WLI

There were too few transactions to trend, but early negotiated cash fed cattle prices were sharply lower at $123/cwt. in Kansas on a live basis at $200 dressed in Nebraska.

Cattle futures continued to slide as traders closed out the books for the month and open interest continued to erode.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 82¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.77 lower.

Wholesale beef values were lower on Choice and firm on Select with light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.30 lower Tuesday afternoon at $231.84/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $218.21.

Corn futures closed mainly fractionally mixed.

Soybean futures continued to slide, closing 4¢-6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Pressure included less earnings than expected from Google’s owner, Alphabet. Support included chatter about headway in trade talks with China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 54 points.

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Stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels pushed the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) 0.9% higher in March, compared to the previous month. The monthly composite index was 101.9 in March. It tracks the health and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry. 

Sub-indices of the RPI were higher, as well. The Current Situation Index increased 1.5% to 101.8. It declined the previous three months.

The Expectations Index increased 0.3% to 102.1. “March represented the fourth consecutive increase in the Expectations Index, which propelled the forward-looking component to its highest level in 11 months,” according to the RPI report.

Index values above 100 signal a period of expansion. Values below 100 signal a period of contraction.

Early two-sided trading in Cattle futures gave way to continued pressure from last week, tied to volatility in Lean Hog futures, technicals and growing pessimism about increasing fed cattle supplies during a time that domestic demand appears static, while international demand is a bit softer year over year.

Except for 22¢ higher in spot Apr, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ lower.

Except for 55¢ higher in spot May, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady on Choice and lower on Select with light to moderate demand and moderate offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 15¢ higher Monday afternoon at $233.14/cwt. Select was $1.69 lower at $217.72.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher on Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 15 points.

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“With the exception of the cull cow market, cattle and beef markets are behaving seasonally with little underlying trend in most markets,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “All and all, we are seeing the most stable cattle and beef markets in many years. Until or unless outside shocks rise up to impact supply or demand conditions, expect cattle and beef markets to remain pretty calm in the coming months.”

Peel points out strong demand for grazing cattle kept calf and stocker prices near a seasonal peak through April. He believes prices are currently at or just past the seasonal peak.

“From a forage perspective, excellent moisture conditions suggest tremendous pasture and hay potential,” Peel says. “The latest Drought Monitor shows the least amount of dry conditions across the country since the Drought Monitor began in 2000. The upcoming May Crop Production report from USDA-NASS will likely show that May 1 hay stocks are low following reduced December 1 hay stocks and cold, wet conditions affecting cattle production this past winter. However, good hay production prospects for 2019 alleviate much of the concern about end of crop year stock levels as the 2019 hay crop year begins.”

When all was said done last week, negotiated cash fed cattle prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $126/cwt., but $2-$3 less in the north at $125-$127 in Nebraska and $128 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $2-$3 lower at mostly $205 in Nebraska and mostly $205-$206 in the western Corn Belt.

Cattle futures edged mostly lower Friday, but apparent short covering and positioning helped staunch the downward momentum of the previous two sessions.

Except for 50¢ higher in spot Apr, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 32¢ lower.

Except for 40¢ higher in spot May and an average of 7¢ higher in the back two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 41¢ lower.

Wholesale beef values were steady on light to moderate demand and offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 6¢ higher Friday afternoon at $232.99/cwt. Select was 34¢ lower at $219.41.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher on Friday, buoyed by estimated GDP growth in the first quarter, which was more than expected.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 3.2% in the first quarter of this year, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 27 points.

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“I am optimistic that live and feeder markets will offer some correction to the sharp moves down, possibly if we see strong seasonal cattle and beef movements. But, the stronger than expected cattle market story might be over,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets.

Although carcass weights continue lower than last year, at least for a while yet, and wholesale beef values appear ready for a seasonal surge, increasing cattle supplies will continue to weigh on prices through the summer.

“The inventory of market-ready cattle, as proxied by the calculated cattle on feed over 120 days, are nothing short of enormous,” Koontz says. “Orderly and aggressive marketings through the remainder of April, May, and June are essential.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly $3 lower in Nebraska Thursday at mostly $127/cwt. Dressed trade was mostly $3 lower at mostly $205. Dressed sales were $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $205-$206.

Pessimism began to build about looming cattle supplies as some funds began to unwind long positions. Technical pressure that began in Cattle futures the previous session found a new gear on Thursday, getting more fuel from limit-down moves in Lean Hog futures, which was tied to the lack of exports to China.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.54 lower, for an average of about $4.50 lower in the last two sessions. 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.27 lower, for an average of about $6 lower in the last two sessions.

Wholesale beef values were steady to weak on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 3¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $232.93/cwt. Select was 53¢ lower at $219.75.

Corn futures closed 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures bounced back and closed 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Thursday. Despite mostly positive quarterly earnings reports, the main pressure was attributed to significantly lower 3M earnings than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 16 points.

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The latest monthly Livestock Slaughter report from USDA provides further overall perspective regarding the weather impact on carcass weights. 

Average dressed steer weight in March was 11 lbs. less year over year at 867 lbs.  For January-March it was 8 lbs. less at 878 lbs. Average dressed heifer weight was 13 lbs. less year over year at 807 lbs. It was 11 lbs. less for January to March at 817 lbs.

Keeping in mind one less business day in March this year, there were 1.22 million steers harvested under federal inspection in March, which was 105,900 head fewer (-7.9%) than the previous year. There were 42,900 more heifers slaughtered (+5.69%) at 797,300 head. Combined steer and heifer slaughter of 2.02 million head was 63,000 head fewer (-3.03%) than the previous March.

Total cattle slaughter under federal inspection of 2.61 million head in March were 51,100 fewer (-1.92%) than the prior year.

Total commercial beef production in March of 2.12 billion lbs. was 85.8 million lbs. less (-3.89%) year over year.

Total commercial red meat production was 86.8 million lbs. less (-1.92%) at 4.43 billion lbs.

Cattle futures headed south Wednesday, amid presumable profit taking, technical pressure and chatter that the seasonal top in cash fed cattle prices is on the books.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.99 lower ($1.50 to $2.77 lower), with the heaviest trade in a month. 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.66 lower ($1.72 lower at the back to $3.10 lower in spot May).

Despite futures negativity, negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at steady money in the Southern Plains at $126/cwt. on moderate trade and demand. There were too few transactions to trend in other regions, but the tone of early sales was decidedly lower in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt.

There were 461 head offered in the weekly Fed Cattle Exchange Auction: 124 head (one lot of Kansas steers) sold for a weighted average price of $127, for delivery at 1-9 days.

Wholesale beef values were lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.15 lower Wednesday afternoon at $232.96/cwt. Select was 98¢ lower at $220.28.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures continued lower, closing down mostly 6¢ to 7¢.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower on Wednesday amid mixed quarterly earnings reports and more fretting about the trade impasse with China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 59 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 18 points.

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Nearly 150,000 growers in Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas are affected by flooding, according to Farm Market iD (FMID), a provider of farm and grower data.

According to FMID, there are nearly 90,000 grain bins located in the flooded areas, which are valued at $4 billion for the structures. The 1.24 billion bu. of storage capacity in the affected area equates to 31% of on-farm grain storage.

“The amount and cost of lost grain and the construction costs to rebuild will impact farmers for years, and some may have a hard time recovering,” says Steve Rao, CEO of FMID. “That said, the majority of on-farm grain storage has not been affected.”

FMID estimates there are 16 million acres in the affected areas intended for planting to corn, wheat or soybeans.