WLI

Cattle futures closed higher Friday with stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values’ continued gains. Reaction to the latest Cattle on Feed report could vary (see below).

Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.18 higher (67¢ higher toward the back to $2.52 higher in spot Feb). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 66¢ higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.47 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.80 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices through Friday afternoon were mainly higher with trade ranging from moderate to active on good demand in Nebraska to moderate on good demand in other regions, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1-$3 higher in Nebraska at $234-$236/cwt., mostly $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at mainly $235 and unevenly steady in Kansas at mostly $233. Prices in the Texas Panhandle were $234-$236; there was no recent tests for a comparison.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $5 higher in Nebraska at mainly $370 and $2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $365-$368.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.47 higher Friday afternoon at $368.92/cwt. Select was 66¢ higher at $362.39. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.54 higher and Select was $2.20 higher. The Choice-Select spread was $4.34 wider week to week on Friday at $6.53

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 535,000 head was 27,000 head fewer than the previous week and 59,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 1.8 million head was 272,000 head fewer (-13.1%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 1.6 billion pounds was 195.5 million pounds less (-10.8%).

Grain and Soybean futures continued higher Friday, supported by export demand, weather risk in the U.S. on intensity of the current winter storm and hotter drier conditions in South America.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ higher through Mar ‘27. KC HRW Wheat futures were 9¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 285 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 65 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.29 to $1.71 higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view Friday’s Cattle on Feed report as neutral to either side of even depending on the perspective.

Feedlot with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.6 million head in December, which was 88,000 head fewer (-5.4%) than the same time last year. Ahead of the report, various estimates pegged placements at 5-7% less, so the USDA number is either in line with estimates or placements were about 1.5% more than anticipated.

In terms of placement weights, 47% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 40% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

December marketings of 1.8 million head were 31,000 head more than the previous year (1.8%), which was in line with pre-report estimates.

The on-feed inventory Jan. 1 of 11.5 million head was 373,000 head fewer (-3.2%), also in line with the consensus of pre-report estimates.

This month’s report also included the number of steers and heifers on feed. Heifers represented 38.7% of the on-feed mix at the beginning of the year, which was the same as a year earlier.

“Shocking in these values is the percentage of heifers on feed being up from October (+0.6%) and flat with last January,” say analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “This inventory level has the ratio of steers to heifers at 1.58 steers per heifer on feed which is down from last year’s high of 1.66 observed in April. For context, expansion occurred following the last cycle in 2015, during which this ratio was over 2 steers observed per heifer. Increases in that value followed lows reported during 2011 when that ratio had been bouncing between 1.6 to 1.7 for the couple of years prior. While the influence of beef on dairy in the feedlot mix is unknown, at face value, the current report does not paint a large expansionary picture for the Cattle report next week.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday, awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 18¢ lower, except for unchanged to an average of 3¢ higher in three contracts. 

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 41¢ higher, except for unchanged in one contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $233/cwt. in Kansas, mostly $233 in Nebraska and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $365 in Nebraska and $363-$365 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.34 higher Thursday afternoon at $367.45/cwt. Select was 72¢ lower at $361.73.

Grain and Soybean futures firmed Thursday, led by Kansas City Wheat, with likely weather premium for the massive and frigid winter storm predicted for much of the country.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Thursday on declining trade worries, recovering more of the steep losses that began the trading week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 306 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 37 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 211 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 30¢ to 49¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued higher Wednesday, supported by more bullish outside markets, recently higher wholesale beef values and likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report, which many expect to be bullish. Estimates ahead of the report see December placement down about 5%, December marketings about 2% more due to an extra marketing day and total cattle on feed Jan. 1 more than 2% less year over year.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 46¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.33 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $233/cwt. in Kansas, mostly $233 in Nebraska and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $365 in Nebraska and $363-$365 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.35 higher Wednesday afternoon at $366.11/cwt. Select was $2.61 higher at $362.45.

Grain futures were lower on Wednesday, but Soybean futures were higher with support likely including short covering and weather risk based on South American weather.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply higher Wednesday, as President Trump reversed course once again, backing off threatened tariffs on countries opposing his plans to take control of Greenland.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 588 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 78 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 270 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 30¢ to 49¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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So far this week, calf and feeder cattle prices at auction are following last week’s uneven trend.

Nationwide, last week, feeder steers and heifers sold mostly $5/cwt. lower to $5 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Demand remains good to very good with the best demand for grazing weights and prices are still at high levels even if auctions aren’t setting new records every day,” say AMS analysts. 

Last week’s trade volume of 451,100 head at auction, direct and via video-internet was 32,400 head fewer than the previous week but about 25,000 head more than the same week last year.

Cattle futures firmed Tuesday and regained some of the steep losses from the previous session, which was tied to the unfounded rumor of New World screwworm in the U.S. Gains to start the week were likely limited to bearish outside markets (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.17 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.61 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light to moderate demand in the western Corn Belt to inactive elsewhere through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $232/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $233/cwt. in Kansas, mostly $233 in Nebraska and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $365 in Nebraska and $363-$365 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 43¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $364.76/cwt. Select was 49¢ lower at $359.84.

Grain and Soybean futures were down on worries about potential new U.S. tariffs and retaliation from the countries affected.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were unchanged to fractionally mixed. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Tuesday, driven down by more threats from President Trump to impose steep tariffs on a wide range of trading partners opposing his threat to take control of Greenland.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 872 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 143 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 561 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 14¢ to 19¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon.

Last week, FOB live prices were $233/cwt. in Kansas, mostly $233 in Nebraska and mostly $232 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $365 in Nebraska and $363-$365 in the western Corn Belt.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 64¢ higher at $232.50. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was 35¢ lower at 364.64.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.95 higher Monday afternoon at $364.33/cwt. Select was 14¢ higher at $360.33.

Futures and equities markets were closed Monday. Traders on Tuesday will be looking to see where sentiment lands following Friday’s down day in Cattle futures and ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.