WLI

Cattle futures continued to unwind Thursday. Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.01 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.92 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to limited on moderate demand in Nebraska and Kansas. Trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle.

Based on the last established trade, FOB live prices for the week are $4 lower in the Southern Plains at $224/cwt., mostly $7-$8 lower in Nebraska at mainly $218-$219 and $7-$12 in the western Corn Belt at mostly $215. Dressed delivered prices are $8-$10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$347 and mostly $8-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 5¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $371.28/cwt. Select was 63¢ higher at $354.18.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Thursday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 8¢ to 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, pressured by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 386 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 103 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 486 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 17¢ to 50¢ lowerthrough the front six contracts.

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Beef exports were sharply lower in August year over year ago, according to data recently released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

August beef exports totaled 83,388 metric tons (mt), down 19% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020, impacted heavily by an impasse with China that has effectively locked U.S. beef out of the world’s largest import market.

Export value fell 18% to $695.5 million, the lowest since February 2021. While exports to China plummeted, shipments were fairly steady to leading market South Korea and trended higher than a year ago to the Caribbean and Central and South America.

Beef export value equated to $372.10 per head of fed slaughter in August, down 5% from a year ago. The January-August average was $400.16 per head, down 3.5% from the same period last year.

Cattle futures sagged lower Wednesday with pressure from lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices and sluggish wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.60 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.83 lower, except for 90¢ higher in spot Nov.

Presumably, USDA will publish the November Cattle on Feed report Friday. Pre-report estimates peg October placements and marketings 7-8% lower and Nov. 1 on-feed inventories about 2% lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were lower Wednesday. FOB live prices were $6 lower at $215-$219/cwt. in Nebraska and $4-$9 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $218 on moderate trade and moderate to good demand. Dressed delivered sales were $8-$10 lower in Nebraska at $340-$347. Although too few to trend, there were some dressed delivered trades in the western Corn Belt at $340-$347. Prices there last week was $350.

Trade in Kansas was light on moderate demand with Live FOB prices $4 lower at $224.

Although too few to trend, there were also some FOB live trades at $224/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle where prices last week were $228.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 72¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $371.23/cwt. Select was $1.40 lower at $353.55.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures 7¢ to 8¢ lower.  KC HRW Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 13¢ to 17¢ lower.

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Grain and Soybean futures were lower Wednesday with likely profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 24 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 131 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 13¢ to 23¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures extended gains from the previous session on Monday with a feeling of confidence, despite more negative rhetoric from the White House, aimed at beef packers this time (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $7.02 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were limit-up $9.250, except for $2.80 higher in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $232, $5 lower in Kansas at $230-$232, mostly steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at mainly $230 and mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $228. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $357-$360 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $2.16 lower at $228.70. The weighted average dressed-delivered fed steer price was 21¢ lower at $358.33.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 92¢ higher Monday afternoon at $377.32/cwt. Select was $1.39 lower at $359.70.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday, with some likely early positioning tied to the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates that are supposed to be published Friday, in spite of the government shutdown.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ to 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 14¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Monday, buoyed by signs the government shutdown might be nearing an end.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 381 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 103 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 522 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 35¢ to 42¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle futures rallied higher Monday, despite President Trump’s latest social media shotgun salvo, aimed at beef prices and blasted in a Truth Social post last Friday. In it, he accuses meat packers of collusion, price fixing and other sundry crimes, and he demands immediate investigation from the Department of Justice.

Essential as beef packers are to the cattle business, it likely always will be difficult to find a cattle producer sympathizing with them. However, even the most devout packer detractor might find it difficult to explain why packer margins have been in the red for so long if they wielded the power suggested.

Using history, facts and a bevy of credible research over decades, it’s even tougher to argue consumer beef prices wouldn’t be higher than they are currently, and producer prices wouldn’t be lower, if not for the efficiencies yielded by the modern-day packing infrastructure, warts, concentration and all.

“Concentration in any industry leads to the potential for market power. The ability of concentrated firms to utilize market power depends on controlling supply,” explains Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, in his weekly market comments. “Large firms do not control demand and can only influence price by controlling supply relative to demand. Beef packers’ ability to manipulate cattle or beef prices is severely limited, owing to the fact that they do not control supply … packers do not own cows. Packers inevitably purchase and process all available cattle at any point in time – whether too many or not enough cattle. The current situation is way not enough cattle and packers can’t change that. If there were more cattle to process, they would, and beef prices would decrease.”

More specifically, Peel shares a summary of related research from just a few years ago.

“Agricultural economists recognize the potential for market power to be expressed in highly concentrated industries. The cattle and beef industry, and the beef packing industry in particular, has been researched in multiple studies to understand the impacts of market concentration,” according to the summary. “The evidence shows: 1) market power does negatively impact fed cattle prices, but the impact is small; and 2) the cost savings due to size economies are at least 10 times greater than the negative market power impacts. Cattle producers and beef consumers receive net benefits from the cost efficiencies of the current market structure in the form of higher cattle prices and lower beef prices than would exist in a less efficient industry.”

Those are facts.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded, therefore, all bets are off.”

Cattle futures firmed Friday.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.74 higher. However, they were an average $6.97 lower week to week on Friday. That’s about an average $23.09 lower over the past three weeks.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.36 higher on Friday but an average of $13.38 lower week to week and about an average of $51.78 lower over the past three weeks.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at $232 and $3-$5 lower in Kansas at $232. FOB live prices were unevenly steady in Nebraska at $230-$230.50 and mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly mainly $228. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $357-$360 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.56 lower Friday afternoon at $376.40/cwt. Select was 33¢ higher at $361.09. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $1.73 lower but Select was $2.44 higher.

Grain futures and were lower Friday, while Soybean futures closed higher.  Corn futures were mostly 1¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 10¢ higher through near Aug and then 3¢ to 4¢ higher.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday, following a volatile trading session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 74 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 49 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 32¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provide some perspective on declining cash calf values, in the latest Livestock Monitor. They note Oct. 17 was the recent price peak for Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 500-600 lbs. in many market areas.

At the time, prices were $487.60/cwt. in Montana, $509.91 in South Dakota, $496.64 in Nebraska and $461.78 in the Southern Plains (Oklahoma and Kansas).Just two weeks later, LMIC analysts say prices were 9.1% to 12.6% lower in these areas at $426.25 in Montana, $462.35 in South Dakota, $451.50 in Nebraska and $406.71in Oklahoma and Kansas. Still, they point out prices in these market areas last week were 31.7% to 44.4% higher year over year.

Cattle futures moved lower again on Thursday with follow-through pressure and lower negotiated cash fed cattle prices for the week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 74¢ lower, except for $1.85 higher in the back contract. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.96 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3-$4/cwt. lower in the Texas Panhandle at $232 and $3-$5 lower in Kansas at $232. FOB live prices are unevenly steady in Nebraska at $230-$230.50 and mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at mainly $228. Dressed delivered prices are steady to $1 lower in Nebraska at $357-$360 and steady to $3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $355-$360.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 29¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $377.97/cwt. Select was 51¢ higher at $360.76.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely profit taking, farmer selling and weaker outside markets.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 6¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 16¢ to 17¢ lower. Soybean futures were 20¢ to 28¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday, as investors soured on artificial intelligence companies once again.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 75 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 445 points.

Though mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 2¢ to 11¢ lower through the front six contracts.