WLI

Cattle futures closed lower at the end of a volatile session Friday. Although cash fed cattle prices improved, wariness remained ahead of the semiannual Cattle inventory report (see below), while traders squared books for end of the week and month.

Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.11 lower (47¢ to $2.57 lower), except for 35¢ higher in spot Feb. 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.66 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.14 lower (12¢ to $1.75 lower) except for 95¢ higher in spot Feb. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 78¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in new spot Mar.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate to active on good demand in all cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt., which was $4-$6 higher in the Texas Panhandle, $4-$7 higher in Kansas, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt. 

Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378, which was $5-$8 higher in Nebraska and $8-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.10 lower Friday afternoon at $365.56/cwt. Select was $1.22 higher at $361.94. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.36 lower and Select was 45¢ lower.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 531,000 head was 4,000 head fewer than the previous week and 71,000 head fewer than the same week last year as packers slow production. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 2.3 million head was 337,000 head fewer (-12.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 2.1 billion pounds was 244.8 million pounds less (-10.5%).

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Friday with likely profit taking and month-end position squaring.

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower through Jly ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, with investors squaring books for the end of the month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 179 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 29 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 223 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 19¢ to 27¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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All told, markets will likely view the semiannual Cattle report as neutral to a touch friendly, confirming that beef replacement heifer retention remains sluggish, while the beef cow herd begins the year even smaller.

Beef cows numbered 27.6 million head Jan. 1, which was 284,800 fewer (-1.0%) than a year earlier. Moreover, the beef cow inventory was steady to less year over year in all states with 1 million or more (in order by total head): Texas (-1%); Oklahoma (steady); Missouri (-3%); Nebraska (-1%); South Dakota (steady); Montana (-2%); Kansas (-7%).

Heifers for beef cow replacement of 4.7 million head were 41,700 head more (0.9%) year over year. Year-over-year inventory increased in Texas (8.3%), Oklahoma (1.5%), Nebraska (1.8%) and Montana (1.6%). Replacement inventory remained unchanged in Oklahoma and South Dakota but declined 3.8% in Missouri.

Milk cows of 9.6 million head were 187,500 head more (2%) than the same time last year.

All cattle and calves of 86.2 million head were 316,900 head fewer (-0.3%) year over year.

The number of cattle outside feedlots was 24.5 million head, which was 218,600 head more (0.9%) than a year earlier.

Cattle futures eased mostly lower Thursday with likely profit taking, the lack of direction in weekly cash fed cattle trade and positioning ahead of USDA’s Cattle report due to be published on Friday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.o5 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.27 lower, except for $1.00 higher in expiring Jan.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $234-$236/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $233-$236 in Kansas, $234-$236 in Nebraska and mainly $235 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $370 in Nebraska and $365-$370 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.08 lower Thursday afternoon at $367.66/cwt. Select was $2.85 lower at $360.72.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ higher. Soybean futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Thursday, pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 59 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 172 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.40 to $2.20 higher through the front six contracts with added risk premium based on tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, helped by early cash fed cattle bids on the upper end of last week’s range.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.10 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.93 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $234-$236/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $233-$236 in Kansas, $234-$236 in Nebraska and mainly $235 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $370 in Nebraska and $365-$370 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.63 higher Wednesday afternoon at $369.74/cwt. Select was $1.62 lower at $363.57.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Wednesday, helped along by the declining U.S. dollar value.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by President Trump’s claim that a deal is near for making gasolene blended with ethanol available year-round.

KC HRW Wheat futures were 9¢ higher with likely short covering.

Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed on Wednesday, with the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged, as was widely anticipated.

“Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” according to the FOMC statement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 12 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 40 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 69¢ to $1.13 higher through the front six contracts.

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David Anderson, Extension livestock economist at Texas A&M University provides further perspective about the percentage of heifers on feed published in the latest Cattle on Feed report.

As noted in Cattle Current earlier this week, the 4.44 million heifers on feed Jan. 1 were 140,000 head fewer (-3.1%) year over year, representing 38.7% of the on-feed mix, which was the same as a year earlier.

“It was the fewest Jan. 1 heifers on feed since 2019,” Anderson says in the late-January issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. But he points out last year’s number included spayed heifers imported from Mexico before the border was closed.

“Approximately 145,000 fewer spayed heifers were imported from Mexico in the months leading up to Jan. 1, 2026, compared to Jan. 1, 2025. So, the decline in heifers on feed could largely reflect fewer imports rather than a significant decline in domestic heifer feeders being placed,” Anderson explains. “While the decline in heifers on feed suggests some more herd retention, the reduction in supplies from Mexico and heifers as a percent of all cattle on feed indicates little herd rebuilding from additional heifer retention.”

USDA’s Cattle report with overall inventory numbers will be published Friday afternoon.

Cattle futures meandered Tuesday, awaiting weekly cash direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 24¢ lower, except for an average of 2¢ higher in the back two contracts. Feeder Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 29¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 19¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $234-$236/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $233-$236 in Kansas $234-$236 in Nebraska and mainly $235 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $370 in Nebraska and $365-$370 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $368.11/cwt. Select was $1.93 lower at $365.19.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Tuesday, supported by tech stocks, but pressured by health care.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 215 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.31 to $1.93 higher through the front six contracts.

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Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months, according to the latest Creighton University Rural Main Street Index. However, the January confidence index rose to 44.0, its highest reading since February 2023, and up from 40.9 in December.

“Despite $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,” explains Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “More than one of three bankers, (34.7%) indicated that their local economy was currently in a recession. Another 26.9% expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026.”

The overall Rural Mainstreet Index was 52.0 in January, rising 1.9 points month to month and reaching the highest level since July 2023. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. It is based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices helped Cattle futures continue higher on Monday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.10 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.35 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in all cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $3 higher in Kansas at $233-$236/cwt., mostly $1-$3 higher in Nebraska at $234-$236, and mostly $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $235. Prices in the Texas Panhandle were $234-$236; there was no recent tests for a comparison.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $370 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $365-$368.

The five-area direct weekly weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $2.20 higher at $234.70/cwt. The weekly weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $4.16 higher at $368.80.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 2¢ lower Monday afternoon at $368.90/cwt. Select was $4.73 higher at $367.12.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Monday on likely profit taking.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 9¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 313 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 34 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 100 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 3¢ to 37¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University provides further perspective on the monthly Cattle on Feed report, in his weekly market comments.

Peel notes total feedlot placements during the last six months account for 92% of the current feedlot inventory and were down 8.2% year over year. As mentioned in the previous Cattle Current, feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 5.4% fewer cattle year over year in December, according to the latest report.

December marketings were 1.8% more than a year earlier. Peel explains it was the first increase in monthly marketings in eight months, but total marketings for the past six months were down 6.9% year over year.

The on-feed inventory Jan. 1 of 11.5 million head was 3.2% less than a year earlier, representing the 14^thconsecutive month of declining inventories, according to Peel. “Average feedlot inventories for the past year (12-month moving average) are now at the lowest level since September 2018 and are down 3.8% from the cyclical peak in September 2022,” he says.

Listen to more or Peel’s market insights here.