WLI

Recently surging wholesale beef values and more positive outside market helped Cattle futures rally higher Wednesday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.11 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $6.96 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $244/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $239-$243 in Nebraska and mainly $243 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383 in Nebraska and $382-$383 on a light test in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 52¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $388.57/cwt. Select was $1.77 higher at $380.35.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower Wednesday, as traders appeared to reduce some risk premium based on the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, as well as domestic weather.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 13¢ lower. Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices gained Wednesday, following the early-week selloff tied to the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, led by tech stocks and supported by decelerating Crude Oil futures and a more bullish labor reading than expected.

Private sector employment increased by 63,000 jobs in February and pay was up 4.5% year-over-year according to the February ADP National Employment Report^®.

“We’ve seen an increase in hiring and pay gains remain solid, especially for job-stayers,” says Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “But with hiring concentrated in only a few sectors, our data shows no widespread pay benefit from changing jobs. In fact, the pay premium for switching employers hit a record low in February.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 290 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 50¢ to $1.12 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mostly able to hold the previous session’s gains on Tuesday after early pressure tied to declining outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from unchanged to an average of 72¢ lower in three contracts (2¢ to $1.97 lower) and then an average of 26¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $244/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $239-$243 in Nebraska and mainly $243 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383 in Nebraska  and $382-$383 on a light test in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.71 higher Tuesday afternoon at $388.05/cwt. Select was 37¢ higher at $378.58.

Grain and Soybean futures trended higher Tuesday, as traders digested the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran.

Toward the close, and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Corn futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday as Crude Oil futures continued higher in response the U.S.-Israel attacks against Iran.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 403 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 64 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 232 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.15 to $3.78 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment improved slightly in February, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index increased 3 points from January to a reading of 116. The Current Conditions Index climbed 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index slipped by 1 point and fell to its lowest level since September 2024. The survey was conducted Feb. 2-6.

“Although producers reported stronger current conditions in February, the overall survey sentiment suggests farmers are carefully weighing short-term stability against longer-term uncertainty,” says Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Many operations are still feeling financial pressure compared to a year ago, which is evident in their cautious investment strategies and a more reserved outlook for the coming year.”

Approximately 44% of respondents said their farm operations were worse off in February than a year earlier. Looking ahead, producers remained cautious about their financial outlook, with 29% expecting their farm’s financial performance to worsen over the next 12 months, compared to 18% who anticipated an improvement.

Producers’ views on the broader direction of the U.S. economy weakened slightly for the second consecutive month; the percentage who indicated the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” declined from 62% in January to 59% in February.

Since 2016, the February barometer survey has included questions about producers’ long-term growth plans. This year, approximately 15% of respondents said they plan to reduce the size of their operation, while 34% reported no plans to grow. By contrast, 51% indicated they expect to expand their farms over the next five years, including 14% who plan to increase their operation’s size by 10% or more. The survey also found that 36% of producers plan to bring another family member into the business during the next five years, signaling a continued emphasis on expansion and succession planning despite ongoing financial concerns.

Cattle futures were under early pressure Monday from lower outside markets tied to uncertainty about the impact of the U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran. Ultimately, though, Cattle futures trended mainly higher.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.23 higher (65¢ to $1.57 higher), except for $1.42 lower in the back contract.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.48 higher, except for $3.45 lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5 lower in the Southern Plains at $244/cwt., $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $239-$243 and mostly $2-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $243.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $5 lower in Nebraska at mainly $383 and $5-$6 lower in the western Corn Belt at $382-$383 in a light test.

The five-area direct weekly weighted average fed steer price was $4.20 lower at $242.71/cwt. The weekly weighted averaged dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.35 lower at $382.60.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.50 higher Monday afternoon at $381.34/cwt. Select was $3.90 higher at $378.21.

Grain and Soybean futures trended lower Monday, pressured by uncertainty related to the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, as well as likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through near Sep contracts, Kansas City HRW Wheat futures were 6¢ to 14¢ lower. Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were down hard at Monday’s open as Crude Oil futures spiked higher in response the U.S.-Israel attacks against Iran. Later, investors appeared willing to take advantage of the pullback.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 73 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 80 points.

Although off of session highs, through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.04 to $4.61 higher through the front six contracts.

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Continuing drought and the threat of drought will likely make producers cautious about aggressive herd expansion in major beef cow states where the majority of herd liquidation has occurred, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Compared to the recent peak in 2019, Peel explains the national beef cow herd at the beginning of this year was 4.03 million head less (-12.7%) at 27.61 million head.

“A proportionally larger share of herd liquidation has occurred in the heart of beef cow production regions,” Peel says.  “In 2019, 13 states in the middle of the country accounted for 64.6% of the total herd but by 2026, the share had dropped to 63.1%. The herd-inventory change in these 13 states in the past seven years totaled 3.0 million head, 74.3% of the total herd decrease.”

Beside drought concerns, Peel says changes in crop production and land use could pose expansion challenges in some areas.

“From 2019 to 2025, corn and soybean planted acreage in the U.S. increased by 8.6%, an increase of 14.2 million acres,” Peel explains. “In South Dakota, planted crop acreage increased by 3.38 million acres, up 24.5% from 2019 to 2026, with corn and soybean acreage up by 52.2%. Simultaneously, hay acreage in the state decreased by 710 thousand acres.”

