WLI

Cattle futures extended gains in the holiday-shortened trading session on Friday, supported by stronger cash fed cattle prices at the end of the week and more confidence in the ability of other Nebraska packers to pick up the slack from the plant closure in Lexington (see below). Apparently, some traders also were heartened by the U.S. Agriculture Secretary’s comments earlier in the week suggesting the southern border will reopen on a staggered basis to Mexican cattle imports when it does reopen.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $5.15 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $8.59 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in the Texas Panhandle through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $220/cwt., which was $5 higher than earlier in the week but $4 lower than a week earlier.

Trade in Kansas was moderate on good demand. FOB live prices were mostly $2-$4 lower at mainly $220.

In the western Corn Belt, trade was limited on moderate demand. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales at $215. For the week, FOB live prices were $7-$8 lower at $208-$210. Dressed delivered prices were $12-$17 lower at $328-$330.

Trade in Nebraska was inactive on light to moderate demand. For the week, FOB live prices were mostly $8 lower at mainly $210. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 lower at $330.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.46 lower Friday afternoon at $366.82/cwt. Select was $4.46 lower at $351.05.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 501,000 head was 84,000 head fewer than the previous week and 32,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.7 million head was 2 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 23.3 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-4.4%).

Corn and Soybean futures continued higher Friday, supported by positive demand, including Chinese soybean purchases.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher through May ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by tech stocks and growing optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 289 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 150 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 10¢ to 24¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Although disrupted by the holiday, fundamental footing appeared to resume in Cattle futures last week.

Live Cattle futures closed an average $4.22 higher week to week on Friday. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $10.92 higher.

That was after the mostly limit-down session to start the week as traders reacted to Tyson’s reduced packing capacity. Various reports toward the end of the week suggested recently built packing capacity can absorb the losses, besides the fact that cattle numbers continue to decline.

Although negotiated cash fed cattle prices continued lower last week, they showed signs of strengthening toward the end of the week. For perspective, FOB live prices declined $16.66/cwt. from the week ending Oct. 13 to the week ending Nov. 23 at $217.41. Dressed delivered fed steer prices were down $19.16 during the same period at $343.36.

Wholesale beef prices continued to languish, with Choice boxed beef cutout value $4.66 lower week to week on Friday and select down $5.93. However, seasonal strength should begin appearing as the calendar turns to December.

Cash calf and feeder cattle prices continued their spiral last week, pressured by the massive volatility and market uncertainty mostly wrought by politics.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $19.20 lower week to week on Thursday at $321.96. That was $54.19 lower than the recent high on Oct. 16.

Cattle futures climbed higher Wednesday, suggesting a bottom may have been established.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $4.63 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.06 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in the North to inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $9 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $215/cwt., mostly $8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $210 and $7-$8 lower in the western Corn Belt at $208-$210. Dressed delivered prices are $10-$15 lower in Nebraska at $330 and $12-$17 lower in the western Corn Belt at $328-$330.

FOB live prices in Kansas last week were $222-$224.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.81 lower Wednesday afternoon at $368.28/cwt. Select was 42¢ lower at $355.51.

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Wednesday, supported by an apparent slowing in farmer selling.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ to 9¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 314 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 46 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 189 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 52¢ to 61¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Last week’s USDA Cattle on Feed report indicated there were 4.36 million heifers on feed Oct. 1. That was 245,000 fewer heifers than a year earlier and the fewest for the month since 2018, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

However, David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University notes last year’s inventory included spayed heifers from Mexico.

“Over the April-September 2024 period, 266,559 spayed heifers were imported. So the decline in heifers on feed reflects no imported heifers from Mexico and any decline in domestic placements in feedlots,” Anderson explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “The expectation is that fewer spayed heifers would have been imported this year compared to last year but, considering imports, the report doesn’t indicate much heifer retention.”

Cattle futures bounced back Tuesday, as traders absorbed news of Tyson’s plans to reduce packing capacity, and perhaps some latent reaction to Friday’s Cattle on Feed report, which underscored declining cattle numbers.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.01 higher (5¢ to $3.25 higher), except for an average of 71¢ lower in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.66 higher, except for $1.82 lower in away Nov. and no trend in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on good demand in Nebraska through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live sales were $8-$9 lower at $209-$212/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $10-$15 lower at $330.

In the western Corn Belt, trade was light on moderate demand. FOB live prices were $7-$10 lower at $208 and dressed delivered trades were $12-$17 lower at $328-$330.

Trade in the Southern Plains was inactive on light demand. Last week, FOB live prices were $224 in the Texas Panhandle and $222-$224 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 40¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $370.09/cwt. Select was 42¢ higher at $355.93.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced higher Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains on Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 664 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 153 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 63¢ to 84¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Economic pressure on agricultural crops continues to challenge rural economies, according to the November Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI). Although the overall index increased 9.4 points from October to a weak 44.0, it remained below growth neutral for the ninth time this year.

