WLI

Cattle futures were mixed Tuesday after a strong start with likely pressure from more bearish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 10¢ lower in six contracts to an average of 14¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle futures were mixed, from an average of 85¢ lower in four contracts to an average of $1.57 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $242.00/cwt. and steady in the North at $245. Dressed delivered prices were steady at mainly $385.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was 65¢ less week to week at $243.60/cwt. The dressed delivered fed steer price was 52¢ lower at $385.65.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.99 lower Tuesday afternoon at $413.42. Select was $3.83 lower at $386.17.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Tuesday. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ to 5¢ higher on yield pressure. Trade uncertainty helped pressure Kansas City Wheat futures 8¢ to 9¢ lower and Soybean futures 11¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday with pressure tariff uncertainty stemming from Friday’s federal appeals court ruling that most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 249 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 44 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 175 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.60 to $1.69 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment declined in August for the third consecutive month, according to the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index. It was 10 points lower month to month at 125. The Future Expectations Index drove the decline, falling 16 points to 123, the lowest level since last September. Conversely, the Current Conditions Index rose 2 points to 129.

“Sentiment differed widely among producers according to whether their operations focused mainly on crops or livestock,” according to Ag Barometer analysts. “Crop producers responded with much less optimism than their livestock counterparts, reflecting the profitability disparity between the two enterprises. Beef cattle operations, in particular, are experiencing record profitability as the smallest cattle inventory since 1951 has pushed cattle prices to record levels. This stands in sharp contrast to returns for crop production, which have weakened in 2025.”

The August barometer survey took place from Aug. 11-15, 2025.

Cattle futures regained the previous session’s losses and more on Friday as traders retrenched for the beginning of a new month.

Live cattle futures were an average of $2.70 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.89 higher.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.61 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.23 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska to mostly inactive on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $242.00/cwt. and steady in the North at $245. Dressed delivered prices were steady at mainly $385.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.00 higher Friday afternoon at $415.41. Select was $4.16 higher at $390.00. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $7.50 higher and Select was $6.34 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 565,000 head was 14,000 head more than the previous week but 52,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 19.5 million head was 1.4 million head fewer (-6.9%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 16.9 billion pounds was 707 million pounds less (-4.0%).

Grain and Soybean futures strengthened again Friday on likely month-end short covering. 

Corn futures were 8¢ to 12¢ higher through Jly ’26 and then mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher with short covering at the end of the month and ahead of the long weekend. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures were an average of 8’5¢ higher through the front six contracts, supported by increasing belief that this year’s crop may be record-large but smaller than what USDA projected in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Also on Friday, Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher. Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday with likely week-end and month-end position squaring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 92 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 41 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 249 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 59¢ to 62¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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When cattle prices ultimately peak and then decline, and to what degree, is unknown, however, current dynamics suggest strong prices for two more years, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee (UT).

With that in mind, Griffith provides insight to bred heifer values for those considering herd expansion. Based on UT research several years ago, he says young cows bred approximately six months were generally valued at 2.5 times the value of a 550 pound freshly weaned heifer.

“This means young, bred cows (today) would be valued near $4,700 per head for large frame cows with a proven history of producing calves,” Griffith explains in his weekly market comments. “Bred heifers tend to be discounted slightly due to having a higher risk of calving difficulties, rejecting a calf, and ultimately no history of rearing a calf. Thus, either side of $4,000 seems to be the going rate for these animals.”

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday with likely profit taking ahead of the long weekend.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.03 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.87 lower, except for 55¢ higher in expiring Aug.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $2 higher at $242/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand. Last week, FOB live prices were $240 in the Texas Panhandle and $245 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $385-$392 in Nebraska and $385-$390 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.57 higher Thursday afternoon at $414.41. Select was $1.87 lower at $385.84.

Weekly net U.S. beef sales for 2025 the week ending Aug. 21 of 13,600 metric tons were 34% more than the previous week and 40% more than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Mexico and Taiwan.

Grain and Soybean futures strengthened Thursday on likely month-end short covering. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures fractionally mixed to 2¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday with support including strong quarterly corporate earnings from artificial intelligence computing giant, Nvidia, and more domestic economic growth in the second quarter than expected.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025, according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 71 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 115 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 15¢ to 20¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures continued to push higher Wednesday. As the week wears on there is likely to be some profit taking ahead of the long weekend.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 70¢ higher, except for 17¢ lower in waning spot Aug.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 96¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on moderate demand in Kansas to mostly inactive on light to moderate demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some early live FOB trades in Kansas at $242/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $240 in the Southern Plains and $245 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $385-$392 in Nebraska and $385-$390 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Wholesale beef prices softened a touch. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.33 lower Wednesday afternoon at $411.84. Select was $3.05 lower at $387.71.

Grain and Soybean futures settled lower Wednesday. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices crawled higher again Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 147 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 45 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 26¢ to 61¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures rebounded and gained on bullish fundamentals Tuesday, following the previous session’s volatility tied to news of New World screwworm confirmed in a U.S. resident, who was infected while traveling in South America.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.57 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.81 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $240/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $245 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $385-$392 in Nebraska and $385-$390 in the western Corn Belt on a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.68 higher Tuesday afternoon at $413.17. Select was $5.38 higher at $390.76.

Turning to the grain complex, Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Tuesday.  

Toward the close and through Jly contracts,

Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower, pressured by chart resistance.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 4¢ lower with weight including harvest pressure and global supplies.

Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 135 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 94 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were $1.36 to $1.43 lower through the front six contracts.

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Domestic consumer beef demand continues to defy dogeared economic rules of thumb. As beef supplies decrease and retail beef prices increase, demand continues to strengthen. Based on USDA data, the second-quarter all-fresh retail beef demand index reached its highest level in at least 25 years, according to a recent research brief, U.S. Beef Attracts More Customers than it Can Handle from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“Twelve months ago, the question was whether beef demand would hold up at higher prices, but today most analysts are fairly certain that beef value risk is to the upside,” says Brian Earnest, CoBank lead animal protein economist. “Retail per capita beef consumption is headed for 60 pounds this year. U.S. consumers can’t seem to get enough protein these days, and among animal proteins beef remains king.”

According to the most recent inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, core inflation was up 2.9% year-over-year. Beef price increases towered in comparison. The all-fresh retail beef prices surged by 9% for the year, hitting $8.90 per pound. Yet consumer beef demand remains unabated.

Several factors currently shape consumer food buying behaviors and their preference for beef, according to the CoBank research brief: heightened interest in dietary protein, changing health perceptions surrounding beef and the availability of restaurant-quality beef at retail grocery stores.

U.S. cattle producers improved beef carcass quality significantly in recent decades with 95% of U.S. carcasses now grading Choice or higher.

“The COVID-19 pandemic led us to a place where ‘leveling up’ through access to luxury goods is prioritized over luxury services,” Earnest says. “And beef, specifically high-quality beef, is a luxury good that can be accessed for at-home consumption at a fraction of the cost at fine dining establishments.”

Consumer perceptions surrounding the health aspects of eating beef have also improved in recent years. Fitness-conscious consumers who laud protein content for muscle production often favor beef. The advent of GLP-1 medications for weight loss have also sparked more widespread consumer interest in increasing the amount of protein in their diets.