Along with South Dakota, Peel says it appears increased crop production is likely to limit herd rebuilding in the Midwest and eastern regions of Great Plains states, including Kansas, Nebraska and North Dakota.  

Cattle futures plumbed lower Friday, with continued concern about a potential strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colo., lower cash fed cattle prices, bearish outside markets, as well as month-end profit taking and technical selling.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $3.49 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $7.51 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $6.30 lower ($2.57 lower in expiring Feb to $9.77 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $12.88 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle ranged from moderate on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $5 lower in the Southern Plains at $244/cwt. and $4-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $240-$243. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $247-$248.

Dressed delivered prices were $5 lower in Nebraska at $383. The previous week, prices were $388 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.95 higher Friday afternoon at $379.84/cwt. Select was $3.52 higher at $374.31. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $13.14 higher at $379.84/cwt. and Select was $13.57 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 516,000 head was the same as the previous week but 53,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Total year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 4.5 million head was 501,000 head fewer (-10.1%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 4 billion pounds was 342.3 million pounds less (-7.9%).

Wheat futures led the grain complex ahead on Friday, closing 10¢ to 21¢ higher on short covering tied to weather concerns in India.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ higher through near Dec and then mostly 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures were 4¢ to 9¢ higher through near Aug  and then mostly 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with likely month-end and week-end position squaring, along with pressure from a more bearish inflation reading than expected.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% month to month in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 521 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 210 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.39 to $1.81 higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle sold mixed, but mainly steady to lower at the auctions monitored by Cattle Current last week, especially later as Cattle futures declined. Growing demand for replacement heifers was evident at many auctions.

These comments from Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reporters capture the week-end flavor.

“Demand for grass cattle was very good … Buyers looking for grass heifers dipped into the light end of replacement heifers in order to buy high quality cattle. This class of cattle showed the largest increase in value week over week,” according to the AMS reporter at Public Auction Yards in Billings, MT on Friday. “Cattle too big to go to grass were the soft part of the sale as lighter offerings made putting together loads of like- quality cattle difficult. Additionally, CME positions sold off sharply today which put some pressure on this class of cattle.”

Likewise, the AMS reporter at Herreid Livestock Auction in South Dakota on Friday noted, “Very good demand for backgrounding or grass type cattle today, good to very good demand for finishing type cattle depending on flesh condition and very good demand for replacement heifers.”

A day earlier, at Cattlemen’s Livestock Auction in Dalhart, Texas, the AMS reported explained, “Wheat cattle may continue to come to town as the weather warms up and not much chance of precipitation in the near future. Grass fires have plagued the area recently with the continuing dry weather and plenty of fuel left over from this last summer.”

While grass cattle will likely continue to command the strongest demand headibg into March, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, points out in his weekly market comments feeder cattle prices have a seasonal tendency to weaken.

 “The softening of feeder cattle prices in March correlates with finished cattle prices six months down the road when those cattle will come off feed in early fall. These are months with softer finished cattle prices,” Griffith explains.

Cattle futures stepped lower Thursday, pressured by wariness over a potential strike at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, CO and softer early cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.84 lower, except for unchanged in expiring Feb. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.05 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was moderate on moderate demand in the North through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

In Nebraska, early dressed delivered prices were $5 lower at $383/cwt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $243-$245; prices last week were mainly $247-$248.

In the western Corn Belt, early FOB live prices were $2-$4 lower at $243. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades at $382-$383; prices last week were $388.

Trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices there last week were $249.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.34 lower Thursday afternoon at $377.89/cwt. Select was $3.72 higher at $370.79.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Thursday with early pressure from disappointing weekly export sales.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, KC HRW Wheat futures were fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher.  Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Thursday, pressured by tech stocks. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 17 points higher. The S&P 500 down 37 points. The NASDAQ was down 273 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 5¢ to 11¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity numbered, 2,082 last year, which was 23 fewer than the previous year, according to the latest Cattle on Feed report. There were 24,000 feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity, which was the same as a year earlier — so, a total of 26,082 feedlots.

Total capacity for feedlots of all sizes was 17.1 million head, just 100,000 head less than the previous year.

“Feedlot capacity has averaged 17.07 million head for the past 20 years, ranging from 16.7 million head in 2009 to 17.3 million head in 2017,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “Total feedlot capacity has varied between 17.1 and 17.2 million head since 2018. The total feedlot inventory on Jan. 1 (2026) was 81% of total feedlot capacity with feedlots of greater than 1,000 head capacity utilizing 67% of total feedlot capacity.”

While feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity represented 92% of all feedlots, they accounted for just 12.9% of total fed cattle marketing last year, according to Peel. On the other end of the size scale, he explains, 4% had a capacity of more than 50,000 head, while 3% possessed capacity of 32,000 to 50,000 head.

“The largest feedlots accounted for 41% of fed cattle marketed, along with another 18% for the second largest category,” Peel says. “Thus, 7.1% of the largest feedlots marketed 58.8% of fed cattle in 2025. For feedlots with greater than 50,000 head capacity, 82 feedlots marketed 8.39 million head, or average marketings per feedlot of 102,317 head in 2025.” For comparison he notes feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity marketed about 126 head on average.

Listen to more of Peel’s market insights here.