WLI

Cattle futures mostly edged higher Wednesday, maintaining the previous session’s strong gains and expectations for steady to stronger cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 11¢ higher, except for unchanged to an average of 15¢ lower in two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 16¢ higher, except for an average of 25¢ lower at either end of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $248/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $245 in Nebraska and mostly $244-$245 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $382 in Nebraska and $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 96¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $363.80/cwt. Select was 41¢ higher at $360.63.

Grain futures gained Wednesday on likely short covering.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased higher Wednesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 129 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 38 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 175 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.45 to $3.02 higher through the front six contracts with increased risk related to U.S.-Iran talks.

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Intuitively, we know that beef demand is important and that more is better than less. However, determining what specific demand levels mean to prices, relative to a given supply of beef, is complex.

“In short, the market simply would not have experienced observed beef and cattle price outcomes in either 2024 or 2025, absent notable consumer demand strength,” says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University (K-State), in the Feb. 17 issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Stated simply, the number of beef cows matters but is far from the complete story and robs the industry of credit for a good story worth telling, and better appreciation.”

Try this on for size: increased demand explains 87% of increased year-over-year retail beef price in 2025, whereas the declining beef supply accounts for 14%. That’s according to a recent analysis by Tonsor and fellow K-State agricultural economist, Brian Coffey.

“… Dramatic national-level herd liquidation since 2019 has been a key factor in supporting prices for cattle all along the supply chain and all types of beef,” they explain. “However, a look at the data readily reveals that the market changes observed in past few years are anything but one-dimensional. One factor that has received less attention than others is the role of consumer demand for beef.”

In A Microeconomic Assessment of the U.S Retail Beef Market: Beef Demand Matters, they illustrate demand’s role in U.S. consumers paying higher retail beef prices for more beef.

Cattle futures closed higher Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were $1.96 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.01 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $248/cwt., mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $345 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $244-$245. Dressed delivered prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $282 and $2-$4 higher at $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.01 lower Tuesday afternoon at $364.76/cwt. Select was $1.01 lower at $360.22.

Grain futures were lower Tuesday on resistance.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures, however,  were 1¢ to 4¢ higher on resilient demand.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but to the plus side on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 7 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 31 points.Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 46¢ to 64¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected feeder steer prices for this year in the February Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. For Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and trading at Oklahoma City, the ERS increased prices $11 in the first quarter to $363/cwt., $8 in the second quarter to $363, $4 in the third quarter to $363 and $6 in the fourth quarter to $368. The annual average price increased $7.25 to $364.25.

ERS analysts explain the weighted-average price for feeder steers of that weight and class selling at Oklahoma National Stockyards was $360.04/cwt. in January, which was $15.50 more month to month. Prices the first week of February were $94 more year over year at $364.51.

“Despite higher-than-expected supplies of cattle available for placement in 2026, based on the January Cattle report, supplies overall remain very tight,” ERS analysts say.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mostly $3 higher in the Southern Plains at mainly $248/cwt., mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $345 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $244-$245. Dressed delivered prices were $4 higher in Nebraska at $282 and $2-$4 higher at $380-$382 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 higher Monday afternoon at $367.77/cwt. Select was $2.19 lower at $361.23.

Futures and equity markets were closed Monday for Presidents Day.

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Industry concentration and consolidation appears to be continuing on the production side of agriculture, according to the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.

The number of farms in the United States for 2025 was estimated at 1,865,000, down 15,000 farms from 2024. The number of farms decreased in all sales classes except the $1,000,000 or more sales class. In 2025, 48.0% of all farms had less than $10,000 in sales and 78.8% of all farms had less than $100,000 in sales. In 2025, 9.9% of all farms had sales of $500,000 or more.

Total land in farms decreased 2,510,000 acres year over year to 873,950,000 acres. The land in farms decreased in all sales classes except the $1,000,000 or more sales class, which increased by 850,000 acres.

