WLI

Hopefully, Feeder Cattle futures finally found a bottom from the recent plunge on Wednesday, as traders pressed prices significantly higher Wednesday, helped along by Live Cattle futures, as well as no timeline for resuming cattle imports from Mexico, which some had feared.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $5.33 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.57 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are mostly $230/cwt. in the North and dressed delivered trades in Nebraska are $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.73 higher Wednesday afternoon at $381.28/cwt. Select was $1.79 higher at $361.79.

Profit taking from recent gains seemed to be the order of the day in the grain complex on Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat mixed, from 1¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Wednesday. While the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, as widely anticipated, investors soured on suggestions from the central bank that it might not cut rates again this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 74 points lower. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 130 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 21¢ to 24¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Live Cattle futures firmed and mostly gained Tuesday, while Feeder Cattle futures continued to unwind with long position liquidation.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 71¢ higher, except for an average of 54¢ lower in the front two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.61 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on light to moderate demand elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in Nebraska at $228-$230/cwt.

Established FOB live prices so far this week are $230 in the North with dressed delivered trades in Nebraska at $355-$360.

Last week, FOB live prices in the Southern Plains were $238. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $372 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.77 higher Tuesday afternoon at $379.65/cwt. Select was $1.66 lower at $360.00.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher again Tuesday on speculation the U.S. will ink a deal with China.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, led by tech stocks and supported by positive quarterly corporate earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 161 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 190 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 54¢ to $1.16 lower through the front six contracts.

******************************

There was no October monthly Cattle on Feed report, which was supposed to be published last Friday but wasn’t due to the government shutdown. However, analysts did release pre-report estimates.

On average, analysts pegged the Oct. 1 cattle on feed inventory to be 1.9% less year over year, roughly 11.38 million head, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

Analysts estimated September feedlot placements at about 1.97 million head which would be 8.6% less year over year. Projected September marketings were approximately 1.63 million head, about 0.4% less year over year.

LMIC analysts point out the October report would have shed some light on the quarterly mix of steers and heifers on feed.

“This is not a value forecasted and published among pre-report estimates,” LMIC analysts explain, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “The last time this value was published was in the July report, which at the time had the contribution of steers-to-heifers at about 1.6 steers to every heifer on feed. For context, since roughly 2019, this ratio ranged between 1.5 to 1.7 steers per heifer, which is very low compared to the last two decades.

“During the last major trough and expansion event from early 2012 to mid-2015, the ratio moved from 1.6 to over 2.2 steers per heifer. Recently, minor reductions in heifers on feed have occurred, but uncertainty will remain without this data.”

Cattle futures continued to plunge lower Monday, fueled by uncertainty created by the federal government’s attempts to lower domestic consumer beef prices (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $9.14 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $13.22 lower, limit down, except for $9.025 lower in spot Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on Moderate demand in the North through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $230/cwt., which was $5-$9 lower in Nebraska and $5-$10 lower in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $9-$10 lower at $358-$360. Last week, dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $372.

Last week, FOB prices in the Texas Panhandle were $2 lower than the previous week at $238.

The five-area weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $1.93 lower at $237.87/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $3.13 lower at $369.30.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.12 higher Monday afternoon at $377.88/cwt. Select was $3.69 higher at $361.66.

Soybean futures led the grain complex higher Monday on speculation the U.S. will ink a deal with China.

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 18¢ to 24¢ higher. Corn futures were 4¢ to 7¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat 13¢ to 14¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices climbed higher Monday, supported by growing expectations of a trade deal with China and the Fed cutting interest rates at this week’s meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 337 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 83 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 432 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 5¢ to 18¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Increasing market uncertainty and volatility, tied mostly to threats and rumors of government intervention to lower domestic consumer beef prices continue to cast a pall over markets.

“There are certainly policy changes that can be made to support an increase in domestic beef production,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee in his weekly market comments. “However, none of those policy changes will result in a short-run change to beef and cattle prices.”

For instance, Griffith notes policy can be changed to reduce the barriers to importing more beef, but he explains nearly all of that beef will be lean grinding beef.

“Thus, it may marginally result in a decrease in the cost of ground beef, but consumers will not know the difference,” Griffith says. “Increasing imports is not going to change the price of high-valued cuts such as steaks or other muscle cuts.”

Cattle futures, continued to firm Tuesday and gain back from last Friday’s sharp losses.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.59 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 87¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions, which was $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$6 higher in Nebraska, $5 higher in the western Corn Belt, and compared to two weeks earlier, $7 higher in the Texas Panhandle.

Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher in Nebraska at $372 and $10-$10.50 higher in the western Corn Belt at $372-$372.50.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.75 higher Tuesday afternoon at $371.93/cwt. Select was 89¢ lower at $352.57.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with chart resistance.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were1¢ to 2¢ lower.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 218 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally higher. The NASDAQ was down 36 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 14¢ to 35¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures melted down Friday on President Trump’s widely reported and vague comments that the White House plans to lower beef prices. Algorithmic trading likely drove the selloff deeper and faster than would have otherwise been the case. Fundamentally speaking and guided by history, government intervention in cattle and beef markets has never been favorable to producers.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $6.50 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $9.08 lower — limit down in all but the front contract.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average $2.59 lower, except for $1.78 higher in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.86 lower, from 80¢ lower in the back contract to $4.20 lower toward the front.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions, which was $5 higher in Kansas, $5-$6 higher in Nebraska, $5 higher in the western Corn Belt, and compared to two weeks earlier, $7 higher in the Texas Panhandle.

Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher in Nebraska at $372 and $10-$10.50 higher in the western Corn Belt at $372-$372.50.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 66¢ higher Friday afternoon at $366.77/cwt. Select was $1.34 higher at $350.27.

Technical support continued to underpin Grain and Soybean futures Friday.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher through Mar ’27 and then fractionally higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

******************************

Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, helped along by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, at least for the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 238 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 117 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 8¢ to 39¢ higher through the front six contracts.

******************************

Closure of the federal government, except for what are deemed essential services, is soon to enter the fourth week. Although USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service continues to provide many daily reports utilized by cattle producers, much other pertinent information remains unavailable. For instance, the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates have already fallen victim. The monthly Cattle on Feed report was supposed to be published next Friday.

“Market data and information are critical to modern agricultural industry functions – you can’t manage (or assess) what you don’t measure,” says Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University, in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets.

“Most livestock producers are what economists would describe as price takers,” Tonsor explains. “The available set of market data and information for livestock sellers has long been justification for public investment in collection and reporting efforts by USDA (and other governmental agencies). Over the past couple decades this evolution has included implementation of LMR (livestock mandatory reporting) extending the breadth, depth, and precision of market information in meat and livestock markets.”

At the same time, Tonsor notes ongoing discussions about the value of public data, its cost and net return. He mentions one of the few efforts made to determine those answers relative to USDA data. It was a project conducted by the Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics. Jayson Lusk, agricultural economist, led the project. He is now vice president and dean of agricultural programs at Oklahoma State University. From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Productsreports the findings.

“One of the earliest and most robust findings from the field of experimental economics is that public knowledge of prices is a key factor driving whether a market attains competitive equilibrium (Davis and Holt, 1993),” according to the report. “Market participants often see public sources of data as more objective and credible than private data. Added credibility gives market participants confidence in using public data as the basis of trade (for example, as the base in a formula contract) or forecasting, without fear of that the data has been manipulated by the provider.”

Of course, that’s a mere sliver of the research analyzed in the report.

“For decades U.S. agriculture has been the envy of the world regarding available volume and quality of market information,” Tonsor says. “While I would say that broadly still applies, it is very easy to take that for granted.”