $12.02 higher in the last two weeks.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.83 higher on Friday ($1.92 to $3.62 higher). Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $15.94 higher. That’s an average of $26.86 higher over the past two weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $5 higher than earlier in the week at $225/cwt.

Trade in the western Corn Belt was limited on moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $220-$222.

For the week, FOB live prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $220-$225 and $10-$12 higher in the western Corn Belt at $220. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 higher in Nebraska at $340-$345 and $12-$15 higher in the western Corn Belt at $340-$345.

There was no reported established weekly trade in the Southern Plains. The previous week, FOB live prices were $215-$220 in the Texas Panhandle and mainly $220 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.56 lower Friday afternoon at $361.20/cwt. Select was $2.93 lower at $347.39.

Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.62 lower and Select was $3.66 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the week of 600,000 head was 102,000 head more than the prior holiday-shortened week but 14,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 27.3 million head was 2.1 million head fewer (-7%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 23.9 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.3%).

Turning to row crops, Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Friday.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 14¢ lower on increasing confusion about the U.S. trade deal with China.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher through Sep ‘26, and then fractionally mixed with spillover pressure from Soybeans.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed unchanged to 2¢ lower, except for 6¢ lower in spot Dec.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased higher on Friday, supported by a tamer inflation reading than expected. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was 2.8% higher year over year in September, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. That’s the latest data available, due to the government shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 104 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 72 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 41¢ to 50¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA issued the monthly livestock slaughter report for October last week, delayed due to the government shutdown. Still, it provides some insight.

For instance, through the end of October steer and heifer slaughter led the overall decline in cattle slaughter, which was 6.7% less at the time, marking the third year of declining numbers, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). Steer slaughter was 4.7% less year over year and heifer slaughter was 7%.

“Compared to prior troughs in slaughter around 2015, declines in heifer slaughter remain smaller than those observed then (2013-14: -8.6%; 2014-15: -13.2%),” LMIC analysts say in a recent Livestock Monitor. “Pullbacks in beef cow and bull slaughter have also been significant this year; beef cow slaughter is down 18.2% year over year to just below 2 million head, while bulls are down 10%.” For perspective, they explain beef cow slaughter

fell 17.9% from 2013-14 and 14.7% from 2014-15 for the January-October period.

Cattle futures were higher once again Thursday, buoyed by stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.43 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.60 higher, except for 40¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $220/cwt. and dressed delivered prices were $340. That was $10 higher in Nebraska and $10-$12 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $215-$220 in the Texas Panhandle and mainly $220 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.09 lower Thursday afternoon at $362.72/cwt. Select was $2.80 lower at $350.32.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher on Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ higher, helped by ethanol production.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ to 8¢ higher, as traders added more risk premium for the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 51 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 49¢ to 73¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures eased higher Wednesday amid chatter that cash fed cattle prices could improve this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $215-$220/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mainly $220 in Kansas, mostly $210 in Nebraska and mainly $208-$210 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $330 in Nebraska and $328-$330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.81/cwt. Select was $2.34 higher at $353.12.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower on Wednesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 6¢ to 7¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, with continued optimism about the Fed cutting interest rates this month. Some of the optimism came from the loss of jobs indicated in the November ADP National Employment Report^®. According to the report, private sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in November and pay was up 4.4% year over year.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”

November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction, according to ADP.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 40 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to 47¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Taking stock of global economic health, the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook suggests the global economy remained resilient this year in the face of trade uncertainty, although underlying fragilities remain.

The Outlook projects global growth slowing from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, before picking up to 3.1% in 2027.

GDP growth in the United States is projected to decline from 2.0% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. In the euro area, growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. China’s growth is projected to ease from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.

Annual headline inflation in the G20 economies is expected to moderate to 2.9% and 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, from 3.4% this year. By mid-2027, inflation is projected to be back to target in most major economies.

Cattle futures surged higher Tuesday with little apparent cause other than oversold conditions and perhaps easing headline pressure, at least for the day.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.75 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.41 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $215-$220/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, mainly $220 in Kansas, mostly $210 in Nebraska and mainly $208-$210 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $330 in Nebraska and $328-$330 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.17 lower Tuesday afternoon at $364.72/cwt. Select was $7.10 lower at $350.78.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher, helped along by strong demand.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ higher with traders likely adding some geopolitical risk.

Soybean futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower as traders await confirmation of China making good on its deal to purchase more.

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Major U.S. financial indices were higher Tuesday, supported by cryptocurrency and AI stocks, which had led them lower the previous day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 185 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 16 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 137 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 69¢ to 73¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment increased in November, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which climbed 10 points from October to 139, its highest level since June.

The increase was driven primarily by increased producer optimism for the future, as the Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index dipped 2 points to 128.

“Producers became more optimistic about U.S. agricultural trade prospects in November. That coincided with a rise in crop prices, which led to farmers’ improved expectations for their farms’ financial performance and an improvement in farmer sentiment,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Farm Financial Performance Index increased by 14 points to 92 in November. The percentage of producers expecting better financial results this year grew to 24%, up from 16% in October.

Producers were also more optimistic about future agricultural trade prospects in November. In response to a question included in every barometer survey since January 2019, just 7% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken over the next five years, down from 14% in October and 30% in March.

Cattle futures tried to hold recent gains Monday but were mostly lower as traders began the new week and month.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.21 lower (15¢ lower to $2.07 lower). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.68 lower, except for an average of 58¢ higher in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4-$9 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $215-$220/cwt., mostly $2-$4 lower in Kansas at mainly $220, mostly $8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $210 and $7-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $208-$210. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 lower in Nebraska at $330 and $12-$17 lower in the western Corn Belt at $328-$330.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $5.88 lower at $211.52. The five-area direct weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $13.98 lower at $329.38.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.07 higher Monday afternoon at $368.89/cwt. Select was $6.83 higher at $357.88.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Monday on likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 8¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices sagged lower Monday, pressured by cryptocurrency and AI stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 427 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 36 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 89 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 84¢ to 91¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University emphasizes the same fundamentals exist today as before the government shutdown and before the federal government’s announced intention to lower beef prices.

“The October and November Cattle on Feed reports show continued slow erosion of feedlot inventories with placements and marketings showing a more dramatic picture of tight cattle supplies,” Peel explains, in his weekly market comments. “October placements were the lowest in the data series back to 1996 and the 12-month moving average of placements shows that average feedlot placements the past year have been the lowest since July 2016.” 

Similarly, Peel says October feedlot marketings were the lowest for the month since 2015 and feedlot inventories have declined for 12 consecutive months. He explains feedlot inventories are expected to continue decreasing with smaller feeder cattle supplies, the absence of Mexican feeder imports and heifer retention still ahead.

“Steer and heifer carcass weights are higher again this year but not enough to offset declining slaughter,” Peel says.  “Fed beef production is down 2.7% so far this year and, combined with an 8.2% year-over-year decrease in non-fed beef production, leads to a decrease in total beef production of 3.6% year over year.” He notes beef production has been 5.8% less year over year for the past 24 weeks.