The RMI ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral. It is based on a survey of bankers in a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Regional dependence on crop or livestock production shaded current views. About 32% of bankers indicated their rural economies were in an economic recession and 31% saw recession coming in 2026. However, 33% of bankers saw solid growth and no recession.

Among other key findings…

• Farmland prices sank below growth neutral for the 18th time in the past 19 months. Approximately, 58.3% of bankers expect farmland prices to fall in 2026, with an average decline of 3.1%.
• On average, bank CEOs expect 18.3% of farmers and ranchers in their area to record negative cash flow for 2025.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 27th consecutive month.

Cattle futures plowed lower Monday on Friday’s Tyson new that it would shutter its packing plant in Lexington, Neb, and decrease production in its Amarillo, Texas plant.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were limit-down $7.25, except for an average of $6.99 lower in the back three contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were limit-down $9.25.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $208/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was inactive on light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Texas Panhandle at $224/cwt., $4-$6 lower in Kansas at $222-$224, mostly $7 lower in Nebraska at mainly $218 and $7-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at $215-$218. Dressed delivered prices were $10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$345 and mostly $3-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $7.65 lower at $217.41. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $7.58 lower at $343.36.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 99¢ lower Monday afternoon at $370.49/cwt. Select was $1.47 lower at $355.51.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 585,000 head was 9,000 head more than the previous week, but 50,000 head fewer (-7.9%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.2 million head was 2 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 22.9 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-4.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed to lower Monday in lackadaisical holiday trade.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower to fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices extended gains on Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 202 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 102 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 598 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 86¢ to 98¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Tyson’s announced closure of its plant in Lexington, Neb., and shifting to a single shift at its plant in Amarillo, Texas will reduce industry slaughter capacity by roughly 7,000 to 8,000 head per day, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. 

“The exact impact will depend on forthcoming details, especially how Tyson will manage a one-shift plant,” Peel explains, in his weekly market comments. “Depending on the details, the reduction represents roughly 7.5% to 9.0% of total industry slaughter capacity.”

Even so, Peel says excess packing capacity will continue for the forseeable future.

“Tyson’s planned reduction in packing capacity may be nearly (but not quite) enough to balance the decrease in cattle slaughter since the peak in 2022. However, fed slaughter is expected to continue decreasing in 2026 and 2027,” Peel says. 

Cattle futures continued closed lower Friday, but off session lows. Pressure included the week’s softer cash fed cattle prices, news about U.S. tariffs being rolled back on Brazilian beef imports and Tyson announcing closure of its packing plant in Lexington, Neb.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 33¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 99¢ lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $2.90 lower, except for unchanged in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.00 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $224/cwt., mostly $7-$8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $218-$219 and $7-$12 in the western Corn Belt at mostly $215. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$347 and mostly $3-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ higher Friday afternoon at $371.48/cwt. Select was $2.80higher at $356.98.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 585,000 head was 9,000 head more than the previous week, but 50,000 head fewer (-7.9%) than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 26.2 million head was 2 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 22.9 billion pounds was 1 billion pounds less (-4.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower with ongoing pressure from the surprisingly high yield estimate in the November WASDE. Corn futures an average of 7¢ lower through the front six contracts week to week on Friday.

On Friday, KC HRW Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher through Aug ’26 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower with lingering pressure from profit taking and farmer selling.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, buoyed by increasing confidence the Fed will cut interest rates again this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 493 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 64 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 195 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 70¢ to 94¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Tight supplies and over-capacity finally caught up to one of the nation’s major beef packers.

Tyson Foods announced the closure of its beef processing plant in Lexington, Neb. as part of its plan to right size its beef business and position it for long-term success,” according to a company statement. No date was given for the closure.

Tyson also it will convert its Amarillo plant to one full-capacity shift and increase production at other company beef facilities.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral to friendly with fewer placements than expected.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 2.0 million head in October, which was 227,000 head fewer (-10.0%) than a year earlier. That was 2% less than estimates ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, feedlots placed 45% weighing 699 lbs. or less, 41% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 14% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in October of 1.7 million head were 148,000 head fewer (-8.0%), in line with expectations.

Cattle on Feed Nov. 1 of 11.7 million head was 260,000 head fewer (-2.2%), year over year, which was also in line with expectations ahead of the report.

USDA also issued numbers for what would have been the October Cattle on Feed report, which was unpublished due to the government shutdown.

September feedlot placements of 2.0 million head were 6.3% less, September marketings of 1.6 million head were 3.9% less and the Oct. 1 on-feed inventory of 11.1 million head was 1.1% less.