WLI

Cattle futures closed lower Friday with likely technical selling and profit taking ahead of the three-day weekend magnified by confirmation of more cases of New World screwworm (NWS) near the Texas border and an unconfirmed rumor of a case discovered on this side of the U.S. border.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.55 lower. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.23 lower.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 5¢ lower in four contracts (mostly up front), to an average of 28¢ higher. During the same period, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.16 higher (17¢ to $1.95 higher), except for 85¢ lower in the back contract.

Weekly negotiated cash fed cattle trade got underway Friday with prices mainly steady to higher.

Through the afternoon, trade ranged from moderate to active on good demand in Nebraska and was  moderate on good demand in Kansas and the western Corn Belt.

FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $233/cwt., $1 higher in Nebraska at $233 and steady in the western Corn Belt at mostly $232. Dressed delivered prices were steady in Nebraska at mostly $365 and steady to $2 lower in the western Corn belt at mostly $363-$365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 higher Friday afternoon at $362.38/cwt. Select was 48¢ higher at $360.19.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 562,000 head was 9,000 head more than the previous week but 39,000 head fewer (-6.5%)than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 1.3 million head was 220,000 head fewer (-14.9%) than the same time last year.

Estimated beef production last week of 503.4 million pounds was 10.1 million pounds more than the previous week but 21.2 million pounds less (-4.0%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to date beef production of 1.1 billion pounds was 163.9 million pounds less (-12.7%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher on Friday with likely short covering and positioning ahead of the three-day weekend.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher through Jly ’27, perhaps also supported by lingering doubts about USDA’s high yield estimates. However, they were down an average of 18’4¢ through the front six contracts week to week on Friday, pressured by USDA’s continued high yield estimates in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ higher with an added boost from weather premium tied to weekend weather forecasts.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 83 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 25¢ to 28¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased projected feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) for 2026 in the January Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased by $12 to $352/cwt. in the first quarter, $355 in the second quarter and $359 in the third quarter for an annual average price of $357.

“Starting off 2026, weekly prices for slaughter steers and feeder steers have recovered more than 60% of the decline from their respective highs last year to the lows that occurred in November,” ERS analysts say. They explain feeder steer prices last year peaked at $383.48 in Oklahoma City the middle of October. Prices then declined $66 over the course of six weeks to $317.71. By Jan. 5, prices were $362.34, which was $93 more year over year, representing a 68% recovery from the late-2025 price decline.

As mentioned in Cattle Current earlier last week, USDA increased slightly the projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer price, in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, expected prices were $232/cwt. in the first quarter, $234 in the second and $237 in the third for an annual average of $236, which was $1 higher.

Similar to the feeder steer price trajectory, five-aera direct weighted average FOB live fed steer prices peaked last year at $244.25/cwt. the week ending August 24, 2025. Prices declined nearly $33 to $211.53 the week ending November 30, 2025. Prices had recovered 62% by the middle of this month.

Estimated beef production for this year of 25.74 billion pounds was projected slightly higher than the previous month and would be 265 million pounds less (-1%) than the forecast total for 2025.

Cattle futures resumed higher Thursday.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.62 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.76 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $232/cwt. in Kansas and mostly $232 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.24 higher Thursday afternoon at $360.77/cwt. Select was $2.06 higher at $359.71.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed on Thursday.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower. However, Soybean futures were 6¢ to 10¢ higher with some support including Brazilian production forecast to be less than expected.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, with support from tech stocks and a decline in oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 292 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 58 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $2.38 to $2.73 lower through the front six contracts on easing U.S. political rhetoric regarding Iran.

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Keeping in mind still-delayed USDA reports due to the earlier government shutdown, steer slaughter through November had declined roughly 6.7% to around 14.2 million head — the largest annual decline since the 1970s — according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC). Heifer slaughter was estimated to be 8.2% less at approximately 9.2 million head.

“Cattle slaughter in 2025 was characterized by tight feeder supplies that reduced available fed cattle inventories, while record prices have incentivized some degree of retention, especially for cows,” LMIC analysts say in the early-January Livestock Monitor.

As of the end of November, federally inspected cattle slaughter reported by USDA-NASS for 2025 was down 7.1% to just over 26.7 million head, according to the LMIC.

“Including data for actual and estimated daily slaughter in December from USDA-AMS, total slaughter for the year is about 29.1 million head, which equates to a year-to-year loss of roughly -6.9%,” LMIC analysts explain. “For context, the last time slaughter posted year-to-year declines in the 7% range was from 2013 to 2014 (7.1%); slaughter then bottomed out the following year in 2015.”

Cattle futures softened Wednesday ahead of the week’s negotiated cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.28 lower.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.17 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $232/cwt. in Kansas and mostly $232 in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $358.53/cwt. Select was 47¢ higher at $357.65.

Grain and Soybean futures finally found some footing following the bearish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released earlier in the week.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. KC HRW Wheat futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were  mostly unchanged to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday, led by tech and bank stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 42 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 37 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 238 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 10¢ lower to 16¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures closed strongly higher Tuesday. Support included the sharp decrease in Corn futures, higher wholesale beef values and increasing optimism about higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.36 higher.  Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $5.42 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $232-$233/cwt., mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 88¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $357.99/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $358.05.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Tuesday with follow-through pressure from the previous day’s bearish World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 5¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 7¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 10¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 398 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 24 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.12 to $1.55 higher through the front six contracts, bolstered by increased geopolitical risk stemming from the conflict in Iran.

Cattle futures were higher Monday helped by the plunge in Corn futures, which was tied to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below).

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 82¢ higher (30¢ to $1.65 higher). Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.50 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $232-$233/cwt., mainly steady in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt at mostly $232/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $365.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was 18¢ higher at $231.86. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.13 higher at $364.99.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.48 higher Monday afternoon at $357.11/cwt. Select was $5.88 higher at $358.05. The Choice-Select spread turned negative by 94¢.

As alluded to, Corn futures sank on Monday beneath the weight of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Toward the close, through near Sep contracts, Corn futures were 15¢ to 24¢ lower. KC HRW Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 13¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 86 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 62 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 31¢ to 46¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased slightly the projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer price, in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Compared to the previous month, expected prices were $232/cwt. in the first quarter, $234 in the second and $237 in the third for an annual average of $236, which was $1 higher.

“Cattle prices for 2026 are raised on recent price data for the first quarter and tighter fed cattle supplies expected in the second half of the year,” say ERS analysts.

Estimated beef production for the year of 25.74 billion pounds was slightly higher than the previous month and would be 265 million pounds less (-1%) than the forecast total for 2025.

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

USDA shocked plenty of folks by increasing domestic yield and production rather than decreasing it as many had expected. Instead, yield estimate increased 0.5 bushels per acre to 186.5 and projected harvested area increased by 1.3 million acres for estimated production of 17 billion bushels, which was 269 million more than the previous month’s forecast.

Projected corn stocks rose by 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. However, the season-average corn price received by producers was raised by 10¢ cents to $4.10 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean production estimated at 4.3 billion bushels was  up 9 million bushels with yield unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acres and harvested area increasing by 0.1 million acres to 80.4 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 was projected at $10.20 per bushel, down 30¢, reflecting reported NASS prices during the first quarter of the marketing year and expectations for future marketings and prices. The soybean meal price was forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price was unchanged at 53¢ per pound.

WheatThe outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat was for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected ending stocks increased 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8% from the previous year. The season-average farm price declined 10¢ per bushel to $4.90.