In 2025, 25.7% of all farmland was operated by farms with less than $100,000 in sales, while 50.1% of all farmland was operated by farms with sales of $500,000 or more.

The average farm size for 2025 is 469 acres, up from 466 acres the previous year.

Cattle futures eased mostly lower Friday, awaiting full development of the week’s cash fed cattle trade.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 21¢ lower, except for 57¢ higher in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ higher, except for 27¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were mostly $5 higher at mainly $245/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$4 higher at $380-$382.

Trade was limited on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $244 and a few dressed trades at $380. Prices there the previous week were $240-$242 and $378, respectively.

Trade was inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains. FOB live prices the previous week were mostly $245.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Friday afternoon at $364.47/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $363.42. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef was $4.86 lower and Select was $1.11 lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 541,000 head was 5,000 head more than the previous week but 21,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.4 million head was 404,000 head fewer (-10.6%) than the same time last year. Total estimated year-to-date beef production of 3.1 billion pounds was 285.1 million pounds less (-8.6%).

Book squaring and profit taking ahead of the market’s three-day weekend appeared to be the order of business for Grain and Soybean futures on Friday.  

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 12¢ lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices were little changed Friday, retaining most of the previous session’s losses but helped by a softer inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.2% in January, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all items index increased 2.4% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in January. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care and communication. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance were among the major indexes that decreased in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 48 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 50 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 2¢ to 3¢  through the front six contracts.

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The United States signed a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan last week, which removes non-tariff trade barriers to U.S. red meat exported to Taiwan. U.S. beef gains duty-free access, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

“Strong, science-based trade agreements are essential to adding value for U.S. cattle producers, and Taiwan has emerged as one of the strongest international markets for U.S. beef,” says NCBA President Gene Copenhaver. “Duty-free access improves competitiveness and provides long-term certainty for producers who depend on export markets to maximize the value of every animal. Foreign markets play a critical role in producer profitability with beef exports accounting for more than $415 per fed cattle processed in 2024.”

More specifically, Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation explains, “Taiwan is the fifth largest market for U.S. beef, with exports valued at about $650 million, and the U.S. is the largest supplier of beef to Taiwan. But there is still potential for further growth with the increased access for all U.S. beef products … The elimination of tariffs on U.S. beef will definitely improve our competitiveness.”

Cattle futures eased lower Thursday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction and more bearish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 13¢ lower to an average of 23¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in one contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $245/cwt. in the Southern Plains, mostly $240/cwt. in Nebraska and $240-$242 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.08 lower Thursday afternoon at $364.84/cwt. Select was 45¢ higher at $363.03.

Grain and Soybean futures gained Thursday.  

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 14¢ to 15¢ higher with likely technical buying. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 12¢ higher, buoyed by positive trade talks with China.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with more investors reportedly concerned about how AI may take away from business rather than add.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 669 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 108 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 469 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.67 to $1.79 lower through the front six contracts.

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La Niña continues to weaken and is expected to dissipate by March, with a transitional phase most likely through spring and early summer, according to Matt Makens atmospheric scientist, who provided the weather outlook during the recent CattleFax Outlook Seminar in Nashville. “We’re watching a classic transition year unfold,” said. “Even as the ocean changes, the atmosphere typically takes four to eight weeks to respond, so weather impacts will lag.”

In the near term, drought risks remain elevated across the Southern U.S. and Central Plains, with a 70% chance of intensification, especially south of I-70 and west of I-35. Spring’s neutral setup may help moisture distribute more evenly, though lingering La Niña effects could still limit precipitation west of I-35.

Summer outcomes hinge on how quickly a potential El Niño develops, Makens explains. A fast forming El Niño could deepen drought in corn growing regions while increasing precipitation in the West, whereas slower development may support more balanced moisture. By fall, El Niño becomes increasingly likely, though global climate factors could still alter its typical impacts.

“El Niño isn’t a guarantee of rain for everyone,” Makens says. “Other global patterns can amplify or mute its influence, so close monitoring remains essential.”