WLI

Cattle futures regained some ground Thursday. Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.17 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.03 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. So far this week, FOB live prices are $3-$4 lower at $238-$240/cwt. and dressed delivered prices are $8 lower at $375.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand.

FOB live prices this week are mainly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $240. Dressed delivered prices in the region last week were $383.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242 in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in Kansas.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.85 lower Thursday afternoon at $400.79. Select was $3.73 lower at $379.95.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced back Thursday, ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial closed higher Thursday with more traders apparently betting on the Fed cutting interest rates next week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 617 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 55 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.23 to $1.43 lower through the front six contracts.

Live Cattle futures firmed and clawed mostly higher Wednesday, while all but the front months drifted lower in Feeder Cattle.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.21 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.40 lower, except for an average of $1.06 higher in the front two contracts.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices are mostly $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $240/cwt. and dressed delivered prices are $8 lower in Nebraska at $375.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in Kansas and Nebraska. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.03 lower Wednesday afternoon at $405.64. Select was $3.28 lower at $383.68.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower again Wednesday with likely continued positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower, except for 2¢ higher in waning spot Sep. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday, but with positive inflation data.

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1% in August, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was more favorable than the trade expected. On an unadjusted basis, however, the index for final demand rose 2.6% for the 12 months ended in August.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 220 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 19 points. The NASDAQ was up 6 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 98¢ to $1.13 higher through the front six contracts.

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Since 2022, calf prices have increased by 135.6%; feeder cattle prices are up by 107.4%; fed prices have increased 70.0%; boxed beef prices are up 59.2%; and retail prices have increased by 21.3%, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. However, he also points out the cost of inputs has increased more and faster than the value of outputs for all of the margin sectors — stockers, feedlot, packers and retailers.

“Up to this point, packers have faced most of the losses due to lousy buy-sell margins,” Peel says. “Feedlots have avoided much of the margin challenges thus far, largely due to the strongly up trending market combined with the time lag between placements and marketings (extended by more days on feed in most cases) and a sharp decrease in feed costs.  Feedlot cost of gain is down over 28% since the peak in early 2023.”

Stocker producers are being squeezed hard from both directions, Peel explains, as high calf prices increase stocker purchase cost and feedlots are competing more for limited feeder supplies, including lighter weight feeders due relatively low cost of gain. 

“Retailers have faced relatively less of the margin challenge up to this point due to strong consumer beef demand and ample beef supplies,” Peel says. “Beef production is declining faster now, and retailers will face more challenges as beef production continues to decline in the coming months.”

In the meantime, Peel says, “Cow-calf producers will continue to enjoy strong returns and the higher calf prices that encourage herd rebuilding.  Those higher calf prices will continue to work their way through the industry up to consumers in a complex set of market dynamics affecting the various sectors in a variety of ways.”

Cattle futures plunged Tuesday with technical correction, exaggerated by apparent fund selling and wariness over seasonal pressure on cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $5.93 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were limit down $9.25, except for $7.80 lower in the back contract.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to limited on light to moderate demand in the North through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early dressed delivered trades in the North at $375-$382 and a few FOB live sales in the western Corn Belt at $237-$239.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in the other regions. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.02 lower Tuesday afternoon at $407.67. Select was $1.62 higher at $386.96.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday with likely profit taking and position squaring ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 80 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 47¢ to 57¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were mostly higher Monday but hesitantly.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 58¢ higher, except for 22¢ lower in spot Oct. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 98¢ higher, except for 65¢ lower in away Sep.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $242/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and $242-$243 in the other regions. Dressed delivered prices were mainly $383.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $1.05 less at $242.55/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $2.50 less at $383.15.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.07 lower Monday afternoon at $409.69. Select was 15¢ lower at $385.34.

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Monday with likely short covering and positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 11¢ higher. Soybean futures were 3¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 114 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 98 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 59¢ to 70¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Calves and feeder cattle continued to sell mainly higher last week. Keeping in mind the fewer business days due to the holiday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) pegged the advance at mostly $5-$10 higher, with calf prices steady to $5 higher in some areas and $10-$12 higher in parts of the Southeast.

“In many areas producers are moving calves ahead of normal due to the record prices, and at the other end many are holding on as the upward trend continues …” according to AMS analysts.

Trade volume of 192,700 head at auction, direct and via video-internet was 1,000 head fewer than the previous weeks and about 24,000 head fewer than the same week last year.

The CME Feeder Cattle index was $2.56 higher week to week on Friday at $367.03.

“What may be more amazing than anything is that this market could easily continue increasing in the current environment. As cattle producers begin to retain heifers to grow the herd, there will be fewer feeder cattle available, which will restrict beef production despite the ever-increasing dressed weights,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the university of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As producers navigate the high price environment, it is important to manage price risk and financial risk … The basic aspect that makes risk management more important today than a few years ago is the quantity of dollars necessary to play in the game.”

Cattle futures were softer again Friday with pressure from declining wholesale beef values and lower outside markets.

Live cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.34 lower, except for unchanged in spot Sep.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.60 lower and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.80 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $242/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $242-$243 and $2-$3 lower in the North at $242-$243. Dressed delivered prices were mostly $2 lower at mainly $383.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.45 lower Friday afternoon at $410.76. Select was $2.58 lower at $385.19. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $4.65 lower and Select was $4.81 lower.

 Total cattle slaughter during the holiday-shortened week of 487,000 head was 78,000 head fewer than the previous week and 61,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 19.9 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-7.0%) than the same time last year. Total year-to-date beef production of 17.4 billion pounds was 747.7 million pounds less (-4.1%).

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Friday with 

Corn futures unchanged to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Sep ’26 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday as concerns about the domestic economy ran ahead of optimism for interest rate cuts tied to a sluggish labor outlook.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August and has shown little change since April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was also little changed at 4.3%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10¢ in August to $35.63. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 220 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 20 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 7 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.30 to $1.61 lower through the front six contracts.

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Market access obstacles continued to weigh heavily on exports of U.S. beef, with the vast majority of plants still ineligible to ship to China, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

U.S. beef exports declined 19% year over year in July to 89,579 metric tons, and export value dropped 17% to $752.5 million, the lowest value since 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the USMEF.

“The plant registration impasse with China unfortunately drags on, and it has left U.S. beef essentially shut out of the market after exporters worked through their eligible inventories,” explains Dan Halstrom USMEF president and CEO. “Demand elsewhere has remained fairly resilient, even in the face of higher pricing, but restoring access to China is clearly the urgent priority. Export value and share of production exported declined in July, reflecting the loss of competing bids from Chinese buyers.”

From January through July, exports were 8% below last year in volume (691,800 mt) and down 7.5% in value ($5.67 billion).

July beef exports equated to $368.09 per head of fed slaughter, down 12% from a year ago. Through July, the per-head average was down 4% to $403.89.